Instead of posting opinion as fact, as others seem to be doing in this thread, I'll post some facts straight from the DOT.

http://www.dot.gov/affairs/cbtsip/factsheet.htm

some snippets

Pretty much blows that whole "article" out of the water. Case closed.

 

Allan5ohI want to run a few things past you. Just a few things, all the circus about striking and crazed drivers in dangerous beat-up equipment- set all that aside for a moment.

Canadians drive into America, Americans drive into Canada. Fair, even, if you don't take into account that most loads going into Canada go at most a couple hundred miles but Canadians drive down into the US hundreds or thousands of miles at time. Canadians compete against American drivers for the available work.

Now, where are we going to find American drivers to drive down into Mexico to have a little reciprocity there? Now, don't answer something about guts or manliness or whatever, stupidity and not bravery would provoke US drivers to go any considerable distance over the border.

I believe the Mexicans can do it safely. Large corporations with American money and terminals like military bases could send over well screened Mexican drivers in well-maintained late model equipment. Maquiladoras are not shanty towns, they are state of the art US factories staffed by Mexicans. Trucking could do the same.

Low paid Mexican drivers will be taking freight that until now has been hauled by American drivers. That reduces the overall pool of loads available to us and it certainly will have a downward influence on freight rates. If it's 300 drivers at this stage, it'll quickly expand to all the North/South freight allowed by law.

It is the outsourcing of American jobs. There are arguments for this just as there are in manufacturing. No one can deny it, it'll have a downward influence on freight rates here in the States. How much depends largely on how much it expands beyond the initial 300.

Anything I've written you disagree with?

 

Most (not all) major Canadian cities are within 200 miles north of the US border. I believe that Canadians can't come into the US and pickup a load and deliver it in the US, the load has to be going back to Canada same as with US drivers. Canadians are allowed to drive thru the US to Mexico where they hand the load off to a Mexican driver for final delivery.

 

Ok great, a debate that is based around facts.

Yes, and both can legally haul it. Since Canadian firms tend to have higher costs(equipment), I don't see a problem with this. Neither is subsidized, it's an open market. There's lots of American companies coming up to Toronto.

Another factor is deadheading, since we cannot interstate. If we go say to from Toronto to Texas, it's VERY hard to find a load going back to Canada. If an American company hauls that same load, they are much much more likely to have a lot less deadheading miles wherever they go with the load. I've deadheaded 500+ miles sometimes. It would be different if I could interstate.

Not all North-South freight goes immediately to the true consignee anyways. I used to haul LTL from Winnipeg to Minneapolis. From there it would be split up and 100% American labor would move it the rest of the way(all over America). So it's safe to say that the majority of LTL miles is handled by American firms. Also, I've had quite a few truckloads like this as well.

The same could easily be said about the Mexican drivers. Every truck will already be inspected every time it crosses the border. They might even wait hours/days to get this done.

I agree.

However, you have to realize an American truck can actually haul it cheaper because they can and will get back into the states much quicker/easier then their Mexican counterparts.

We shall see, I do not know, nor does anyone, how much it will affect rates. Do you honestly think all 300 Mexican drivers can handle all of the north-south freight? Mexican shippers will demand that the American trucks come down to their facilities.

It is not outsourcing jobs, it is eliminating protectionism that is actually illegal under NAFTA, which was signed in 92. The US is bound by NAFTA to open then border. Mexico is bound by NAFTA to open their border.

Not all of it, that's for sure.

One thing that is a strike against allowing the Mexican drivers in is if they interstate. Huge fines though, something like 50k and barred from entering the states for 8+ years. I've heard of trucks being confiscated. I'm talking about Canadian companies here, good riddance, they get what they deserve.

 

This is cool. Usually it's 'debating' when one or both sides is an impassioned, partisan bonehead. I think we can just get away with discussing this. We need to sharpen this up though, because there are some things that I believe are obvious enough to both of us to take them off the table.

First, let's take Canadian-US trade off the table. I have no desire to analyze that right now.

- true, Canadians are doing more work in the US than are Americans in Canada (Windsor to Laredo is a whole lot farther than Windsor to Toronto...)

- you have a good point about Canadians having to deadhead and wait on return loads. Personally, I sometimes deliver into Toronto and then drop down to Buffalo for my next load

- Canada has about 1/10 the population of the US and your wages are comparable. I'm not sure any of this matters too much

- there's a lot of comity between our countries and just that is a precious thing in the world nowadays

Let's leave off the Canada-US trade and talk only about US-Mexican trade.

This is the part I am talking about where we need to sharpen it up because we ought to agree pretty quicky. What does a red traffic light mean in Mexico? Ok, of course I'm now going to tell you- a red traffic light in Mexico means you ought to begin to start thinking about slowing down and stopping sometime in the near future :lol:

Two things, infrastructure and crime rate. I don't have to write an essay here. American drivers at most would cross the borders. All the miles are going to be done by Mexicans in the US.

Let's sharpen this one too because I don't think you believe this either. 42cpm, benefits and just that American 'I will when I'm damned good and ready' attitude versus...what? (a comparison between stewardesses on flights between the US and China. Korean stewardesses are young, pretty, bi-lingual and oh so polite. American stewardesses were older and they were willing to get you a drink if your English was good enough and you just sat there and were quiet and waited until she got serving everybody else, 'buddy!' The contrast was hilarious :wink: ) All the innovation will move in the direction of streamlining the freight and thus lowering the costs into and out of these 'trucking maquiladoras'. Just look at the new bridges and bordercrossing infrastructure down in Laredo already. The Mexican operators will be way cheaper, period. Let's not have a debate about this.

One last note about that 'American attitude'. It's not all negative. Sometimes it's just 'ain't no way I'm sitting around for twelve hours in a day cab!' In addition to pay, we have higher quality of life standards- no way would American drivers compete on the freight open to Mexican drivers.

Pt 1. I'm paranoid about writing a book here and then losing it.

 

Pt 2

We shall see what? I never said how much it'll affect freight rates, only that it will, pure and simple. Supply and demand, nothing more complicated than that. Again, I've already indicated this is not about 300 Mexican truckers. Don't belabor the numbers at launch.

Demand? Really? California has the world's sixth largest economy. I wonder which is higher, Texas or all of Mexico? I've already addressed the issues of Americans going into Mexico- infrastructure, traffic conditions and crime.

six to one, half dozen to another.

In this context we can speak in terms of international law. Since most on this board are American there is also the understanding that we can nullify treaties. These agreements are consensual, no one is going to haul us off to the World Court just yet for a treaty we decide to back out of. Agreed, we either comply with NAFTA or withdraw, hypocrisy is intolerable.

American based multi-nationals may be salivating, but this is a trucking board :wink: Most of us make more from our wages that our holdings of Proctor and Gamble stocks.

I've read a little of your stuff on this board. I like your contributions, I find them helpful. Sometimes I'll throw down on a message board. I don't see any reason why you and I can't just come to agreement on most all of it.

 

OK, that's what the subject is about anyways.

I'm going to have to agree with you on this one, but I do not think that the Mexican drivers can cover all the freight. If all of the drop lots tomorrow dropped off the face of the earth, Mexican shippers would be screaming. Why? Because all of the Mexican trucks cannot handle all of the northbound freight. If American trucks are disallowed for whatever reason to go to the shippers, then lots of freight will sit. It will work itself out, I do believe that.

Who knows, I've heard Mexican drivers get paid 14 CPM. I don't think they cost MORE, just in that one aspect of sitting at the border waiting to get their truck inspected every time they cross. It will be a major irritant. They still need equipment like everyone else, must pay the same American insurance, and they buy the same fuel.

And the wheels move forward, innovation rules. Trade will increase, good for both countries. I do not see anything wrong with the above. Getting rid of the drop lots will decrerase cost for everyone.

How much cheaper? Can they sustain being cheap? I don't see the point in having a debate, because neither of us have hard numbers other then the "average" Mexican wage. That is the factor, however, since other costs will be the same. Do you honestly think Mexican operators will get a "deal" from American insurance companies?

I fully agree, if Mexican drivers prescribed to said attitude, we wouldn't be discussing this.

[/i]

 

Yeah, it's all good. I think largely we're at the place of generic 'free trade' debates. I'll let Lou Dobbs carry the water on this one. :lol:

The immediate impact is more competition for American freight, downward price pressure on freight rates. Over the longer term, increasd trade, increased efficiencies in the world economy...who knows? Personally, I don't mind sacrificing a little something to see poor people have an opportunity to elevate themselves. Now, that's a charged statement and a can of worms...I'm not trying to take on the world.

It matters to me, I want countries that have been behind in mobilizing economically to get the training wheels of foreign investment. Not exploitation, but just to get 1,000 people in a plant all working together to make widgets without stealing, robbing or just waiting around for each other to do something- everyone playing from the same sheet music conforming to rules and laws. Listening to people talk, it seems a lot of Americans have no interest in this if it'll cost them anything.

Right now it looks best for multi-nationals competing against foreign competition. As far as freight rates go, I'm looking at the impact of free trade on the American steel and auto industries.

 

So I guess we agree that freight rates are the #1 issue? Pretty much everything else is a moot point.

 

I just want to parse everything out. If the subject is freight rates, focus on that. If the subject is the overall impact of expanded free trade, all its good and bad points, that's just a much broader topic. I can go there on the latter, it does interest me. On the former, I see poor Mexicans lining up to start pulling a lot of the freight I'm now taking into and out of Laredo.