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Old 06-15-2008, 04:08 PM
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Default Politics, Speculation and Prices at the Pump

I listened to Byron Dorgan on FOx News Sunday say that we have to go after the speculators in order to deal with the rising price of oil when he was asked about Congress allowing more exploration for oil.

I read an article quoting George Soros saying that the speculation in oil is a bubble and it immediately occurred to me that the way to burst that bubble is to produce more crude oil.

Yet, conservation, taxation and “alternative energy sources” are the mantra of the Democrats in Congress. This policy of theirs is perfectly tailored, I believe, to benefit the very speculators being cited by Dorgan as the root cause of our misery.

Question – how valid is the proposition that Obama, Democrat politicians and affluent Democrat supporters of Obama have investments in the oil futures hedge funds which are probably the real “speculator” culprits here?

That is, do Democrats seek to personally benefit financially through personal investments from keeping oil off the market by their insisting on conservation, taxation and alternative energy sources instead of allowing more domestic oil production?
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Old 06-15-2008, 04:36 PM
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Default Re: Politics, Speculation and Prices at the Pump

Quote:
Originally Posted by WAVP375
I listened to Byron Dorgan on FOx News Sunday say that we have to go after the speculators in order to deal with the rising price of oil when he was asked about Congress allowing more exploration for oil.

I read an article quoting George Soros saying that the speculation in oil is a bubble and it immediately occurred to me that the way to burst that bubble is to produce more crude oil.

Yet, conservation, taxation and “alternative energy sources” are the mantra of the Democrats in Congress. This policy of theirs is perfectly tailored, I believe, to benefit the very speculators being cited by Dorgan as the root cause of our misery.

Question – how valid is the proposition that Obama, Democrat politicians and affluent Democrat supporters of Obama have investments in the oil futures hedge funds which are probably the real “speculator” culprits here?

That is, do Democrats seek to personally benefit financially through personal investments from keeping oil off the market by their insisting on conservation, taxation and alternative energy sources instead of allowing more domestic oil production?
In the long run, that will only ADD to the problem. The way to really burst their bubble is to REPLACE oil and make it worthless. The technology to produce Hydrogen cheaply has been with us for decades. It's as old as AC POWER itself. (Come on, TF. Get in on this. You DO NOT have to burn hydrocarbons to produce hydrogen) Replace oil and it no longer has any value.
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Old 06-15-2008, 04:53 PM
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Considering that the current administrations fiscal policies suck, which has led to the devaluation of the US Dollar....much of the reason that oil is expensive here is because the Dollar isn't worth much anymore. An article in the Atlanta paper made a point of this....and were the Dollar on par with the Euro...a barrel of oil would be about $77.00....NOT $130.00.

Heres a comparison of the US Dollar to the Canadian Dollar:

Canadian Dollars to 1 USD (invert,data)
120 days latest (Jun 13)
1.0282 lowest (Feb 28)
0.9717 highest (Jan 18)
1.0294

I used to be that the exchange rate for the US $ in Canada was in our (US) favor....about $1.20 Canadian to one US $....that is now reversed....

Now the Euro:

American Dollars to 1 EUR (invert,data)
120 days latest (Jun 13)
1.5368 lowest (Feb 7)
1.4495 highest (Apr 22)
1.601

When the Euro first came out.....it was roughly trading at about the same as the US $....right now it takes over $1.50 US to buy one Euro.....

These guys have a take on it....not that I agree with them politically:

http://www.fdrs.org/american_currency_value.html

And another take on it:

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/03/...rmarkets03.php

Its a frightening situation....because its not just about "fuel".....
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Old 06-15-2008, 05:30 PM
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You all make good points. But Democrats blaming the situation on speculators is down right stupid. Commodities speculators play a very important role in diverting risk in the market. It is a simple fact that due to an increased demand in China, India and other developing countries, and a finite supply of crude, the future trends look to rising prices due to those simple supply v. demand factors. That coupled with a pathetically weak dollar add up to the situation we see ourselves in today.

The answer is simple. We need to drill now while it is profitable to do so, thus increasing supply aand lowering prices, while at the same time continue to develop the technologies that will get us off of oil.

Sign the petition at www.americansolutions.com to let Congress know that we want to drill in our borders and off the shore to alleviate the pain we are feeling at the pump.
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Old 06-15-2008, 07:41 PM
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I am ALL for drilling and refining more U.S. oil!! But, for the most part, any realized relief will be years down the line.

I am ALL for shoring up the U.S. Dollar, but that will take CHANGE in our Administration and therefore our economy.

Speculators are not the WHOLE problem, but they are a big part of it. Yes, the increased demand from China and others is somewhat FUELING the "speculation" that supply will tighten, thus increasing the profitability of "futures."

But, markets (and speculators) are a nervous bunch. ANYTHING that we can do to lessen the PERCEPTION of future shortages will help! This means even the RUMOR of drilling more (not EFFECTIVE until Congress passes some bill making it a real possibility), or conservation (increased MPG standards in Detroit,) and REAL effort toward alternative fuel sources (like COAL into oil that the military is investing in) will REDUCE the futures speculation.

Also, ending the constant WARS in the Middle East will help.... tremendously! And.... if you really want to put a "stop" on short term speculation..... release some of the "reserves" (or quit stockpiling.)

The situation is dire ENOUGH without the greedy Wall Street speculators/traders making it worse! Take away their "projections" and perhaps they'll move on!

Democratic policies do NOT result in keeping GASOLINE OFF the market! Conservation and alternative sources would INCREASE the supply! Taxation is a different animal, but the point is to tax windfall profits while REDUCING "tax incentives" to companies who don't NEED them.

The government has a VALID reason for taxing fuel. That is.... to build more roads and improve our transportation infrastructure. But, it is "double jeapordy" and to some extent "taxation without representation" to then ALSO give away our tax money to oil companies who REFUSE to increase their refining capacity!

I'm not saying that Democrats are not part of the problem. But, only a FOOL cannot see that the current REPUBLICAN administration is in BED with the oil companies.... and perhaps even OPEC.... to increase profits for themselves at OUR expense! The current "lip service" Bush has given to both conservation AND alternatives research is JUST THAT! :roll:

[Now, I have heard that the Dems are being "blamed" for stonewalling more drilling off the coast (and in Anwar) and I AGREE that this needs to STOP! But, there really IS no "shortage" of OIL on the market! And my "conservative" side says..... let's lift ALL restrictions on drilling American oil IMMEDIATELY! I doubt that much more WILL be drilled, but the mere "opportunity" to do so will scare OPEC into a more rational "profit structure." :roll: ]

If Bush doesn't help the Saudis make MORE money off their oil, how can he expect to sell them MORE "arms?!" And if we don't sell them more arms, how can he keep the M/I/C in business?? Our military has become so "efficient" that we don't "expend" enough planes, tanks, bombs and bullets to do so by ourselves! NOT that he isn't TRYING..... by starting wars everywhere he CAN..... but, it's not enough! We must ALSO help our friends (and enemies) be able to afford to BUY more of our products of death and destruction!

Someone once made the "litmus test" a simple question.... Are you better off today than X number of years ago? Well?? What was the price of oil, and therefore gasoline / diesel BEFORE Bush took office?

Speculators..... wretched as they are..... are ONLY doing what comes naturally! The "ROOT" of the problem is the policies that have created the speculation! And CHINA, (although a real factor) is NOT the only problem!

Now.... if ANYONE can find a way to blame THAT on the Democrats.... well...... maybe I'll vote for McCain! But, don't "speculate" on it! :roll:

And (although I am NOT against drilling there,) if I hear the word ANWAR in your response..... I'm gonna PUKE all over your keyboard!! :lol:
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Old 06-15-2008, 07:43 PM
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...this thread has echoes of an emerging conspiracy :shock:
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Old 06-15-2008, 07:46 PM
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Holy shit !!

http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...67011147&hl=en
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Old 06-15-2008, 08:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Colts Fan
You all make good points. But Democrats blaming the situation on speculators is down right stupid. Commodities speculators play a very important role in diverting risk in the market. It is a simple fact that due to an increased demand in China, India and other developing countries, and a finite supply of crude, the future trends look to rising prices due to those simple supply v. demand factors. That coupled with a pathetically weak dollar add up to the situation we see ourselves in today.

The answer is simple. We need to drill now while it is profitable to do so, thus increasing supply aand lowering prices, while at the same time continue to develop the technologies that will get us off of oil.

Sign the petition at www.americansolutions.com to let Congress know that we want to drill in our borders and off the shore to alleviate the pain we are feeling at the pump.

Ummmmmmmmmmm....Ok.


Seriuosly ...How do you propose the drilling begin? Where do you propose the drilling begin?

Right now the biggest road block to new drilling, on land, is not lack of permits. It is people and equipment. The drilling companies themselves(don't mistake "Oil" companies for "Drilling" companies) , are finding that the equipment that has been "stacked" since the mid-80's...didn't hold up so well to the elements..so..they have to build new equipment...which requires massive amonts of steel...which is expensive. It also requires those companies..that no longer manufacture the needed auxilary equipment...be replaced or re-tooled..to build that equipment. Add into the, the simple fact that even thugh the "OIL" companies need the drilling compnaies to drill the wells...those same "Oil" companies are not going to sell the drilling companies fuel and lube products on the cheap.
As far as people...it is hard for drilling and service companies to find people whom are trainable, whom can pass a drug test, and whom are willing to work long hours. In the 70's and 80's..that was not a problem. There were plenty of people with good work ethics willing to go to work in the oilfields...not so today...all the people now want everything given to them.

Now...for "Offshore" drilling. The biggest roadblock here is again...lack of serviceable equipment. To drill in deep water..it takes a much larger platform, than what is used in shallow water. The majority of replacement platforms will ot be deliveried to the "Gulf Coast" system until later next year. The majority of those platforms currently under construction are already under contract to drill in "International" locations.

Here in this area(SE Texas)...all the shallow water platforms that were being used to repair the wells in shallow water, that were damaged by hurricanes in 2005, are one by one being stacked out, to eventually be turned into replacement production platforms...or scrapped..because they are useless in deep water, and there is no need for them over-seas.

Here is a decent article with plenty of useful information, about what it costs, both to establish a drilling program offshore..plus the cost's of short-sightedness, during storm evacuations; http://www.redorbit.com/news/science...orm/index.html
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Old 06-15-2008, 08:36 PM
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There isn't any real competition to oil. If there was a good inexpensive alternative prices would plummet overnight. If you want to look at failed energy policies you need to go back to Jimmy Carter. Under his administration prices began climbing at an astronomical rate. Prior to his administration you could buy gas for less than $.40/gallon almost anywhere in the U.S. In fact, at many self service stations you could buy regular at about $0.19-0.27/gallon. Diesel was less. Under Carter, interest rates were over 22% and inflation was out of control. His foreign policy gave the impression that the U.S. was weak. Remember the Iranian hostages. Our citizens were held hostage by an Iranian Islamic radicals who over threw their government and held our people almost a year. They were released when Reagan took office. He would have taken a different tact.

We do have alternatives to oil and have had experimental means to get much higher fuel economy without decreasing performance for many decades. The problem is that the will isn't there to proceed. This is a problem which will not be solved over night. However, prices would plummet if we either started drilling more oil in this country, started building more refineries or moved forward with a good alternative to oil.
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Old 06-15-2008, 09:03 PM
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The only answer is to come up with a viable alternative. Oil is not a renewable resource and will eventually run out. Therefore supply and demand is exactly what is causing the rise and it is only going to get worse. Drilling in Alaska and other places would help but realistically by the time those oil fields could be productive we better already be on our way to an alternative. They should have opened those up years ago and at the same time began serious efforts to find a viable alternative. The current situation isn't a surprise to those who should know, they just failed to act early enough. Google 'peak oil' and read a little.
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