Useless, certain that's legit and not some rumor being passed as legit? I know there have been some supposed statements out of Malaysia which were fabrications that were pissing off the Malaysian authorities. If legit, it's very interesting.

Hog, that radioactive water was said to be moving eastward towards the US, not into the area this plane went missing.

Did see where the Malaysian Govt has allowed the FBI to take a look at the simulator in the pilots house. I understand the need for training but this pilot had uber amount of experience, why does he have a simulator that he plays with when not flying? Was he new to the 777 and needed help? MY question is, why did they wait a couple of days to allow us to take a look at it? Did it have some data on it that has been scrubbed?

Found it.

Give up. It just won't let me upload a picture. Anyway it's on Gilligans Island and the professor is trying to fix the radio.


One way to get the picture.

Yeah, I know. I just made that part up, but Godzilla is real, and you know, she could have swam to that area to lay eggs, and that plane was in the wrong place at the wrong time, as she was nesting.

I still don't think space aliens had a hand in this, though many are leaning toward that theory.


http://i97.photobucket.com/albums/l2...0/godzilla.gif

over at Communist News Network (CNN) they are going with the Black Hole theory.
typical of them to bring race into this, just to improve their ratings.

…. but, I'm just glad they don't think it was a White Hole, that did this. :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LV6A4QiAkVw

Chris,
it looks like the plane set ground on the shore
of this uncharted desert isle
with Gilligan,
the Skipper too.
the millionaire and his wife?
the movie star? I see the professor…
and Mary Ann?
here on this uncharted isle… (…here on this uncharted isle…)

so this is the tale of our castaways,
they're here for a long long time.
they'll have to make the best of things,
it's an uphill climb…. (..it's an uphill climb..)

the first mate and his Skipper too
will do their very best
to make the others comf'terble
in their tropic island nest… (.. in their tropic island nest…)

no phone, no lights, no motor car
not a single luxury
like Robinson Crusoe
it's primitive as can be…. (..it's primitive as can be…)

or an appendage with suction cups, would be more accurate. :roll3:

they are shape shifters, so no one really knows, what they really look like. When I was a kid though, I came in on my Mom and Dad in their bedroom one morning, and I saw these appendages with suction cups all over them, and my Dad's face was all screwed up, he looked like a lizard. …. no way I'm one of them.

Australia may have a hit on debris. It certainly looks more legit than what China showed. China's looked like a small volcanic island, the waves of the water appeared to give it away as an island. Anyways, Australia showed 2 photos that while grainy do happen to be in the right area, they were picked up off the end of the southern arc.

From what I've read, they were about 1200 miles off the coast of Australia. That's going to make aerial surveillance a bit of a trick. Assuming they can figure out what happened, the question of why it happen may not be as easy to answer.

Too bad we couldn't get this media enthusiasm and coverage over Benghazi, IRS, Fast & Furious, NSA spying, etc.

I am extremely frustrated this morning. I have been following this situation closer than anyone I know. I've read nearly everything I could find, been listening to wall-to-wall coverage on CNN, and checked every map I could find on the internet. I've heard every theory, and eliminated most of them. I have applied "Occam's Razor" to every possible scenario... and I come up with about the same thing I had from day one. And, my conclusions lead me to believe they are ALL looking in the wrong area!

I have a twitter account, but have never used it. I don't "tweet." I write long "analyses" on forums like this! lol. So... what do I do? WHO could I possibly call or email and have a chance they will listen to me? A local reporter? CNN? Michael Smerconish?

They will NEVER find this plane where they are looking.... even IF it is there (and I am wrong.) BUT.... if I am right, they might find it very quickly in the much shallower waters where I "think" it is.

Any suggestions? How do I get MY "theory" in front of someone who can get it noticed? I'm not looking for fame. I just want to help solve this.

Hobo, don't you think if you were close to the truth, your life would be in danger? :)

You know as well as I do, this is Obama's doing.
He's planning a strike before the November elections.

….oh ohhh…. wait…. I'm still being monitored by the FCC…. oh well, this whole website is now compromised. :eek1:

Hobo, where exactly do you think it might be? It might be an area they have already searched. In the chaos Malaysia is giving us in this search there is no telling exactly where they have and have not searched. At this point we know this is at least the 3rd area they are looking in. You should probably try contacting the NTSB with your thoughts, I believe they are helping the search. There is a mapping company that is using up to date sat images which you and I can go online and look over to help search. You flag anything you find and the company looks it over then forwards it for more scrutiny if they feel it's legit. Here's a link I found, yeah yeah, FNC has it, but it's all I found on my search! Virtual search party for Malaysian plane back up and running | Fox News They have a direct link to the search map.

Let's say this is the plane, sounds like they may have had an issue on board that knocked out all comms and electronics. In the mist of trying to find their way back to KL in the dark the pilots became incapacitated along with the passengers as they were making a turn to the South to come down the western coast of Malaysia. At that point it went into autopilot and flew straight South until it ran out of fuel and slammed into the ocean. It doesn't explain the erratic altitude changes unless it was a fire they were trying to put out thinking that climbing into thinner air would help choke it out? Maybe it was a smoldering fire. As for the final communication, it sounded very innocuous as they were at a point where they were being handed off to Vietnam ATC.

Roadhog said:

Naw... this is a civilian flight. I knew as much (in my time) as Snowden knew when he went all blabber-mouth! Maybe more. And I'm still alive cuz I kept my trap shut. lol.

You mean like how Dubya started a war just before the 2004 elections to guarantee his re-election as a "war time president?"

Don't worry. They already asked me what I knew about you and your affiliations. You've been ruled "mentally incapable" of being a threat. :p

Mr. Ford said:

Oh sure.... I tell YOU and then you call your BIL in the secret service and YOU get to take all the credit? Ha!

Just kidding. I'm gonna tell you what I think. In time. lol.

Well, it COULD be... but, I doubt it. Actually, there are maps that show where they have searched, and the search area in the Strait of Mallaca stops SHORT of the airport at Kuala Lumpur. They never searched south of there... on the same vector.

What? What plane? Where? Are you talking about the debris? Sorry, but I am confused.

This is pretty close to what I said earlier (when I wasn't indulging conspiracy theories.) Occam's razor! The most likely situation is inflight electrical fire or failure, and a seasoned pilot trying to return to KL. I find it highly believable that he would have inputed the waypoint near that island at the top of the "strait" as a possible diversion in case of an emergency he never really expected to happen. But, when it did... that's where the plane headed. Why not a 180 degree turn back to KL? Because he would have had to clear an 8,000 ft. mountain ridge before reaching the airport... AND... he'd be flying "blind" right back into departing aircraft!

Also.... the programmed path would have taken him between the military radars of TWO countries that might help find him if/when he needed to be found. Also... he would be avoiding heavily populated cities found mostly closer to the center of the country where KL is located. Fewer collateral casualties in case he crashed quickly. Also.... he might have thought he could control the "event" and would still have fuel to finish his flight if he didn't go back south!

Point is... we KNOW he went west. From there, as I suggested, he could fly down the strait of Mallaca toward a sea-level approach to KL. Even if he had NO guidance systems, he could see the landmass out his left window. WHY would he fly further west and go outside the landmass of Indonesia... and take a heading that would lead him to the point they are searching now?

I have seen maps that show total flight distance possible FROM THE LAST communication! That's bogus, cuz we know he went WEST first! That reduces that "range." We have seen these "arcs" that they call corridors based on the pings from the disabled ACARS system. And we have heard how many hours he/the plane must have flown before the last ping was heard (and a bit added for time flown before another would have registered.)

It took me awhile to understand why there was a gap in the ARCS/corridors where he might have been at the last ping. I understand it now. IF he had turned east... he would have created a bulge in the arcs. IOW.... the FIRST instance of the arc closest to his last location is the closest point he would have been after flying west to the waypoint, and then flying outward towards the last "ping" location. The FARTHEST location on the arc(s) would mean he had to fly straight in that direction from the last known VOICE contact (before running out of fuel.)

But, we pretty much KNOW he flew WEST to the waypoint first! So... he didn't HAVE enough fuel to reach the farthest point on the arcs (north or south.) They are searching that "farthest" location in the Indian Ocean.... and they are wrong because they are not considering the fuel/time expended flying west over the peninsula! Idiots!

I know I'm not explaining this clearly. It is very complicated and difficult to put into words. But, IF you consider the most likely possibility.... that he flew west to a known waypoint from which he could turn south for an emergency landing at KL (without endangering civilization,) and then made that turn down through the Strait of Malacca, and THEN.... became incapacitated and couldn't finish the landing.... he would have run out of fuel - AND - made his last "ping" just north of Jakarta, Indonesia! At the very northern intersection with the ACARS "arc."

He MAY be in the water just north of Jakarta, but... you'd think some fishermen would have found the debris. I'd be surprised if he made it OVER that slim island without anyone seeing him... but, possible. So, he could be in the water between Indonesia and northern Australia. But.... why no (water activated) ELC beacon? Well.... maybe, the plane managed to glide on for awhile longer and landed on the desert of northern Australia... northeast of Perth. Anyone go and ask the aboriginies yet?

Millions of dollars are being spent searching in the deepest part of the Indian Ocean... at a point beyond the last "ping" location possible (according to the arc,) and they may never find it even IF it is there. But... no one is searching at the first "available" point on the arc... which happens to be on a direct line with what I consider to be his most likely last flight path?

If you apply Occam's Razor, and eliminate all the conspiracy theories, the most likely place to search would be on a straight line from the last waypoint at the northern tip of the strait of Malacca... JUST outside of Indonesia's military radar (probably sleeping anyways,) to where it intercepts the beginning of the southern "arc" from Inmarsat. OR.... on land in Australia on that heading.

The last area searched in that area, stopped NORTH of KL!!

Yes, there are holes in my theory. But, not as many as I find in the other "theories." And the area is much smaller AND the water much shallower in my target area. But.... no one is looking there! Send ONE P8 out there and take a look around.

I could be wrong. When OUR gov't says they have "indications" that lead them to search where they are.... I understand what that might mean. But, I 'm not hearing the type of certainty that I would expect IF we had what I would call "real intel." If anything.... the LACK of support so far by American assets might support my belief that they do NOT have a "hit" on anything.

At this point, those "claims" cannot be substantiated. But, they are not inconsistent with my theory OR the others.

Maybe. Low tire pressure, long takeoff roll, hot night. It's happened before. Has THIS "conspiracy plot" happened before? Nope. So... Occam's razor points towards that very coincidence.

Yeah.... just "call them up." I'm sure they want to hear my ideas.

Heard all about this "crowd sourcing." Problem is... they're not even photographing the area I want to search in. And... my computer would pitch a FIT!

Thanks for taking me seriously, though. And thanks for listening.

SURE you can! It's all over FauxNews and TheBlaze! Not to mention InfoWars and ALL of conservative talk radio!

You just can't get the "intelligent public" to waste their time on it. lol.

You DO know it's been proven that Dubya had the Joint Chiefs finalize a plan for invading Iraq MONTHS before 9-11.... right? Dont hear much about THAT, do you? Not even on "liberal radio."

New stealth technology?
[ATTACH=CONFIG]1339[/ATTACH]

Got you also. Pictures no good. Maybe the alien theory is for real.

Every photo I post, whether I upload it or put a direct link, fails. EVERY single one.

I least I know I'm not the only one with the problem.

Well, I'm now convinced that of all the things we've been told about the disappearance of Malaysian Airlines Flight 370, there's one thing we haven't been told..........
.......... The truth.

I really am curious about this new mass of "debris" they picked up on satellite. Said one of the hits looked like pallets, which were known to be on board the plane.

Hobo, your doing the social media thing, if you have twitter, send them an idea on where to look. It's easier than calling them up. Maybe an email? Let's say your onto something, you would think it have been seen with the amount of aircraft flying over that vicinity going in and out of Malaysia on passenger airlines or even search and rescue heading out to look in the other area's.

Mr. Ford95 said:

Well... too bad. lol. They've forgotten that (and the other objects that could have been part of a plane,) and moved to another location. It appears to still be on the "arc," but further north due to deciding that the plane used up more fuel during the time it was making the "turn and dive." So.... does that mean that the less amount of fuel they "estimate" it had... the further north on the arc they are? Okay... what if the pilot dumped some fuel before blacking out? If he was trying to get back to KL for an emergency landing (he KNEW his front landing gear had melted and started a fire?)... he would have dropped it in the Strait of Malaca and it would just be another oil slick. (which they haven't searched for THERE.) This is standard procedure and even caused the crash of that plane off Nova Scotia (was it?)

I'm still having analysis problems with that "arc." But, I can't explain what is bugging me. At any rate... IF they say the last ping could be at that northern point, and that is on line with my "theorized last vector," and he no longer had enough fuel to fly as far away as they think.... then, "I" would start looking at that northernmost point! I already said I don't believe it could be north of Jakarta without being seen by now by local maritime traffic. But.... there is a lot of ocean between that section of Indonesia and the northwest coast of Australia.

Absolutely right, if you consider the waters just north of Jakarta. I've abandoned that possibility. But.... if you move south of that Indonesian island (Java is it?) and head towards Australia... there is a very large area of open ocean, and it fits into the "invisible wedge" between flights from/to Perth or any other major city in Australia (the rest of them being further to the east,) and any point in Malaysia or other destinations in that area (even Jakarta.) I.E: not on any heavily traveled air route. Also.... any aircraft flying those routes would be too high to see any debris.

Oh... but, wouldn't the debris have washed up on some beach in Australia or Indonesia by now? Nope. Far enough out, it would have been carried by surface currents more or less perpendicular to either coast. But, wait.... aren't the currents in the Indian Ocean flowing counterclockwise in a "gyre" that wouldn't allow the debris to be as far south as we MAY be seeing it? Nope! I did some serious googling, and in that area, the current flows WEST until it hits the gyre.... and a MAJOR current (the Leeuin Current?) then flows SOUTH between Perth and the gyre itself. It almost exactly creates a path that would have taken the debris to the "current" search area in this amount of time.

Ain't no SARS assets left in that area to search where I'm "predicting." They've all been sent to the FIRST debris site! And... no REASON for them to look into that area without considering my theory.

I opened a twitter account a few years ago, but don't even remember how to access it (or use it!) But, I agree that seems to be the way things are going for "instant feedback" with media journalists. I may try it. Email? Maybe. I may check out the websites for the NTSB, AAIB, the Australian one, etc. and SEE if there is any kind of forum or discussion going on, or a "contact us" email addy.

Maybe, maybe not. What "I" am most upset about is the lack of FACTS or data. You can't get a straight (or consistent) story from the media cuz they keep changing their minds... AND misreporting certain data and facts! HALF of them are still confused about the difference between an ELB and the black boxes. MOST of them are either asking the wrong questions of their "experts," or are drawing the wrong conclusion because they don't understand the first thing about ANY of this!

But, it IS possible that someone (Malaysia or Indonesia or others,) isn't owning up to what they "know," cuz they don't want to admit they were asleep at the wheel! That they either SAW and didn't report an unidentified aircraft... or, that their enemies can fly a whole Squadron into their territory without being SEEN! lol.

About that arc....
 

If I understand it right, Inmarsat is saying that the last ping was somewhere on that southern arc. (Let's forget about the northern arc for now, as I feel it has been discounted with good reason.)

That's a LOT of miles between the northern and southern point on that arc! What kind of "fuel consumption" would account for that much variance? The media is CONSISTENTLY calling this a flight "corridor," whereas Inmarsat actually showed potential corridors as being far to the west (with some variation to the east.... and UP the corridor. This makes NO sense!

The ONLY way the plane could have been following that "corridor," is if it was making a gentle right turn! AND.... all of the previous 3 or 5 "pings" would have had to be at that same distance from the satellite... and therefore ALONG that corridor.

IF Inmarsat is saying that the last location was somewhere along that ARC, then someone is figuring it COULD have run out of fuel at the northernmost point on the arc.... or crashed there at the end of fuel expectations (at 8:20 or so.)

My problem is.... if radar tracked it near the waypoint at the north end of the Malacca Strait, it had already been airborne for about 1.5 hours (and they SAY it used about 30-40% of its fuel by then. HOW could it have flown to the southern point on the arc in only 5 more hours? ONLY by going right over Indonesia "proper." But, that's not even the suggested "path" that Inmarsat has proposed!

I WISH I had an aeronautical map of this area, complete with a "legend" showing miles. Take a STRING that represents 8 hours of flight time based on fuel capacity... and somehow "adjusted" for speed and altitude (fuel consumption.) "PIN" it to the KL airport as a starting point, then stretch it around "pins" at the last point of voice contact and the waypoint at the northern end of Malacca Strait. NOW.... Straighten in out and pencil in the "arc" of how far it could have gone and see where it crosses the ACARS "ping" arc for the last known location (based on the pings.)

I suspect it will be about halfway between the northern and southern "points" on the arc.... but, it would have to cross Indonesia "proper" to get there! Now.... consider that he dropped fuel for an emergency landing before becoming incapacitated. That would shorten the string and bring the end of the "truncated" string much closer to the NORTHERN point on the arc... and right on line with my 'theorized vector' down the Strait of Malacca towards his home airport!

I guess my point is.... If you took that string, and put the END of it at the northern point on the arc.... you would have some "slack" in the string that would have to be taken up either by a westward flight path... AND another course correction towards that point... OR... a "fuel drop" which is standard procedure for a pilot returning to his departure airport and expecting to have to "belly land" the plane. [fire in the area of the nose gear.]

IF he was returning down the Strait of Malacca... at 12,000 feet for pressurization reasons... he would also be using MORE fuel to stay aloft.... even at a slower speed! [and MAY be below effective radar from Indonesia AND Malaysia!] If fire or electrical "short" took out his comms, he couldn't tell anyone he was "on approach."

My point continues to be.... using Occam's Razor.... the most likely scenario would have the pilot trying to return to base, fighting a fire, no comms, and incapacitated before he could attempt a landing. IF he had dropped fuel, he would probably splash down ON my "theorized vector" and just south of Java Island. OR... he made it to land in the deserts of Northwest Australia. (Flight of the Phoenix... anybody?)

IF in the water south of Java.... the currents would have the debris right about where it has been "reported" by now. IF on land (in Australia) .... no one is out there in the desert looking for them!

The ONLY scenarios... for me.... that put it at the southern point on the arc... require too much "speculation" and conspiracy theory, and the "data" (with the recent adjustment of the partial ping,) COULD put it south of Java Island or just inside Northwest Australia where there are no cities, and nothing but desert.

I NEED to know where the last 5 pings were! Were they ON that curved corridor? I doubt it! If not... then it wasn't flying along the corridor... as the media says! It "intercepted" that arc at the point of the last ping (and actually a bit farther to the east with the partial ping.) Which means either that it went westward to USE fuel and time... OR... it flew straight down the Strait of Malacca and ran out of fuel (and time) at the northernmost point of the "arc." Look THERE!

It's already understood that Malaysia military was asleep at the wheel over this. If this had happened in Russia......oh wait it did......some heads rolled over it AND the plane was found rather quickly after it had crash landed. Flight 902 was initially thought to be a Russian plane coming back in and allowed to penetrate too far in in their eyes. This incident lead directly to the KAL 007 shoot down 5 years later.

It's an interesting theory with what info you have at your disposal Hobo. I think I heard something last week about the use of Occam in the search. I have this feeling that it's going to turn out like the Earhart deal, we'll never know.

I found a good site with good analysis. It also posted the 5:11 pings and subsequent ones. I couldn't figure out the earlier ones for awhile. Then... I think I did. IMHO, there is NO way that plane reached the 5:11 point on the enclosed map in only 3 hours from the Andaman Islands. Check out this site, and the map that shows the ping arcs. Then read my latest theory as I posted it on that site.

The Aviationist » All you need to know about MH370: facts, timelines, systems, findings, theories

My post:

Great article(s) - great site. I have a theory based on Occam's Razor that no one seems to be considering. When the available "knowns" fit several scenarios, the simplest is usually the correct one. Forgetting for a moment that we don't know what happened, the most reasonable theory is a fire or electronics "short" on the plane that caused the pilot(s) to want to return to base (KL.) Perhaps, hypoxia caused the PNF to switch off the transponder instead of switching freqs to Ho Chi Minh? Anyways... they made a left turn. NOT a 180 because that would have them returning to KL against outbound aircraft without the ability to squawk their position. Too dangerous. Not to mention, IF they had a decompression, they would have to fly low and might not clear the 8,000 foot mountain range just east of KL. So... the pilot wanted to go to a waypoint (possibly pre-programmed for just this eventuality) at the north end of the Strait of Malacca and then turn south towards the "sea level" airport at KL.

I had a hard time believing the "suspected" turn north towards the Andaman Islands, but... it seems to be the only possibility that matches up with the satellite pings. So, let's say Thai radar was correct and he headed north for some reason. The 1:11 ping would have been very near his last "voice" contact. The 2:11 ping would have been just east of the first waypoint west of Malaysia. The 3:11 ping would have been a ways before reaching the Andaman Islands. Assume, he flew about 30 minutes PAST the islands before turning around at about the point of the 4:11 ping.

Now, heading back down the Strait of Malacca, he would intersect the 5:11 ping on a point on the arc that doesn't show on these "maps." (not sure why... maybe the VHF scenario?) Then the 6:11 ping would be somewhere before reaching KL while flying down the strait. The 7:11 ping falls just south of KL (I think) and the final ping at the northernmost point of the southern arc.... Just north of Jakarta.

With the additional "half ping" OR the fact that the aircraft could glide for some distance before crashing, I believe he cleared the island of Java and crashed in the deeper waters between Java and northern Australia. Right on line with the northernmost point of the arc as vectored from the Andaman Islands.

I see no way it could have made it to the point the map is showing for the 5:11 ping that far south and west over the Indian Ocean!

IF he did indeed decend to 12,000 ft, he might have been below both Malaysian and Indonesian primary military radar (and neither want to admit it.) He may have even dumped fuel for a belly landing. He most likely would have reduced speed (which might even eliminate the need for the 30 minutes past Andaman.)

NONE of the debris fields where they are looking has proved to be an aircraft. But, even if it DID.... there is a primary current (the Leeuwin current?) that flows south between the Indian Ocean "gyre" and the coast of Australia which, by now, would have carried the debris to the point where they are searching.

In summary: IF the northernmost point on the 8:11 arc is near Java, and is on line with a return to base track down the Strait of Malacca, why not search THERE? The water is much shallower, and calmer. They DID feel it necessary to search the waters of the Strait... but NORTH of KL only! They stopped too short. Search the area south (and possibly north?) of Java island.

Occam's Razor says the pilot(s) were trying to return to KL through the Strait of Malacca, and became incapacitated before they could land. The autopilot kept the plane going southeast until it ran out of fuel near Java.

It seems to me that if the plane had crashed that they would have found at least some wreckage.

You would think GMAN, but we have no solid idea just where it went. Now there is a push to make all planes where they can never go dark like this. In one of the previous crashes similar to this, a pilot pulled a small fuse and made the plane partially go dark. The Indian Ocean isn't exactly a small pond or lake, everything on this plane except for the "pings" stopped working while the plane flew on an unknown course for a few more hours. As the Aussie's stated, we aren't looking for a needle in a haystack, we're still looking for the haystack. Once they start finding actual, verified plane debris they will then start tracking it/tracing it to hopefully find the source.

Hobo, wouldn't some debris wash up somewhere where someone would say hey what is this doing here and call police? I mean, if it went down somewhere around where your saying, shouldn't something have washed up? Or am I too far North on your scenario?

You would think... by now... but, IF it went in between Java and Northwestern Australia.... the currents would continue to carry the debris southwest around the corner of Australia and down near Perth. Even IF something washed up on the coast near where I described, I'm not sure there is so much as a fishing village up there. Well, actually.... Port Hedlund is close. See this map:

Australia Map

Of course, IF it made land.... there is nothing out there but the Great Sandy and Gibson deserts.

Update: Not so sure of my theory anymore. I heard that the Indonesian navy WAS conducting search in the waters south of Java (I think.) But.... it's still a big triangle. Also.... hard to believe Aussie Jindalee radar system didn't see it there.

Update 2: Chinese possibly have found a pinger signal near my "other" suspected site - halfway up that arc between Java and their first search area. I hope they're right!

Either way, I hope I'm right that the pilot(s) were trying to return to KL.... and not trying to disappear in the Indian Ocean.

Have you seen the recently released full transcript of ATC comms? Media keeps saying "nothing abnormal" but.... I see two instances of possible "confusion" in the pilot's responses... and then there's that OTHER pilot that contacted them and only got a garbled, mumbling response. Could have been a very slow decompression/oxygen loss.

Yes I did see the transcripts which seem to indicate the pilots were signing off from Malaysia ATC in process of changeover to Vietnam ATC. If true that another pilot tried contacting them and got that response, it could definitely signal they had oxygen masks on. Did they believe they had oxygen when they really didn't? Saw a black box tracker is now on site to search where the Chinese got a hit.

Hey, Golf!!

I've really gotta' hand it to you. You've put a lot of work into trying to think this thing through. The people in charge seem rather encouraged by the latest pings. What will come of it?? We can only wonder. Still, you've exhibited some very sound path roads of logic and reason in following this.

My hat's off to you!! :cool:

Not Official.......Yet........But It Looks Like They're Closing In On It.

The team of international investigators hunting for Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 has "unquestionably" located the missing jetliner and could soon have high resolution images of the wreck site, an expert in deep sea recoveries of ships and planes told FoxNews.com.

'There is virtually no chance that the pings picked up by ships towing sophisticated listening devices could be anything other than signals emitted by the plane's flight data recorder, or "black box," David Mearns, of Blue Water Recoveries, a United Kingdom-based company that holds the Guinness World Record for the deepest ocean recovery and has assisted searches for sunken planes.

"This cannot be coming from anything else," Mearns said. "This is the best equipment there is, and the signal is unmistakable.”

If Mearns is correct, what remains is to pinpoint the precise location, map the debris field on the seabed and begin recovering parts of the plane and, possibly, the bodies of victims. The site is some 15,000 feet, or 2.8 miles deep, Mearns said, and in a remote part of the Indian Ocean that is deeper than the Titanic's final resting site and too deep for humans to dive.

Mearns, who is not involved in the effort but knows people who are and has been through the process himself, said he believes Angus Houston, the retired Australian air chief marshal heading the Joint Agency Coordination Center, is deliberately awaiting incontrovertible visual evidence out of respect for the passengers' families. The search for the Boeing 777, which disappeared March 8 with 239 passengers and crew, has been flawed from the beginning. So far, an estimated $50 million has been spent on the effort, which involves teams from the U.S., Australia, Great Britain, China and Malaysia.

"The reason they haven’t announced it is what the families have gone through in terms of all the false leads, and they are demanding that they see pieces of wreckage," Mearns said.

Houston himself on Tuesday gave his strongest indication yet that he believes the pings mean the searchers are above the wreck site.

"(The analysts) therefore assess that the transmission was not of natural origin and was likely sourced from specific electronic equipment," Houston said. "They believe the signals to be consistent with the specification and description of a flight data recorder.

“I believe we’re searching in the right area,” he added, “but we need to visually identify aircraft wreckage before we confirm with certainty that this is the final resting place.”

If the pings are indeed from the black box, the searchers may have won a race against time. The batteries that power the recorders are only built to last about a month, and that's how much time has elapsed since the plane disappeared. Once the battery dies, finding the plane could become nearly impossible, according to experts.

Mearns laid out the search process in phases, with Phase I, a search for a floating debris field, having failed. Because investigators spent weeks looking in the wrong places, tell-tale pieces of the plane have long since dispersed or sunk, he said. The next step was to hunt for the plane by listening underwater for signals transmitted from the black box, an effort that even Mearns saw as nearly hopeless until ships with sophisticated listening equipment began picking up signals in recent days.

Mearns' company set a record in 1996 by probing the wreck of the World War II German blockade runner the "MV Rio Grande," at a depth of 20,000 feet in the South Atlantic. It also took part in the recovery of the cockpit voice recorder from South African Airways Flight 295, which went down in the Indian Ocean in 1987, killing all 159 aboard.

Now, investigators are working to "box in" the source of the ping first picked up by a Chinese ship, then heard again on Sunday by crew aboard Australian naval ship Ocean Shield, which has a sophisticated pinger locator on loan from the U.S. Navy. They have to hope the battery holds out long enough to help them triangulate the box's location.

By crisscrossing over the area where the pings were detected, searchers can narrow the search field from 300 square nautical miles or so to 50 or less, Mearns said. Once that is done, the next phase -- a side-scan sonar search of the seabed using the Bluefin 21, a submersible vehicle that can drop down 2.5 miles to map the seabed. That tool, 21 inches in diameter and shaped like a torpedo, owned by U.S. Navy contractor Phoenix International and now aboard the Ocean Shield, will help craft a route and plan for the next phase, carried out by an unmanned ROV, or remotely-operated vehicle. "The Bluefin has a camera that can get an entire map of the debris field, with high-resolution images," Mearns said.

Once investigators on the surface have the wreckage mapped, the ROV will be sent down to recover the black box. Information gleaned from that will tell them what else they need to recover. In the case of TWA Flight 800, which went down off the shore of New York's Long Island in 1996, investigators recovered nearly all of the plane, reconstructing it in a hangar in an effort to determine what caused the crash. In other cases of plane crashes over the ocean, only the black box was recovered, because information contained in it answered the key questions.

"Investigators will recover whatever they feel is necessary, depending on what information they get from the black box," Mearns said. "That information may direct them to pick up a larger or smaller amount of wreckage.”

The ROV could also be used to recover bodies, he said. In the case of Air France Flight 447, which went down in the Atlantic in 2009 after departing from Brazil for Paris, 154 bodies were recovered during a process that involved robotic submarines and spanned two years. Some 74 bodies were never found.

While most of the work in recovering Flight 370 will be done aboard the Ocean Shield, the land-based component of the investigation will take place at the nearest sufficient port, in Perth, Australia, Mearns said.

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Thanks, Useless. But, it seems my theories were Partly wrong. Although... until they actually FIND it.... I'm not conceding totally! lol.

The original search area was based on an assumption that the plane turned left at the last known RADAR contact (in the strait of Malacca) and assuming fuel consumption, flying right over Indonesian landmass, to the southernmost point on the ARC. (I saw this graph somewhere.) That would have been the southernmost point to start searching... and they SAID that was what they would do.... and then work their way back in.

But, there was always this "possible" right turn towards the Andaman Islands. From there... the fuel wouldn't last as long and they SHOULD have been searching further UP the arc. NOW, they say it might have actually gone that way, and THEN skirted ADF systems on the western coast of Indonesia (who weren't giving us any information for weeks!)

I chose NOT to base my analysis on this "possible turn" north before heading south. I might have been wrong.

Unfortunately, they wasted the battery lifetime searching that far south. Remember my second theory... or the one that included the "string?" Once they decided that it DID fly up to the Andaman islands, for whatever reason, the "string" said they couldn't be that far south! So.... they moved the search area further north along the arc.

This became the search area that I mentioned could be the possible location (if my original theory was wrong.) And, it seems, this is where they are finding the possible pings from the black boxes.

Still don't know why or WHO chose that path! Still not sure it is there.

I think they are plotting the "expected" path due to the Indonesians not being willing to admit they didn't see it! Not SURE they went around the northern tip of Indonesia to avoid "sleeping" radar! They could end up at the SAME point IF they turned south through the Strait of Malacca, flew low and slower, possibly dumped fuel for an emergency landing, and then lost control while the RIGHT engine flamed out.... causing a slow turn to the right... and ending up exactly where they say they are getting "pings."

I can't deny the "pings" are where they say they are. Still... at my "second" location. But, it doesn't PROVE they went around the horn. IF they did it to avoid radar.... how do they KNOW it went that way? They are scoped in on a constant airspeed and altitude that they are only ASSUMING!

They are using a "string" that is of a certain length based on assumptions of airspeed, altitude, and fuel consumption. Not ONCE have I heard a theory that includes dumping fuel for a return to base scenario with a blown/burnt out front landing gear!

They are assuming nefarious actions by the crew OR a hijacker (without a cause) and NOT the most reasonable expectation that the pilot was trying to save the plane and the passengers!

I HOPE these pings are for real... and that they locate the plane on the ocean floor and FINISH this thing! Then... ONLY the FDR will possibly provide some answers. But... I wish they would STOP convulsing over the fact that they haven't found any "wreckage" FLOATING on the surface in the SEARCH AREA! After 30 days.... it would be long gone SOUTHEAST!

Still... too bad they wasted time at the southernmost possible location on the arc! I understand their reasoning at the time... but... I NEVER believed that was the route, airspeed and altitude of the plane.

And now... it seems that they are starting to come in line with MY thinking! lol.

And with the batteries about dead.... too little, too late!

Well, since it's been more than a week since the battery ceased to exist on the black boxes several attempts to send a robot down have proved tough. On the first attempt, it reached it's max depth of 15K ft and immediately re-surfaced.....data showed nothing. Ocean is pretty deep there. 2nd attempt didn't even come close to the same depth before it had a malfunction and came back up. Why not get James Cameron's sub that went down into the Mariana Trench at around 35K ft? That is considered the deepest point around that region and can obviously reach to where the plane might be laying at a shallower depth but deeper than the robots can go.

I feel so sorry for the families of those who were on that flight. It has been a real yo yo effect with their emotions. First, they find some debris that "might" be part of the plane. Then, they find that it has nothing to do with the missing plane.

Well, in this case it's not really a matter of being right or wrong. Even the professionals are confounded here. Still, you've demonstrated some impressive measures of objective analysis and critical scrutiny.

:cool:

If the plane did crash into the ocean, it will be more difficult to find it without the transponder signal.

We may eventually find it if we keep looking but it could take 2 years to locate it. The robot moves so slow, takes 6 days to cover the same ground the towed array behind a ship can cover. Still looking at a very large square as they were unable to get enough pings to close the target zone down any smaller. It was closed down some, but IIRC, they said it was like 20k sq miles still. Depending on depth, may have to build a robot that can go deeper to recover parts and pieces.

Mr. Ford: It is my understanding that the bottom there is NOT deeper than the UAV's can go (though close to their limit.) The earlier problems had something to do with the programming (?) Pretty sure it is working properly now. Any manned sub/DRV would (for some reason) not be equipped with the side scanning sonar, and be mostly dependent on visual search. This is not good enough when they haven't located a more precise area yet. What I don't like is that the UAV (if it gets a "hit") would have to resurface and have the sonar swapped out with a camera! Geez... is it so hard to have BOTH?

JUST heard that they are considering another method besides the Bluefin. Not sure what that could be BUT a manned DRV or sub, so.... maybe you're on to something. Not sure also about that 20k figure. They are concentrating on an arc that includes 4 ping detections from the TPL. Seems it shouldn't be THAT many square miles... but hard to tell by the graphic they show. I've really stopped watching to some extent.

At any rate... I heard that after 5 days, they had covered about 15% of the prime search area. That's not a bad rate. That leaves about 30 more days or less. Sounds better than 2 years. But... we'll have to wait it out.

Also.... IF they find the wreckage, the DRV's already exist to go to the depth needed to recover parts and pieces.

It has now been one month since Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 mysteriously vanished from the radar screens. The search, which has now become the most exhaustive and expensive aircraft search in history, has yielded sporadic clues as to the missing plane's whereabouts, but the precise location of the aircraft remains unknown.

Malaysian government officials, working in cooperation with American NTSB experts, now believe they have discovered the reason why Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 vectored off it's intended course. Ironically, they the have also made it clear that hopes of locating the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 that is now believed to be at the bottom of the Indian Ocean have grown slimmer. In fact, they now concede that the missing Boeing 777 may never be found.

The reason for growing pessimism in the search process is apparently based upon upon factors pertaining to the work histories of Flight 370's pilots, Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah, and First Officer Fariq Abdul Hamid.

Today, Malaysian government spokesperson, Fhauqui Suquee, disclosed that during the course of investigating the Boeing 777 pilots' backgrounds, it was discovered that both pilots had previously held visas which permitted them to work in The United States as truck drivers. Flight 370's Captain, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, had previously worked as a Lease Operator for C.R. England, was deeply in debt, and was being hounded by bill collectors for money he owed as result of breaking his lease.

First Officer Fariq Abdul Hamid drove as a trainee for SWIFT Transport. According to a SWIFT Transport dispatcher who has asked that his name not be revealed, Fariq Abdul Hamid and his trainer, driver Dhamitchu Sunhovabitch, were delivering a load of pet food from Chicago, Illinois to a grocery warehouse in San Marcos, Texas, when Fariq Abdul called the SWIFT dispatcher to report that their truck had run out of fuel in Las Cruces, New Mexico. The dispatcher confirmed that Sunhuvabitch is one of SWIFT Transport's most experienced trainers, with a career as a professional truck driver spanning nearly seven months, and logging a total of nearly 20,000 miles. Five and a half of those months have been spent as a trainer.

In an exclusive interview with CNN, Sunhovabitch stated that Hamid showed considerable promise as an OTR driver, having driven nearly 700 miles in just two week's time. "I don't know if that's a record for the most miles driven by a trainee in such a short period of time here, but if it isn't, it comes pretty close!!" "He (Hamid) was doing quite well, having only one wreck in his first four days as a trainee." "We were ready to assign him a truck when he received his job offer from Malaysia Airlines".