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Could this be why some succeed in trucking?
What smart truckers tell us about the road to success
By Tim Harford Published: May 2 2009 01:19 | Last updated: May 2 2009 01:19 Aldo Rustichini is a genial Italian economist with a head of hair that seems to have been modelled on Albert Einstein’s. A professor at Cambridge and the University of Minnesota, he quickly transformed my interview with him into a full-blown undergraduate-style tutorial, occasionally asking me questions to check my understanding. Yet this likeable economist has been carrying out work with potentially explosive implications – including the possibility that economic success is genetically transmitted. Rustichini’s latest research – with Stephen Burks, Jeffrey Carpenter and Lorenz Goette – studies the behaviour of about 1,000 trainee truck drivers in the US. The researchers gave the truckers IQ tests and asked them to participate in a number of small experiments. In one experiment, the truckers were asked to choose between gambles and certain payoffs. In another, the choice was between a sum of money now and more money later. A more complex experiment required the truckers to play an anonymous “trust” game. The first player was given $5 and offered the choice of sending it to the second player; the second player had his own $5 and was asked how much he would send to the first player were he to receive $5 from him, and how much if he didn’t. The researchers promised to double the money sent in either direction – meaning that if the players managed to co-operate then each could get $10. An intriguing pattern emerged. The truckers who scored highest on the IQ test were also more patient and more willing to take calculated risks, rejecting unfair gambles and accepting favourable ones. Their choices revealed a more consistent attitude to risk and a more consistent level of patience, too. The high-IQ truckers were also better at predicting what other players would do in the trust game, and secured more money overall. When they played second, they were more discriminating, rewarding co-operation and punishing those who would not trust them. High IQ goes hand in hand with patience, calculated risk-taking and interpersonal judgment, it seems – and this is true after statistically adjusting for age and race. Nor is any of this limited to the laboratory. Many trainee truckers drop out before completing their first year of work, even though this means they must repay the trucking company their training costs, which run into thousands of dollars. This indicates a lack of patience, an inability to appreciate how much money is at stake or a serious miscalculation in the initial plan to be a truck driver. Whatever the reason, dropping out is correlated with Rustichini’s experimental tests of low IQ, impatience and bad judgment of risk or of other people. Rustichini puts this in a far more striking way: that the ingredients for prospering in a capitalist society all seem to be present together, or absent together. This is not entirely surprising but neither is it obvious. And therein lies the dangerous hypothesis: if all these attributes go hand in hand, it is much more plausible to suggest that economic success is passed on from generation to generation. “Such a process could be cultural, genetic or both,” comment the researchers in a footnote, “but the genetic version is the most controversial.” Quite so. But even the cultural transmission of economic success is a provocative notion, and a painful one to most economists, who are predisposed to hope that good policies alone may promote economic growth. Rustichini is not perturbed. For all his amiability, he is quite content to contemplate unwelcome possibilities. |
This indicates a lack of patience, an inability to appreciate how much money is at stake or a serious miscalculation in the initial plan to be a truck driver. Whatever the reason, dropping out is correlated with Rustichini’s experimental tests of low IQ, impatience and bad judgment of risk or of other people. Unfortunately, that's the way it's set up. You almost have to go with a large carrier to enter the industry. So, usually, (not all the time) it's the people with no other (perceived) alternatives that stick with it, mostly due to lack of self motivation to better themselves and unfortunately those people are lot of what you see running around out here. I hope I didn't take this thread off topic, but the paragraph I quoted above just struck a cord I guess. |
Originally Posted by RostyC
(Post 459792)
Actually, I'd say they are the smart ones. I would also say it's a good indicator of how screwed up, or flawed maybe is a better word, the industry is as a whole. Money doesn't equal happiness so I wouldn't care either (and didn't back in 1993) if I just spent thousands on school, when you realize what you're going to be treated like by these big carriers, it ain't worth it.
Unfortunately, that's the way it's set up. You almost have to go with a large carrier to enter the industry. So, usually, (not all the time) it's the people with no other (perceived) alternatives that stick with it, mostly due to lack of self motivation to better themselves and unfortunately those people are lot of what you see running around out here. I hope I didn't take this thread off topic, but the paragraph I quoted above just struck a cord I guess. Large companies in our industry will always treat trainees poorly and underpay them because not only do they cost the company a ton of money through increased insurance premiums and accident claims, they also are literally a dime a dozen. Have you ever seen the Star Trek episode “The Trouble With Tribbles”? Trainees aren’t as cute as Tribbles, but they are just as plentiful and many will never become competent drivers and should have never obtained a CDL in the first place. The biggest problem is with unscrupulous CDL schools that mislead prospects about what this industry is like and what they can expect for the first few years as new drivers. People come from all backgrounds to join this industry because they are sold on “The Freedom of the Road” and told what glorious piles of cash they are guaranteed to make as long as they get their license. They only find out after blowing $5k or more on CDL school that this career comes with plenty of BS and that as a company driver, there is little freedom on the road. |
Along with the schools companies also add to the problem by taking these students with their newly gotten licenses and telling them "our company will pay you this amount and get you home this often, please sign on with us". Then they leave them out on the road for extended periods of time or sitting around with no freight. If you dont have freight dont hire drivers. Or flat out lying to them about how much freedom and money they will have if they just sign on the dotted line of this lease purchase. I understand that people need to do their research because it is ultimately their decision to work somewhere but how about recruiters start telling the truth.
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Originally Posted by Musicman
You’re assertion that the trucking industry is unique in the way trainees are treated falls completely flat for those of us who have had a variety of jobs in the past.
Maybe it's me, but I never let anyone treat me with disrespect or try to screw me, no matter the circumstances, no matter the industry. |
Originally Posted by LOAD IT
(Post 459730)
What smart truckers tell us about the road to success
By Tim Harford Published: May 2 2009 01:19 | Last updated: May 2 2009 01:19 Aldo Rustichini is a genial Italian economist with a head of hair that seems to have been modelled on Albert Einstein’s. A professor at Cambridge and the University of Minnesota, he quickly transformed my interview with him into a full-blown undergraduate-style tutorial, occasionally asking me questions to check my understanding. Yet this likeable economist has been carrying out work with potentially explosive implications – including the possibility that economic success is genetically transmitted. Rustichini’s latest research – with Stephen Burks, Jeffrey Carpenter and Lorenz Goette – studies the behaviour of about 1,000 trainee truck drivers in the US. The researchers gave the truckers IQ tests and asked them to participate in a number of small experiments. In one experiment, the truckers were asked to choose between gambles and certain payoffs. In another, the choice was between a sum of money now and more money later. A more complex experiment required the truckers to play an anonymous “trust” game. The first player was given $5 and offered the choice of sending it to the second player; the second player had his own $5 and was asked how much he would send to the first player were he to receive $5 from him, and how much if he didn’t. The researchers promised to double the money sent in either direction – meaning that if the players managed to co-operate then each could get $10. An intriguing pattern emerged. The truckers who scored highest on the IQ test were also more patient and more willing to take calculated risks, rejecting unfair gambles and accepting favourable ones. Their choices revealed a more consistent attitude to risk and a more consistent level of patience, too. The high-IQ truckers were also better at predicting what other players would do in the trust game, and secured more money overall. When they played second, they were more discriminating, rewarding co-operation and punishing those who would not trust them. High IQ goes hand in hand with patience, calculated risk-taking and interpersonal judgment, it seems – and this is true after statistically adjusting for age and race. Nor is any of this limited to the laboratory. Many trainee truckers drop out before completing their first year of work, even though this means they must repay the trucking company their training costs, which run into thousands of dollars. This indicates a lack of patience, an inability to appreciate how much money is at stake or a serious miscalculation in the initial plan to be a truck driver. Whatever the reason, dropping out is correlated with Rustichini’s experimental tests of low IQ, impatience and bad judgment of risk or of other people. Rustichini puts this in a far more striking way: that the ingredients for prospering in a capitalist society all seem to be present together, or absent together. This is not entirely surprising but neither is it obvious. And therein lies the dangerous hypothesis: if all these attributes go hand in hand, it is much more plausible to suggest that economic success is passed on from generation to generation. “Such a process could be cultural, genetic or both,” comment the researchers in a footnote, “but the genetic version is the most controversial.” Quite so. But even the cultural transmission of economic success is a provocative notion, and a painful one to most economists, who are predisposed to hope that good policies alone may promote economic growth. Rustichini is not perturbed. For all his amiability, he is quite content to contemplate unwelcome possibilities. Although I don't necessarily think that intelligence is a factor in success neither do I think the unintelligent are guaranteed to fail. I have known many well educated failures, if you consider their earnings history. On the other hand, those with a higher level of education do tend to have a higher earnings history than those who do not. I think intelligence can be a factor in success. One reason is that those with higher intelligence tend to work through problems and challenges rather than giving up. The lesser intelligent are more likely to throw up their hands at the first snag and not move on or give up. I think perseverance has as much or more to do with success than any other single factor. Those who succeed simply don't give up until they obtain their goal. That is true whether the individual is a trucker or executive at a multinational corporation. I would also not necessarily equate intelligence with education. I think that you are born with intelligence. It is what you do with it that is important. An education will open possibilities and opportunities, but will not make you more intelligent. A good education will only show that you have the ability to learn. I have known some very successful truckers. One who comes to mind only had an 8th grade education. That doesn't mean that this guy wasn't intelligent, just uneducated. He made a lot of money in this industry. I think the only thing he ever did was drive a truck. I believe another factor in success in business is being single minded. You have a goal or purpose and you work toward that goal until you achieve your objective. You only fail with you give up. Business is full of obstacles. You learn by failing. When something fails then you change tactics. You still have the same goal, but may take a detour to achieve it. You have not failed, but the idea or concept may have failed. As long as you don't give up on your goal then you have not failed. I am also not convinced that success is genetic. I think that success can be learned. There have been some who have come out of extreme poverty to achieve a high level of success. Sometimes it is only one individual in a family who goes on to achieve success. It can be the entire family. Parents can instill success or at least a desire for success and achievement in their children. That isn't genetic but environment. There have also been children of highly successful people who have failed at everything that they have attempted. If it were DNA then they should be as successful or more so than their parents. Some do go on to achieve, but it has nothing to do with genetics. A lack of nurturing from the parents may be more a factor in their lack of achievement than DNA. |
Read "Fooled By Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. He has also written another excellent book; "The Black Swan"
I am convinced that a significant portion of success or failure in whatever portion of ones life is quite random. I also suspect that success does breed success in that catching one good break or making one smart/lucky choice can sometimes seemingly position one for another. I also think it works the same way in the other direction, which is why some people never seem to get a break or make any progress in life, no matter how hard they work. I would like to know more about this study. The thought that there may be a genetically imprinted component intrigues me. I wonder if it could also possibly be some sort of learned behavior, either of which might help explain why one branch of my family seems to be able to fall in pig crop and come out smelling like bacon while my branch always seems to struggle, just missing out on the great chances. |
What matters most is how they apply that intelligence. I know some people that might be considered having less then average intelligence, yet commit themselves to learning certain aspects of the industry. It may take them longer to learn, but learn they will.
In our capitalist society, anyone can succeed. I do not think there is randomness of it at all. At the end of last year my contract was canceled. I went to another company that I wanted to work for. I wasn't taking no for an answer. The result? Highest pay job I've ever had, with the most chances of advancement. |
Originally Posted by allan5oh
(Post 460022)
What matters most is how they apply that intelligence. I know some people that might be considered having less then average intelligence, yet commit themselves to learning certain aspects of the industry. It may take them longer to learn, but learn they will.
In our capitalist society, anyone can succeed. I do not think there is randomness of it at all. At the end of last year my contract was canceled. I went to another company that I wanted to work for. I wasn't taking no for an answer. The result? Highest pay job I've ever had, with the most chances of advancement. |
Originally Posted by GMAN
(Post 459954)
...I believe another factor in success in business is being single minded. You have a goal or purpose and you work toward that goal until you achieve your objective. You only fail with you give up. Business is full of obstacles. You learn by failing. When something fails then you change tactics. You still have the same goal, but may take a detour to achieve it. You have not failed, but the idea or concept may have failed. As long as you don't give up on your goal then you have not failed....
"2009 MAJOR DEFINITE PURPOSE switch to the flatbed division with my own stepdeck trailer" Tracy's book helped me buy the truck, believe it or now. I was procrastinating in Spring 2007 and when I read his book I did all the exercises that were supposed to pinpoint what you really want from life, and it worked! I bought the truck in April 2007 and became an owner-operator. Here's a link to the book page on amazon Amazon.com: Goals!: How to Get Everything You Want-Faster Than You Ever Thought Possible (9781576752357): Brian Tracy: Books |
Originally Posted by LightsChromeHorsepower
(Post 460019)
Read "Fooled By Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. He has also written another excellent book; "The Black Swan"
I am convinced that a significant portion of success or failure in whatever portion of ones life is quite random. I also suspect that success does breed success in that catching one good break or making one smart/lucky choice can sometimes seemingly position one for another. I also think it works the same way in the other direction, which is why some people never seem to get a break or make any progress in life, no matter how hard they work. I would like to know more about this study. The thought that there may be a genetically imprinted component intrigues me. I wonder if it could also possibly be some sort of learned behavior, either of which might help explain why one branch of my family seems to be able to fall in pig crop and come out smelling like bacon while my branch always seems to struggle, just missing out on the great chances. I don't believe that success or failure is random. If that were the case then it would not make any difference what we do. Based upon random selection we are either successful or failures. I am familiar with this concept. It isn't new. The problem with the theory is that it is unproven. If you look at those who have achieved a high level of success in any field there are common threads, but randomness isn't one of them. There are some people who seem determined to fail. It is their actions or how they handle obstacles that determine whether they are successful or fail. There are some proven paths to success. Just take this industry. One way to help insure your success is to save your money until you can pay cash or at least have a good down payment with a cash reserve. They get a job, take notes and learn. That will not insure your success but it will go a long way toward being successful. On the other side are those who want the illusion of being an owner operator, so they become involved a lease purchase with a carrier. They have little or no experience, credit or money. Those who seem to be successful owner operators put their desires aside to achieve their goal. They will start with a truck they can afford rather than one that they want. They look at this as a business first. Those who succeed keep costs down. Those who fail start with a truck they cannot afford, buy all the toys they cannot afford and are surprised when they lose everything. This is true in any industry, not just trucking. There are some who have made it on a shoe string. Those are few and far between. Success comes from planning and following your plan. They learn from their failures. Those who fail and continue to fail don't bother to plan and operate by the seat of their pants. They are surprised when success eludes them. Success or failure are neither random. It comes from planning and hard work or lack thereof. Those who fail do not learn from previous failures. Nor do they learn from mistakes. They continue making the same mistakes over and over again expecting a different outcome. Nearly every previous owner operator who has worked for me knew more than I did about running a trucking company, yet they are out of business and are likely still struggling. They blame me or anyone or anything for their failures but themselves and their actions. I have managed to stay in business for many decades. It hasn't always been easy. There have been many challenges along the way. Surviving in this environment has been one of the most challenging. What is the difference? Whatever the reason it isn't random. |
Originally Posted by GMAN
(Post 460064)
I don't believe that success or failure is random. If that were the case then it would not make any difference what we do. Based upon random selection we are either successful or failures. I am familiar with this concept. It isn't new. The problem with the theory is that it is unproven. If you look at those who have achieved a high level of success in any field there are common threads, but randomness isn't one of them. There are some people who seem determined to fail. It is their actions or how they handle obstacles that determine whether they are successful or fail.
There are some proven paths to success. Just take this industry. One way to help insure your success is to save your money until you can pay cash or at least have a good down payment with a cash reserve. They get a job, take notes and learn. That will not insure your success but it will go a long way toward being successful. On the other side are those who want the illusion of being an owner operator, so they become involved a lease purchase with a carrier. They have little or no experience, credit or money. Those who seem to be successful owner operators put their desires aside to achieve their goal. They will start with a truck they can afford rather than one that they want. They look at this as a business first. Those who succeed keep costs down. Those who fail start with a truck they cannot afford, buy all the toys they cannot afford and are surprised when they lose everything. This is true in any industry, not just trucking. There are some who have made it on a shoe string. Those are few and far between. Success comes from planning and following your plan. They learn from their failures. Those who fail and continue to fail don't bother to plan and operate by the seat of their pants. They are surprised when success eludes them. Success or failure are neither random. It comes from planning and hard work or lack thereof. Those who fail do not learn from previous failures. Nor do they learn from mistakes. They continue making the same mistakes over and over again expecting a different outcome. Nearly every previous owner operator who has worked for me knew more than I did about running a trucking company, yet they are out of business and are likely still struggling. They blame me or anyone or anything for their failures but themselves and their actions. I have managed to stay in business for many decades. It hasn't always been easy. There have been many challenges along the way. Surviving in this environment has been one of the most challenging. What is the difference? Whatever the reason it isn't random. Why don't you read the book before you comment on it? Are you frightened that some of your precious sanctimonious assumptions might challenged? You sound just like I imagine some of the Wall Street traders that Taleb describes must sound. Assuming that their success is a result of their hard work and superior intelligence, when in fact they have merely been lucky enough to be trading in a time interval in which tthe behavior of the market matches whatever their strategy happens to be. When the market forces shift they are unable to recognize the change and protect or modify their strategy. They blow up & lose everything. One of the most successful people I know is someone I consider to be a complete azzhole. But when we were talking one day he told me this; You know, I've made a lot of money, and I worked really hard to do it. but I've been lucky too" I'd say he gets it, you obviously don't. He probably doesn't need to read the book, you should. |
Originally Posted by LightsChromeHorsepower
(Post 460092)
Why don't you read the book before you comment on it? Are you frightened that some of your precious sanctimonious assumptions might challenged?
I have no need to be frightened about ideas. As I stated earlier, this is not new. I read about it several decades ago. Feel free to challege any of my ideas or assumptions.
Originally Posted by LightsChromeHorsepower
(Post 460092)
You sound just like I imagine some of the Wall Street traders that Taleb describes must sound. Assuming that their success is a result of their hard work and superior intelligence, when in fact they have merely been lucky enough to be trading in a time interval in which tthe behavior of the market matches whatever their strategy happens to be. When the market forces shift they are unable to recognize the change and protect or modify their strategy. They blow up & lose everything.
Originally Posted by LightsChromeHorsepower
(Post 460092)
One of the most successful people I know is someone I consider to be a complete azzhole. But when we were talking one day he told me this; You know, I've made a lot of money, and I worked really hard to do it. but I've been lucky too"
I'd say he gets it, you obviously don't. He probably doesn't need to read the book, you should. What some people call luck is preparation. You can get "lucky" if you are prepared. You prepare for success. When opportunities come along you are prepared and get "lucky." People who fail, usually do so by not preparing. Again, it isn't random. It has nothing to do with genetics. You either prepare for success of failure. It is a choice. I am not sure what good it would do for me to read a book about random success. If I am to be successful or fail then there is nothing that I can to to effect the outcome since everything is random. We all have setbacks in our life. Einstein, Edison and others had many setbacks over their lifetime. Some would have called them failures. A failure would have given up. They learned by their failures and persevered. That was not random. |
Originally Posted by LightsChromeHorsepower
(Post 460019)
Read "Fooled By Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. He has also written another excellent book; "The Black Swan"
I am convinced that a significant portion of success or failure in whatever portion of ones life is quite random. I also suspect that success does breed success in that catching one good break or making one smart/lucky choice can sometimes seemingly position one for another. I also think it works the same way in the other direction, which is why some people never seem to get a break or make any progress in life, no matter how hard they work. I would like to know more about this study. The thought that there may be a genetically imprinted component intrigues me. I wonder if it could also possibly be some sort of learned behavior, either of which might help explain why one branch of my family seems to be able to fall in pig crop and come out smelling like bacon while my branch always seems to struggle, just missing out on the great chances. |
I think that success can breed more success just as failure can breed more failure. When you are surrounded by successful people or have successful role models in your life then you are more likely to take on those same traits. The same could be said about failure. When you see your role models as drug dealers or living off the government then you are likely to mimic the same behavior. Just as there will be some who will blow their chance at success even though they had every opportunity, including good role models, there will also be those who grow up in poverty who break out from their surroundings to achieve great success.
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[QUOTE=GMAN;460098]I have no need to be frightened about ideas. As I stated earlier, this is not new. I read about it several decades ago. Feel free to challege any of my ideas or assumptions.
Where did you read about "it"? Please describe what you claim to have read. Making money in the stock market isn't rocket science. Those who make money trading do so by watching trends and taking advantage of those trends or cycles. Stocks have cycles. All of them have cycles. All it takes is a little money, a plan and patience. For everyone who makes money in the market someone will lose money. Those who lose money in the market usually do so by getting greedy. They don't follow those things which worked for them in the past. It is not random. This whole paragraph demonstrates your ignorance. Tell the guys writing the automatic trading algorithms that it's not rocket science. How many Nobel laureates did Long Term Capital have on their Board of Directors? Read "The (Mis)Behavior of Markets" by Benoit Mandelbrot and then make the above statement. Outliers exist and they will frock up every distribution they can. Markets, and indeed the universe as we know it, may well be fractal in nature. What some people call luck is preparation. You can get "lucky" if you are prepared. You prepare for success. When opportunities come along you are prepared and get "lucky." People who fail, usually do so by not preparing. Again, it isn't random. It has nothing to do with genetics. You either prepare for success of failure. It is a choice. I am not sure what good it would do for me to read a book about random success. If I am to be successful or fail then there is nothing that I can to to effect the outcome since everything is random. CAN YOU PLEASE READ THE BOOK BEFORE YOU START TO COMMENT ON IT? In one of his books Taleb talks about someone who did a study of successful entrepreneurs and decided that the largest quality they had in common was a willingness to take risks and thus decided that to be successful a person needed that ability. Taleb pointed out that if they had done a study of FAILED entrepreneurs they probably would have found an equal, if not greater, willingness. Sometimes the very qualities that get you to a certain point in life keep you from going any further. We all have setbacks in our life. Einstein, Edison and others had many setbacks over their lifetime. Some would have called them failures. A failure would have given up. They learned by their failures and persevered. That was not random [I]What does that statement have to do with anything we are discussing here? What I read into it is that you will only get lucky if you keep gambling. I agree that randomness can't strike you if you quit. That's why I keep going, someday I will get another opportunity. I will also say that people like Einstein and Edison appear to pretty randomly distributed..[/QUOTE |
Originally Posted by RostyC
(Post 459873)
Maybe it's me, but I never let anyone treat me with disrespect or try to screw me, no matter the circumstances, no matter the industry.
That is a BIG 10-4!!! If anybody lets anybody else treat them poorly, or lets anybody else "screw them over", without correcting the wrong done, this contributes to the problem. Standing up for yourself, and doing so in a straight forward and intellectual manner, puts an individual yards ahead of those whom sit on their hands and cry "Poor me"!! |
Originally Posted by Dejanh
(Post 460099)
Ive read Black Swan.....very interesting and a scary book at the same time which pretty much says that a failure of one single institution can bring about the collapse of all other....No one believed that there were black swans just like no one believed in the observation above.
I say any business "Too big to fail" is actually too big to be allowed to exist to begin with. Of course if you want to stop companies from reaching such cancerous proportions you will need regulations and heaven knows we can't have that. I think Taleb gave the mathematical odds of the 1987 Wall Street meltdown as somewhere in the quadrillions. But it still happened. How random is random? I was predicting a housing market correction in 2003. But I never imagined it would melt down like it has. I thought there would still be credit and that the demand for rentals would mushroom. Wrong on both counts. I'm not sure you could calculate the odds of the housing market behaving like it is, but it feels highly random to me. |
Originally Posted by LightsChromeHorsepower
(Post 460113)
That's why Long Term Capital Management was bailed out. It was the excuse given for bailing out AIG.
I say any business "Too big to fail" is actually too big to be allowed to exist to begin with. Of course if you want to stop companies from reaching such cancerous proportions you will need regulations and heaven knows we can't have that. I think Taleb gave the mathematical odds of the 1987 Wall Street meltdown as somewhere in the quadrillions. But it still happened. How random is random? I was predicting a housing market correction in 2003. But I never imagined it would melt down like it has. I thought there would still be credit and that the demand for rentals would mushroom. Wrong on both counts. I'm not sure you could calculate the odds of the housing market behaving like it is, but it feels highly random to me. Only reason why we have not collapsed as a country is because of foreign capital...I strongly believe that sooner or later VERY hard times will come and they will come with a vengeance making the 30's look like a walk in a park. Back then our dollar was sound and tied to gold, government was small and we didnt have deficits and debt of these proportion that we have now...... I am afraid what will happen when foreign capital looses its trust in ours and our dollar which is steadly declining in its value.. We will see.... |
Originally Posted by Dejanh
(Post 460116)
I have followed Nasseb for quite a while, but one that i think i like the best is Marc Fiber as well as Jim Rogers
Only reason why we have not collapsed as a country is because of foreign capital...I strongly believe that sooner or later VERY hard times will come and they will come with a vengeance making the 30's look like a walk in a park. Back then our dollar was sound and tied to gold, government was small and we didnt have deficits and debt of these proportion that we have now...... I am afraid what will happen when foreign capital looses its trust in ours and our dollar which is steadly declining in its value.. We will see.... I agree with you on our dependence on foreign capital. I think the best we can hope for is decades of slogging it out. The alternatives could be very, very scary. |
[quote=LightsChromeHorsepower;460109]
Originally Posted by GMAN
(Post 460098)
I have no need to be frightened about ideas. As I stated earlier, this is not new. I read about it several decades ago. Feel free to challege any of my ideas or assumptions.
Where did you read about "it"? Please describe what you claim to have read. It has been many years since I read about this. I don't recall much about it other than the concept. Making money in the stock market isn't rocket science. Those who make money trading do so by watching trends and taking advantage of those trends or cycles. Stocks have cycles. All of them have cycles. All it takes is a little money, a plan and patience. For everyone who makes money in the market someone will lose money. Those who lose money in the market usually do so by getting greedy. They don't follow those things which worked for them in the past. It is not random. This whole paragraph demonstrates your ignorance. Tell the guys writing the automatic trading algorithms that it's not rocket science. How many Nobel laureates did Long Term Capital have on their Board of Directors? Read "The (Mis)Behavior of Markets" by Benoit Mandelbrot and then make the above statement. Outliers exist and they will frock up every distribution they can. Markets, and indeed the universe as we know it, may well be fractal in nature. I have made and lost a lot of money in the market. Like I said, it isn't all that complicated. You watch trends and invest accordingly. Some people make money by trying to make it complicated. Granted, there are events, such as a depression, which can mix things up a bit, but money can and will continue to be made in the market regardless of world events. There are those who will make money with this down economy just as they did during the Great Depression of 1929. When I lost money in the market it is because I got greedy and threw what was working out the window. Most people lose money in the market when they get greedy. I have always lost money when I listened to a broker, the so called professional. It seems to me as though you put too much faith in what others write. What some people call luck is preparation. You can get "lucky" if you are prepared. You prepare for success. When opportunities come along you are prepared and get "lucky." People who fail, usually do so by not preparing. Again, it isn't random. It has nothing to do with genetics. You either prepare for success of failure. It is a choice. I am not sure what good it would do for me to read a book about random success. If I am to be successful or fail then there is nothing that I can to to effect the outcome since everything is random. CAN YOU PLEASE READ THE BOOK BEFORE YOU START TO COMMENT ON IT? In one of his books Taleb talks about someone who did a study of successful entrepreneurs and decided that the largest quality they had in common was a willingness to take risks and thus decided that to be successful a person needed that ability. Taleb pointed out that if they had done a study of FAILED entrepreneurs they probably would have found an equal, if not greater, willingness. Sometimes the very qualities that get you to a certain point in life keep you from going any further. I have only been commenting on what you have written. I don't need to read a book to comment on your words. I do agree that to be successful you need to take risks. You will never be successful unless you are willing to take a risk. I believe the difference is in the type of risk one is willing to take. Those who succeed are single minded and stay focused on their goal. They don't give up. When they have a setback they move on or take a different direction. Those who fail give up and don't even try again. We all have setbacks in our life. Einstein, Edison and others had many setbacks over their lifetime. Some would have called them failures. A failure would have given up. They learned by their failures and persevered. That was not random [I]What does that statement have to do with anything we are discussing here? What I read into it is that you will only get lucky if you keep gambling. I agree that randomness can't strike you if you quit. That's why I keep going, someday I will get another opportunity. I will also say that people like Einstein and Edison appear to pretty randomly distributed..[/QUOTE |
One thing that all of these guys have in common is their belief in free market capitalism which we do not have right now, and never actualy had even though it is getting blaimed for the current downturn.
If you are following financial news and things like that, Marc Fiber is the one who publishes that well known ,,gloom,boom,doom'' report that everyone references all the time when it comes to the market and its description and value. They all agree that these massive bailouts will hurt us in the long run and make things a'lot worse, and when i, as a regular Joe Jack start thinking about it and digging below the surface a bit, i come to the same conclusion no matter how optimistic i want to be.....simple fact that Americans debt to earning ratio is about 380%, sends chills down my spine, and when you have economy which is purely consumer driven, you get the point...how long can it go on..? |
Originally Posted by LightsChromeHorsepower
(Post 460113)
That's why Long Term Capital Management was bailed out. It was the excuse given for bailing out AIG.
I say any business "Too big to fail" is actually too big to be allowed to exist to begin with. Of course if you want to stop companies from reaching such cancerous proportions you will need regulations and heaven knows we can't have that. I think Taleb gave the mathematical odds of the 1987 Wall Street meltdown as somewhere in the quadrillions. But it still happened. How random is random? I was predicting a housing market correction in 2003. But I never imagined it would melt down like it has. I thought there would still be credit and that the demand for rentals would mushroom. Wrong on both counts. I'm not sure you could calculate the odds of the housing market behaving like it is, but it feels highly random to me. No business is or should be too big to fail. I have a couple of friends with whom we have discussed this depression for the last few years. I think we all agree that it happened with greater severity that we had hoped. The trends were there for anyone who cared to see and compare to history. The events that led to this collapse were pretty much identical to what happened in 1929. Safeguards that were put into place after the crash were supposed to have stopped this from happening again. The problem is that these safeguards were removed over the last couple of decades. History repeats itself. All you need do is read and learn. What happened during this collapse was a result of a number of events, some of which I believe were contrived. Prior to the crash of 1929 credit was too easy and people were trading in the stock market in record numbers. Most people thought they would always make money in the market. They over invested. When the inevitable collapse happened and their margins were called they lost everything they had. Margin accounts were only 10%. That changed to 50% after the crash, but it still happened. Both then and now there were similarities for those who would only open their eyes. I did think the collapse would happen before it did. Neither of these world events were random. They were a result of a chain of events. |
Originally Posted by GMAN
(Post 460129)
No business is or should be too big to fail. I have a couple of friends with whom we have discussed this depression for the last few years. I think we all agree that it happened with greater severity that we had hoped. The trends were there for anyone who cared to see and compare to history. The events that led to this collapse were pretty much identical to what happened in 1929. Safeguards that were put into place after the crash were supposed to have stopped this from happening again. The problem is that these safeguards were removed over the last couple of decades. History repeats itself. All you need do is read and learn. What happened during this collapse was a result of a number of events, some of which I believe were contrived. Prior to the crash of 1929 credit was too easy and people were trading in the stock market in record numbers. Most people thought they would always make money in the market. They over invested. When the inevitable collapse happened and their margins were called they lost everything they had. Margin accounts were only 10%. That changed to 50% after the crash, but it still happened. Both then and now there were similarities for those who would only open their eyes. I did think the collapse would happen before it did. Neither of these world events were random. They were a result of a chain of events.
We have had the recession and still HAVE IT, yet, no cleansing has occurred. What happened to all the bad investment, its still there buried underneath the carpet somewhere waiting to pop out..All the junk had been bought by our government and not only that, our government has created and borrowed trillions on top of trillions to plug up the hole this recession has created........ ...and the bad investments are still there... That is why i think this downturn is much more severe than it appears to be for one, as well as could be much worse than the depression of the 30's which really was not that long ago.... We are in a zombie state of mind right now as we have been given too much government medicine(stimulus). What happens when a stimulus(alcohol) wears off. Thats what scares me. After you get drunk you have a hangover, its just that this hangovert might be mother of them all. Lets hope not ! |
Yawn.... I have never put to much stock into what loadit blathers about.... Kevin0915 has more credibility... But LCH is partially on track though....
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Originally Posted by Dejanh
(Post 460133)
Problem with the current downturn is that the government is getting in the way of the system cleansing itself of all the bad investment. Thats what the recession should be all about.
We have had the recession and still HAVE IT, yet, no cleansing has occurred. What happened to all the bad investment, its still there buried underneath the carpet somewhere waiting to pop out..All the junk had been bought by our government and not only that, our government has created and borrowed trillions on top of trillions to plug up the hole this recession has created........ ...and the bad investments are still there... That is why i think this downturn is much more severe than it appears to be for one, as well as could be much worse than the depression of the 30's which really was not that long ago.... We are in a zombie state of mind right now as we have been given too much government medicine(stimulus). What happens when a stimulus(alcohol) wears off. Thats what scares me. After you get drunk you have a hangover, its just that this hangovert might be mother of them all. Lets hope not ! With the bailout the government is rewarding inefficiency and corrupt behavior. When you reward bad behavior then that reinforces that behavior where it will repeat itself. Contrary to what the media and Obama administration would like us to believe, this is not over by a long shot. All the government has done is prolong the agony. We have a government that is out of control and has lost touch with reality. |
Originally Posted by GMAN
(Post 460143)
With the bailout the government is rewarding inefficiency and corrupt behavior. When you reward bad behavior then that reinforces that behavior where it will repeat itself. Contrary to what the media and Obama administration would like us to believe, this is not over by a long shot. All the government has done is prolong the agony. We have a government that is out of control and has lost touch with reality.
Our entire economy favors only spending, not production and savings which make ones economy strong, untill we face our problems head on, we will never recover. |
Originally Posted by Orangetxguy
(Post 460111)
That is a BIG 10-4!!!
If anybody lets anybody else treat them poorly, or lets anybody else "screw them over", without correcting the wrong done, this contributes to the problem. Standing up for yourself, and doing so in a straight forward and intellectual manner, puts an individual yards ahead of those whom sit on their hands and cry "Poor me"!! |
[QUOTE=GMAN;460127]
Originally Posted by LightsChromeHorsepower
(Post 460109)
I never said anything about gambling. If you believe that random events control your success or failure without any contribution from you then you would not continue to try. I was not talking about Einstein and Edison personally, only their achievements. They succeeded because they refused to give up. It had nothing to do with randomness. Again, you assume that I am commenting on the book itself. I am only commenting on your statements about the book. You can't! You are basically talking trash about something (The book) that you know nothing about. Are you related to Kevin somehow? |
Originally Posted by Dejanh
(Post 460128)
One thing that all of these guys have in common is their belief in free market capitalism which we do not have right now, and never actualy had even though it is getting blaimed for the current downturn.
If you are following financial news and things like that, Marc Fiber is the one who publishes that well known ,,gloom,boom,doom'' report that everyone references all the time when it comes to the market and its description and value. They all agree that these massive bailouts will hurt us in the long run and make things a'lot worse, and when i, as a regular Joe Jack start thinking about it and digging below the surface a bit, i come to the same conclusion no matter how optimistic i want to be.....simple fact that Americans debt to earning ratio is about 380%, sends chills down my spine, and when you have economy which is purely consumer driven, you get the point...how long can it go on..? I do believe that a lot of our current problems stem from a lack of intelligent regulation, which resulted in a virtual takeover of our country by the financial industry. They pretty got to do whatever they wanted,(Enron, World Com, The tech bubble, Long Term Capital Management, Bernie Madoff, sub prime mortgage securitization, AIG) and now that it blew up on them, they want us (taxpayers, the very people they lied to and screwed to get where they are) to bail them out. Meanwhile the CEO's of the top 10 bailouts are getting between 6 million (Richard Davis, US Bankorp) and 54 million (Lloyd Blankfien, Goldman Sachs) in salaries this year. It's outrageous and it's far in excess of what CEO's in any other nation are paid. In terms of real production and benefit to our economy none of these guys are worth more than 10 times what a competent truckdriver is and if the driver does hazmat or OD they aren't worth that. Add in the enormous budget and current account deficits we have been running, consider our horrifically inefficient health care system, the huge amounts we spend on prisons and the military and it seems obvious to me that we are not going to be able to remain competitive in a global economy. If China, Japan and the Arabs start calling in what we owe them, we are in deep doo doo. If the planet adopts another reserve currency we are in deep doo doo. When you look at the possible outcomes of our current situation, there are a lot more bad ones than good. This whole situation would be really entertaining to me if I wasn't so heavily invested. |
Those executives are paid a lot of money because they make a lot of money for their shareholders. I have a problem with any of these companies giving huge sums of money to any employee when their companies are essentially bankrupt, especially with taxpayer dollars. I would much rather see executives make big sums by pushing for innovative ways in which to manufacture products in this country.
I am not sure that our health care system is inefficient. It is just expensive. Most practice defensive medicine. |
Originally Posted by GMAN
(Post 460204)
Those executives are paid a lot of money because they make a lot of money for their shareholders.
Then why are they being paid millions when their companies are being bailed out? Our CEO's are, on average, paid far more than those in other nations, such as Japan. If our executives are worth that much more, why are the Japanese buying us? Shouldn't it be the other way around? I am not sure that our health care system is inefficient. It is just expensive. Most practice defensive medicine. We spend a vastly greater percentage of our GDP on health care than any other industrialized nation AND the results we get, by any measure, are nowhere commensurate with what we spend. One survey, by the World Health Organization, ranks us 37th in overall health care quality, just ahead of Slovenia. Our system is broken by any rational standard. |
You asked why executives were paid so much money. I answered. You didn't like my answer so you leveled personal attacks. If you don't want an honest answer then don't ask the question. Companies don't care what other countries pay their executives. I do think that these financial institutions should freeze any bonuses and major salary increases until they can pay the government back. I can agree that some of these executives are over paid for running their companies into the ground. On the other hand, some are paid by performance. I have no problem paying anyone on performance. I do have a problem paying an executive when they don't perform. But then, it really doesn't make any difference what I think. It is the stockholders who decide if the CEO or other executives who run THEIR company is over paid. It is none of the government's business how much they are paid unless they are a stockholder.
Contrary to what you have stated, we have the best healthcare system in the world. I would trust our medical personnel over any other country. There are problems but it would be compounded if the government takes over the system. This country leads the world in development of drugs and medical innovations. The problem with the system is the government and lawyers. We have way too much of both that are involved in our healthcare. Insurance companies are also too involved in our healthcare. With all of the problems, we still have the best healthcare in the world. If you feel that I am putting forth drivel then feel free to not respond. I can't believe you would put any credibility in anything the World Health Organization would put forth. |
I think we rank 37th or so on healthcare in the world. But I would agree a lot of innovations in the medical field are right here.
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Originally Posted by BanditsCousin
(Post 460289)
I think we rank 37th or so on healthcare in the world. But I would agree a lot of innovations in the medical field are right here.
I'm paying $695 a month for my insurance (Aetna HMO). Can't actually afford to see a DOCTOR - but it does make my meds cheeper (then again, I had them re-written as generics so I can drop the insurance). When I'm REALLY feeling crappy - I go the emergency room up the street - hospital is on contract with Aetna, $60 co-pay - all the TESTS I want/need - best way to fly 1st class on a coach budget. If Comrade Obama this his healthcare plan is all that great, then why, when he and members of Congress are asked if they would GIVE UP their REALLY GREAT LIFETIME FREE HEALTHCARE for this plan - NOT ONE OF THEM SAID THEY WOULD - most common comment; NO COMMENT... Rick |
Originally Posted by GMAN
(Post 460253)
Contrary to what you have stated, we have the best healthcare system in the world.
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No one is turned away when they are ill in this country. I can only relate my personal experience. My wife has a number of serious health issues. If we lived in Canada or another country where healthcare is rationed she may not have gotten some of the care she has experienced over the years. Under the Obama and other socialist healthcare systems she could have been dead before receiving any healthcare. In fact, with all of her health problems they would not want her to be treated since she would use more than her fair share of healthcare. This country has developed most of the new drugs that have been developed over the years. Thing such as organ transplants were pioneered by American doctors. We were doing heart transplants before any other country in the world. Doctors such as Debakey, Coolidge and others were some of the early heart transplant surgeons. And don't forget about the first artificial heart. These were all American doctors. Innovations is surgical procedures such as microscopic surgery were also started in the U.S. The system has it's flaws, but I would still trust my health to most U.S. healthcare providers over any other place on the planet. I would be interested in knowing what criteria the World Health Organization used to establish their ranking. Sometimes it is how you ask a question. I don't necessarily put much credence in any of these type of rankings without knowing more about how they were done.
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Switching gears to education in 5...4...3...2...
:) |
I do not think this country has a bad healthcare service, but i do think that for the money that it is charging, it should be some ten billion light years away from any other in the world.
I cannot imagine why would people keep on attacking this administration when it comes to their plan for health care and its so called ,, rationing''... EVERY SINGLE PROCEDURE THAT HAD TO BE DONE ON BOTH OF MY PARENTS, HAD TO BE APPROVED BY THE INSURANCE FIRST. Some of them were not approved and they were not done, PERIOD. This is right now, the rationing that is going on within the system as we speak, yet these lies keep on popping up about these death panels, rations, lines, pull the line on granny..its just sad to see Americans prove to the rest of the world just how big of a idiots we are. 1.5 trillion over ten years is NOTHING in comparison with the massive millitary spending that we have.. If we only brought out boys home we could buy the ****ing continent, yet we continue on this path with no end in sight and hope for the best. WEll, the best aint coming unless we make it come, and no one will bring it to us. Only very good thing about this economic downturn is that it actualy started to hurt us. Unless it starts to hurt you never know that there is a problem but unfortunately, everything we are doing is opposite of what we should do. |
Originally Posted by gman
(Post 460575)
no one is turned away when they are ill in this country.
and that is a big part of why our health care costs are out of control. Because so many lack access to basic care they end up being treated in emergency rooms, after their condition has worsened. At a much higher cost. I can only relate my personal experience. If you have never experienced other countries health care, how can you compare? My wife has a number of serious health issues. If we lived in canada or another country where healthcare is rationed she may not have gotten some of the care she has experienced over the years. Under the obama and other socialist healthcare systems she could have been dead before receiving any healthcare. In fact, with all of her health problems they would not want her to be treated since she would use more than her fair share of healthcare. First- Didn't you just say above that nobody is denied access to treatment in this country? Second- Those are simple lies. She would get all the care she needed in any other industrialized nation. It's American insurance companies that have the horrible reputations for denying treatments to patients. I can cite two personal friends who have just experienced this. One is being denied tests she wants done by Kaiser. The other just lost his teenage daughter to cancer after taking her out of the local hospital and getting her to Stanford where they provided much more aggressive treatment, which will likely be at her parents expense. I could go on and on about this one. I challenge you to show me anything in the Obama plan that would in any way "ration" health care. This is like the increased taxes you claim you will be paying under Obama and like your assertion that the U.S. has the best health care in the world. I've challenged you to prove these & you can't. Because they simply aren't true. This country has developed most of the new drugs that have been developed over the years. Thing such as organ transplants were pioneered by American doctors. We were doing heart transplants before any other country in the world. Doctors such as Debakey, Coolidge and others were some of the early heart transplant surgeons. And don't forget about the first artificial heart. These were all American doctors. Innovations is surgical procedures such as microscopic surgery were also started in the u.s. The system has it's flaws, but I would still trust my health to most U.S. Healthcare providers over any other place on the planet. I would be interested in knowing what criteria the world health organization used to establish their ranking. Sometimes it is how you ask a question. I don't necessarily put much credence in any of these type of rankings without knowing more about how they were done. Of the 10 largest pharmaceutical companies in the world (by revenue) 4 are from the U.S. I think that disproves your first sentence above. The rest of the paragraph is equally brainwashed. In fact many people now leave the U.S. To get more affordable health care in other countries. If I wanted the best health care, I would go to France. It leads in most rankings and I have a former employee who owns a house there. He & his wife spend a as much time as they can there & they think they get better care there than here. The simple truth is that we spend a far higher percentage of our gdp on health care than any other industrialized nation and do not have a level of results anywhere near commensurate with our expenditures. If we do not correct this (along with the huge sums we spend on prisons and our military) we will soon be bankrupt, spending so much to service our debt that we will not be able to afford the infrastructure or educational systems that we so desperately need to compete in a global, high-tech, information based economy. Then we will all suffer, trust me. |
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