[Mr. Ford95]

I really am curious about this new mass of "debris" they picked up on satellite. Said one of the hits looked like pallets, which were known to be on board the plane.

Hobo, your doing the social media thing, if you have twitter, send them an idea on where to look. It's easier than calling them up. Maybe an email? Let's say your onto something, you would think it have been seen with the amount of aircraft flying over that vicinity going in and out of Malaysia on passenger airlines or even search and rescue heading out to look in the other area's.

[golfhobo]

Mr. Ford95 said:

I really am curious about this new mass of "debris" they picked up on satellite. Said one of the hits looked like pallets, which were known to be on board the plane.

Well... too bad. lol. They've forgotten that (and the other objects that could have been part of a plane,) and moved to another location. It appears to still be on the "arc," but further north due to deciding that the plane used up more fuel during the time it was making the "turn and dive." So.... does that mean that the less amount of fuel they "estimate" it had... the further north on the arc they are? Okay... what if the pilot dumped some fuel before blacking out? If he was trying to get back to KL for an emergency landing (he KNEW his front landing gear had melted and started a fire?)... he would have dropped it in the Strait of Malaca and it would just be another oil slick. (which they haven't searched for THERE.) This is standard procedure and even caused the crash of that plane off Nova Scotia (was it?)

I'm still having analysis problems with that "arc." But, I can't explain what is bugging me. At any rate... IF they say the last ping could be at that northern point, and that is on line with my "theorized last vector," and he no longer had enough fuel to fly as far away as they think.... then, "I" would start looking at that northernmost point! I already said I don't believe it could be north of Jakarta without being seen by now by local maritime traffic. But.... there is a lot of ocean between that section of Indonesia and the northwest coast of Australia.

Let's say your onto something, you would think it have been seen with the amount of aircraft flying over that vicinity going in and out of Malaysia on passenger airlines...

Absolutely right, if you consider the waters just north of Jakarta. I've abandoned that possibility. But.... if you move south of that Indonesian island (Java is it?) and head towards Australia... there is a very large area of open ocean, and it fits into the "invisible wedge" between flights from/to Perth or any other major city in Australia (the rest of them being further to the east,) and any point in Malaysia or other destinations in that area (even Jakarta.) I.E: not on any heavily traveled air route. Also.... any aircraft flying those routes would be too high to see any debris.

Oh... but, wouldn't the debris have washed up on some beach in Australia or Indonesia by now? Nope. Far enough out, it would have been carried by surface currents more or less perpendicular to either coast. But, wait.... aren't the currents in the Indian Ocean flowing counterclockwise in a "gyre" that wouldn't allow the debris to be as far south as we MAY be seeing it? Nope! I did some serious googling, and in that area, the current flows WEST until it hits the gyre.... and a MAJOR current (the Leeuin Current?) then flows SOUTH between Perth and the gyre itself. It almost exactly creates a path that would have taken the debris to the "current" search area in this amount of time.

or even search and rescue heading out to look in the other area's.

Ain't no SARS assets left in that area to search where I'm "predicting." They've all been sent to the FIRST debris site! And... no REASON for them to look into that area without considering my theory.

Hobo, your doing the social media thing, if you have twitter, send them an idea on where to look. It's easier than calling them up. Maybe an email?

I opened a twitter account a few years ago, but don't even remember how to access it (or use it!) But, I agree that seems to be the way things are going for "instant feedback" with media journalists. I may try it. Email? Maybe. I may check out the websites for the NTSB, AAIB, the Australian one, etc. and SEE if there is any kind of forum or discussion going on, or a "contact us" email addy.

[golfhobo]

Originally Posted by Useless

Well, I'm now convinced that of all the things we've been told about the disappearance of Malaysian Airlines Flight 370, there's one thing we haven't been told..........
.......... The truth.

Maybe, maybe not. What "I" am most upset about is the lack of FACTS or data. You can't get a straight (or consistent) story from the media cuz they keep changing their minds... AND misreporting certain data and facts! HALF of them are still confused about the difference between an ELB and the black boxes. MOST of them are either asking the wrong questions of their "experts," or are drawing the wrong conclusion because they don't understand the first thing about ANY of this!

But, it IS possible that someone (Malaysia or Indonesia or others,) isn't owning up to what they "know," cuz they don't want to admit they were asleep at the wheel! That they either SAW and didn't report an unidentified aircraft... or, that their enemies can fly a whole Squadron into their territory without being SEEN! lol.

[golfhobo]

If I understand it right, Inmarsat is saying that the last ping was somewhere on that southern arc. (Let's forget about the northern arc for now, as I feel it has been discounted with good reason.)

That's a LOT of miles between the northern and southern point on that arc! What kind of "fuel consumption" would account for that much variance? The media is CONSISTENTLY calling this a flight "corridor," whereas Inmarsat actually showed potential corridors as being far to the west (with some variation to the east.... and UP the corridor. This makes NO sense!

The ONLY way the plane could have been following that "corridor," is if it was making a gentle right turn! AND.... all of the previous 3 or 5 "pings" would have had to be at that same distance from the satellite... and therefore ALONG that corridor.

IF Inmarsat is saying that the last location was somewhere along that ARC, then someone is figuring it COULD have run out of fuel at the northernmost point on the arc.... or crashed there at the end of fuel expectations (at 8:20 or so.)

My problem is.... if radar tracked it near the waypoint at the north end of the Malacca Strait, it had already been airborne for about 1.5 hours (and they SAY it used about 30-40% of its fuel by then. HOW could it have flown to the southern point on the arc in only 5 more hours? ONLY by going right over Indonesia "proper." But, that's not even the suggested "path" that Inmarsat has proposed!

I WISH I had an aeronautical map of this area, complete with a "legend" showing miles. Take a STRING that represents 8 hours of flight time based on fuel capacity... and somehow "adjusted" for speed and altitude (fuel consumption.) "PIN" it to the KL airport as a starting point, then stretch it around "pins" at the last point of voice contact and the waypoint at the northern end of Malacca Strait. NOW.... Straighten in out and pencil in the "arc" of how far it could have gone and see where it crosses the ACARS "ping" arc for the last known location (based on the pings.)

I suspect it will be about halfway between the northern and southern "points" on the arc.... but, it would have to cross Indonesia "proper" to get there! Now.... consider that he dropped fuel for an emergency landing before becoming incapacitated. That would shorten the string and bring the end of the "truncated" string much closer to the NORTHERN point on the arc... and right on line with my 'theorized vector' down the Strait of Malacca towards his home airport!

I guess my point is.... If you took that string, and put the END of it at the northern point on the arc.... you would have some "slack" in the string that would have to be taken up either by a westward flight path... AND another course correction towards that point... OR... a "fuel drop" which is standard procedure for a pilot returning to his departure airport and expecting to have to "belly land" the plane. [fire in the area of the nose gear.]

IF he was returning down the Strait of Malacca... at 12,000 feet for pressurization reasons... he would also be using MORE fuel to stay aloft.... even at a slower speed! [and MAY be below effective radar from Indonesia AND Malaysia!] If fire or electrical "short" took out his comms, he couldn't tell anyone he was "on approach."

My point continues to be.... using Occam's Razor.... the most likely scenario would have the pilot trying to return to base, fighting a fire, no comms, and incapacitated before he could attempt a landing. IF he had dropped fuel, he would probably splash down ON my "theorized vector" and just south of Java Island. OR... he made it to land in the deserts of Northwest Australia. (Flight of the Phoenix... anybody?)

IF in the water south of Java.... the currents would have the debris right about where it has been "reported" by now. IF on land (in Australia) .... no one is out there in the desert looking for them!

The ONLY scenarios... for me.... that put it at the southern point on the arc... require too much "speculation" and conspiracy theory, and the "data" (with the recent adjustment of the partial ping,) COULD put it south of Java Island or just inside Northwest Australia where there are no cities, and nothing but desert.

I NEED to know where the last 5 pings were! Were they ON that curved corridor? I doubt it! If not... then it wasn't flying along the corridor... as the media says! It "intercepted" that arc at the point of the last ping (and actually a bit farther to the east with the partial ping.) Which means either that it went westward to USE fuel and time... OR... it flew straight down the Strait of Malacca and ran out of fuel (and time) at the northernmost point of the "arc." Look THERE!

[Mr. Ford95]

It's already understood that Malaysia military was asleep at the wheel over this. If this had happened in Russia......oh wait it did......some heads rolled over it AND the plane was found rather quickly after it had crash landed. Flight 902 was initially thought to be a Russian plane coming back in and allowed to penetrate too far in in their eyes. This incident lead directly to the KAL 007 shoot down 5 years later.

It's an interesting theory with what info you have at your disposal Hobo. I think I heard something last week about the use of Occam in the search. I have this feeling that it's going to turn out like the Earhart deal, we'll never know.

[golfhobo]

I found a good site with good analysis. It also posted the 5:11 pings and subsequent ones. I couldn't figure out the earlier ones for awhile. Then... I think I did. IMHO, there is NO way that plane reached the 5:11 point on the enclosed map in only 3 hours from the Andaman Islands. Check out this site, and the map that shows the ping arcs. Then read my latest theory as I posted it on that site.

The Aviationist » All you need to know about MH370: facts, timelines, systems, findings, theories

My post:

Great article(s) - great site. I have a theory based on Occam's Razor that no one seems to be considering. When the available "knowns" fit several scenarios, the simplest is usually the correct one. Forgetting for a moment that we don't know what happened, the most reasonable theory is a fire or electronics "short" on the plane that caused the pilot(s) to want to return to base (KL.) Perhaps, hypoxia caused the PNF to switch off the transponder instead of switching freqs to Ho Chi Minh? Anyways... they made a left turn. NOT a 180 because that would have them returning to KL against outbound aircraft without the ability to squawk their position. Too dangerous. Not to mention, IF they had a decompression, they would have to fly low and might not clear the 8,000 foot mountain range just east of KL. So... the pilot wanted to go to a waypoint (possibly pre-programmed for just this eventuality) at the north end of the Strait of Malacca and then turn south towards the "sea level" airport at KL.

I had a hard time believing the "suspected" turn north towards the Andaman Islands, but... it seems to be the only possibility that matches up with the satellite pings. So, let's say Thai radar was correct and he headed north for some reason. The 1:11 ping would have been very near his last "voice" contact. The 2:11 ping would have been just east of the first waypoint west of Malaysia. The 3:11 ping would have been a ways before reaching the Andaman Islands. Assume, he flew about 30 minutes PAST the islands before turning around at about the point of the 4:11 ping.

Now, heading back down the Strait of Malacca, he would intersect the 5:11 ping on a point on the arc that doesn't show on these "maps." (not sure why... maybe the VHF scenario?) Then the 6:11 ping would be somewhere before reaching KL while flying down the strait. The 7:11 ping falls just south of KL (I think) and the final ping at the northernmost point of the southern arc.... Just north of Jakarta.

With the additional "half ping" OR the fact that the aircraft could glide for some distance before crashing, I believe he cleared the island of Java and crashed in the deeper waters between Java and northern Australia. Right on line with the northernmost point of the arc as vectored from the Andaman Islands.

I see no way it could have made it to the point the map is showing for the 5:11 ping that far south and west over the Indian Ocean!

IF he did indeed decend to 12,000 ft, he might have been below both Malaysian and Indonesian primary military radar (and neither want to admit it.) He may have even dumped fuel for a belly landing. He most likely would have reduced speed (which might even eliminate the need for the 30 minutes past Andaman.)

NONE of the debris fields where they are looking has proved to be an aircraft. But, even if it DID.... there is a primary current (the Leeuwin current?) that flows south between the Indian Ocean "gyre" and the coast of Australia which, by now, would have carried the debris to the point where they are searching.

In summary: IF the northernmost point on the 8:11 arc is near Java, and is on line with a return to base track down the Strait of Malacca, why not search THERE? The water is much shallower, and calmer. They DID feel it necessary to search the waters of the Strait... but NORTH of KL only! They stopped too short. Search the area south (and possibly north?) of Java island.

Occam's Razor says the pilot(s) were trying to return to KL through the Strait of Malacca, and became incapacitated before they could land. The autopilot kept the plane going southeast until it ran out of fuel near Java.

[GMAN]

It seems to me that if the plane had crashed that they would have found at least some wreckage.

[Mr. Ford95]

You would think GMAN, but we have no solid idea just where it went. Now there is a push to make all planes where they can never go dark like this. In one of the previous crashes similar to this, a pilot pulled a small fuse and made the plane partially go dark. The Indian Ocean isn't exactly a small pond or lake, everything on this plane except for the "pings" stopped working while the plane flew on an unknown course for a few more hours. As the Aussie's stated, we aren't looking for a needle in a haystack, we're still looking for the haystack. Once they start finding actual, verified plane debris they will then start tracking it/tracing it to hopefully find the source.

Hobo, wouldn't some debris wash up somewhere where someone would say hey what is this doing here and call police? I mean, if it went down somewhere around where your saying, shouldn't something have washed up? Or am I too far North on your scenario?

[golfhobo]

Originally Posted by Mr. Ford95

Hobo, wouldn't some debris wash up somewhere where someone would say hey what is this doing here and call police? I mean, if it went down somewhere around where your saying, shouldn't something have washed up? Or am I too far North on your scenario?

You would think... by now... but, IF it went in between Java and Northwestern Australia.... the currents would continue to carry the debris southwest around the corner of Australia and down near Perth. Even IF something washed up on the coast near where I described, I'm not sure there is so much as a fishing village up there. Well, actually.... Port Hedlund is close. See this map:

Australia Map

Of course, IF it made land.... there is nothing out there but the Great Sandy and Gibson deserts.

Update: Not so sure of my theory anymore. I heard that the Indonesian navy WAS conducting search in the waters south of Java (I think.) But.... it's still a big triangle. Also.... hard to believe Aussie Jindalee radar system didn't see it there.

Update 2: Chinese possibly have found a pinger signal near my "other" suspected site - halfway up that arc between Java and their first search area. I hope they're right!

Either way, I hope I'm right that the pilot(s) were trying to return to KL.... and not trying to disappear in the Indian Ocean.

Have you seen the recently released full transcript of ATC comms? Media keeps saying "nothing abnormal" but.... I see two instances of possible "confusion" in the pilot's responses... and then there's that OTHER pilot that contacted them and only got a garbled, mumbling response. Could have been a very slow decompression/oxygen loss.

[Mr. Ford95]

Yes I did see the transcripts which seem to indicate the pilots were signing off from Malaysia ATC in process of changeover to Vietnam ATC. If true that another pilot tried contacting them and got that response, it could definitely signal they had oxygen masks on. Did they believe they had oxygen when they really didn't? Saw a black box tracker is now on site to search where the Chinese got a hit.