[RostyC]

Originally Posted by geomon

You have to be careful that you're not taking US (only) inventories as world wide demand has been and continues to grow fueled by both China and India's rise in standards of living...there's lots of them peeps over there that want air conditioning/heat-new toys-cars etc..etc...etc. Our % of WW oil consumption isn't what it once was.

As I don't know what either US or WW inventories are, I hope you're right and Mr Market adjusts to the decreased demand and those speculators get burned (oil burn??).

I think the gasoline inventory was US. The crude inventory I'm not sure about, might be US only. I'll look around at that today if I get time. Good point though it is WW demand.

[LightsChromeHorsepower]

I read yesterday that the demand for gasoline in Calif. has actually dropped in the past couple of years, and that's a trend taking hold in the rest of the U.S. as well.

Another hidden blessing of the high oil prices is that alternative fuels do become more economically viable, and research into them intensifies. Someday, somebody will find an alternative that works.

[solo379]

Well, i can not say it's easy on my business :sad: , but something has to be done. Demand is weak, and supply is high, and it takes time for market readjustment. The only question remains;- Have we had rich bottom yet?
Personally, i believe it's gonna get worse, before it gets better, and switched to "survival mode" now, and it doesn't mean a lot of "fast and cheap" miles! :roll:

[rank]

I haven't moved a load for hire in 6 weeks. Screw them.

[GMAN]

There is nothing any of us can do about the high fuel costs. The only thing you can do is to refuse to haul freight that doesn't make a profit for your business. Let the cheap freight sit on the dock. Refusing to haul cheap freight is the only thing that will keep the wheels rolling with the high fuel costs. Every time the cost of fuel goes up, you should raise the minimum rate for which you will haul a load. I have never understood why anyone would haul freight for less than it costs to operate. I won't waste my time or money on freight that won't pay a profit. A friend of mine calculated that his costs of operating is approximately $1.57/mile with current fuel prices. If that is the case, it would be foolish for him to haul a load which pays less. In order to show a fair profit, he should be getting around a minimum of $2.25-2.50/mile. There are still those trying to move freight for $1/mile. :roll:

[Orangetxguy]

Originally Posted by LightsChromeHorsepower

The thing about current oil prices is that they totally unsupported by any fundamentals. Stocks and reserves are growing and demand is, or should be, falling as the economy weakens. My personal opinion is that at least $30.00 of the current oil price is due to speculation. The root cause of which is that we have a global crisis of excess liquidity. A bunch of the money that was buying mortgage backed securities is now chasing oil futures. I predict that the price of oil will drop dramatically at some point, I'm just not sure when, or how much damage will be done to the economy before it does.

My favorite conspiriacy theory is that our current regime knows that it will be out of power next year, and is doing everything it can to destroy the nations economy, so the new regime will have a huge mess to deal with at home as well as in Iraq and Afghanistan.

I'd say if that's there goal, they are doing a great job.

Something to go along with your suppositions;
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080311/..._ge/oil_prices

Oil prices above $107 a barrel in Asia
By GILLIAN WONG, Associated Press Writer
Tue Mar 11, 2:13 AM ET
SINGAPORE - Oil prices were steady above $107 a barrel after rising to a record in the previous session as the U.S. dollar weakened further.

Speculation that rising prices for oil and other commodities will offset the falling dollar has driven oil's rally from $87 a barrel in January.
The dollar has fallen to three-year lows against the yen and the head of the European Central Bank expressed concern Monday about the "disorderly movements" of exchange rates.

"This surge to new records is driven by the speculative and large funds moving money into commodities. It's primarily a U.S. dollar and inflation play by financial investors," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore.

Light, sweet crude for April delivery dropped 21 cents to $107.69 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, by midday in Singapore.

Crude futures on Monday rose $2.75 to settle at a record $107.90 a barrel after setting an all-time trading high of $108.21 earlier in the session.

Many analysts believe speculative investing attracted by the weak dollar is the primary reason oil has risen so far so fast in recent months. Crude futures offer a hedge against a falling dollar, and oil futures bought and sold in dollars are more attractive to foreign investors when the dollar is falling.

There was little in oil's price uncertainty to convince analysts that the huge runup in oil prices has run its course. Analysts have said expectations are growing that the U.S. Federal Reserve would cut interest rates at its policy planners' next meeting March 18.

"Lower interest rates would mean increasing liquidity, which means a further weakening of the U.S. dollar and rising U.S. inflation," Shum said. "What that means for investors is that they therefore move their money into commodities as a hedge against inflation."

While the dollar fluctuated against the euro on Monday, many investors believe the greenback is likely to keep falling as the Fed continues to cut rates. Many analysts believe the rise in crude prices is not supported by the market's underlying fundamentals, noting that supplies are generally rising while demand is falling.

"Crude oil futures' relentless advance is a price bubble and certainly, a sharp pullback cannot be ruled out," Shum said.

"What may at some point trigger investors to exit oil is perhaps a build up of poor economic data out of the U.S.," he added. "That may be enough of a trigger to refocus attentions on the U.S. and slow oil demand growth there."

Other energy futures were mixed Tuesday. April heating oil futures rose 0.16 cent to $2.975 a gallon while April gasoline futures lost 0.5 cent to settle at $2.7099 a gallon.

April natural gas futures fell 2.3 cents to $10.001 per 1,000 cubic feet after settling at $10.024 on Monday, the first time a natural gas contract has closed above $10 since January 2006.

Natural gas was following oil higher, but also rising in anticipation of cooler temperatures across the U.S. Midwest and Northeast, analysts said.

In London, Brent crude futures were flat at $104.16 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its short-term energy outlook later Tuesday and weekly oil and product inventory data on Wednesday. These indicators, along with the Commerce Department's retail sales data release on Thursday, are traditionally used as cues for oil prices, though their impact has been muted lately.

A Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts found an average forecast of a 1.7 million barrel increase in oil inventories for the week ending March 7, a 100,000 barrel increase in gasoline stocks and a 2 million barrel draw in distillate inventories. Last week saw a surprise draw in oil inventories, after seven-straight weeks of gains.

Just something to wrap the mind around and contemplate. :cry: :cry:

[rank]

If the price rise is speculative (and I happen to agree that it is) the fund mangers will be running for the exits shortly. Classic pump and dump.

One of the certainties in life is that diesel prices rise in the winter. With that in mind I approached my fuel supplier (we have tanks on site) last Sept about buying ~15,000 gallons of fuel in November (it was ~$3.75 IIRC) and having them deliver all winter. Of course they wouldn't go for it.

So then I thought about buying more tanks and taking delivery of it. But then it would have been summer fuel and I would have to factor in the cost of the additives.

Then the only "option" left (no pun intended) was the futures market, but I have to buy the contracts in US dollars and I figured that any profits would have been eaten up by currency losses (i.e I make 20% profit on the oil futures but the US dollar drops 10% against the CDN dollar + I need to pay brokerage fees.

I thought about buying a local fuel distribution company, but he said the Flying J sells it for his cost.

Needless to say, I am still looking for an angle.

[RostyC]

Some of the talking heads were saying yesterday that the FED made a wise move, which could possibly start to strengthen the dollar and you might see fuel start to decrease, *possibly* plummet. Let's see how much they cut the rate on the 16th or 18th, I forget which day it is. If it's 75bp fuel might stay up if it less we'll see what happens to the dollar.

[LightsChromeHorsepower]

It's been too many years since I took an econ class and I can't quite logic this through. Please help me if you can-

How do domestic interest rates affect the strengh of the dollar?

f the Fed keeps cutting rates, won't that keep driving the dollar down? It seems to me that low interest U.S. rates require a cheap dollar to continue to attract the foreign investors that we need to keep supporting our huge national debt, trade deficit and current accounts deficit.

The bottom line, as I see it, is that we have been running on credit for far too long, and at some point the bills have to be paid. The longer Greenspan, Bernanke et al keep jiggering things around, the bigger the bills get, and the greater the impact on the average citizen will be when they finally come due.

[RostyC]

If your referring to my post LCH, perhaps I didn't word it properly because I agree with your post, rate cuts weakens the dollar.

I was referring to the deal the Fed offered the banks yesterday causing the market to launch upward, although it seems now to have lost enthusiasm. :?