Quote:
Originally Posted by littleman2
I hate to tell you this but why don't you google my company. And tell me I am wrong I work in the industry The proven reserves are in the trillions of barrels. It takes more energy to extract it yes but we have enough to kiss off the middle east. for the next 200 years.
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I'm sure your company knows more than the US government and British Petroleum... BP has pretty good knowledge of the petroleum industry and according to them there are about 600 billion barrels worldwide of recoverable Kerogen in oil shale. This is about 50-60 percent as much as the "traditional" proven oil reserves, not multiples of it.
The US consumes approximately 21 million barrels per day, or roughly 7.5 billion per year. The rest of the world consumes approximately 3x as much, for a total of approximately 30 billion barrels per year. Assuming demand were to never increase, this would mean roughly 20 years supply of Kerogen -- and only about half of that is easily accessable. Given the very likely rise in demand of at least 1 billion bpd every two years, 20 years from now worldwide consumption will likely be somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 billion bpd. Proven oil reserves stand at about 1 trillion barrels, so roughly 25 year's supply at that rate.
So, again, this problem cannot be outdrilled or outmined. As time wears on the oil deposits we currently have drilled become exhausted and the ones that replace them tend to be smaller and harder to get at. Oil output in the US has been falling since the 1970s and will never reach those levels again. Ergo, a larger percentage of our oil will have to be imported since our economy requires more oil each year.
Even if we were to do in the midwest with our oil shale what the Canadians are doing in Alberta (gigantic open pit mining, immense ecological damage, etc.) our thirst for oil will overwhelm production in a matter of years. By way of comparison, the Canadians are projected to eventually produce 3 million barrels per day in Alberta, which is roughly 5.5 years growth in our oil consumption.