RECESSION?? Can You tell.......................
 

HI

There is always a slowdown in just about every business after January. But, can you guys tell if there is a dramatic slowdown in business/cargo compared to previous years?

Crunch

Sure can, less miles, more waiting, no raise over a year.

The tax season plays a role in the "grocery" business. I work for SYSCO, and normally the first couple months of the year is a slow time for us. Most of our customers are doing taxes, etc, and usually buy just enough products to get by. Usually, around March, and April, it picks back up.

It's not a question mark here in Michigan, as we HAVE been in a recession here for some time. The December unemployment rate reached 7.6 percent, which is the highest in the nation. This rate also is the highest level for Michigan in 14 years. We've lost over 90,000 jobs last year alone.
People have been bailing out of the State like rats running from flood waters. Our economy here has been so bad, for so long...people are just getting the hell out.

The company I was working for went out of business. Another company bought them out, but for me to drive for them, would mean making less. This company will not offer any benefits like the previous company did. No health insurance is the worst cut as far as I'm concerned. This has been a steady decline up here, but I hope we have bottomed, and pray it doesn't get any worse.

Been doing all right so far. But in this business it can change in a heartbeat.

Roadhog, I remember Michigan back in the early 80's when people were leaving the state and heading for Texas, Houston mostly. Have not lived there in a while.

Don't forget inventory time too. a lot of businesses have to do the yearly inventory this time of year.

This has always been a slow time of year. There is freight to haul, but rates are lower than a few months ago. We seem to be doing fairly well, even with the lower rates. There are record numbers of owner operators turning in their trucks. That should help the situation by reducing capacity. There are still some who are trying to run their trucks for less than $1/mile. This time of year one needs to operate smarter to be successful. I expect some difficult economic times for our country. Trucking is one of the first to see a slow down. Much of what we haul revolves around construction and hard goods. When people have less money to spend, then the economy will slow down.

Re: RECESSION?? Can You tell.......................
 

actually,our business is up right now, to the point where I wish it would slow down a little

Re: RECESSION?? Can You tell.......................
 

Fredog

What company do work for?

crunch

Gman...are there any articles that you pulled this from or is it just your own thoughts pulled from talking to those you meet in the industry and on the road?

Re: RECESSION?? Can You tell.......................
 

I work for a small tanker company. ( 25 trucks) we haul mostly grease to animal feed mills and bio diesel plants, seems the colder it is, the more work we have, one reason is the animals eat more when it's cold.

i'm working for a construction/paving company and as long as the weather is decent (no rain) and the plants are open we have been busy. Seems like we were busier in 2007 than in 2006, but both years were good for us. I'm actually hoping that it rains a little monday because my truck is in the shop and i've been working on the crew for the past two weeks.

my boss also owns a dump company with about 20 tandems and about 20 dump wagons, they have been really slow since last year, that's why I went on the tanker, they are slow to the point that he dropped the insurance on all but 8 of the tandems and 4 of the dump wagons, not sure what the problem is there, construction is down, but it's still going, oh well, animals will always have to eat, so I guess the tanker job is secure, but I sure miss being home every night.

A couple of months ago, our Dear, Beloved President said that the nation's economy is "strong and healthy with a few storm clouds". This month, he's asking Congress for $145 Billion in "tax rebates" and "incentives for corporations" to JUMP-START the economy.

Oh, Dear Mr. President Bush... If our economy is strong and healthy.... Why do we need a JUMP-START?????

Because housing starts have stopped. Mortgage forclosures are at an all-time high. And, builders are offering 30% to 60% price cuts on "overstock" housing so they can get out from under the property tax burden. And a 17% inflation rate for 2007.

Also, American children are now being diagnosed with RICKETS, thought to have been stamped out more than a hundred years ago. Parents are faced with buying a gallon of milk or a gallon of gas. A gallon of milk will keep their kids healthy, but that gallon of gas is the difference between getting to work or missing work and losing their jobs.

That jump-start may last about 3 months, or it may simply fizzle. And whether you believe it or not, it all comes down to the cost of energy. No "COST OF LIVING RAISES". After all, FOOD and ENERGY do not figure into the cost of living or inflation.

Yes, we are in a recession. And, this one will be worse than any in many years. It may even go into a depression. We may well be looking at whole families going homeless, and that has not happened since the 1930's. Hunker down and dig in, folks. It's going to be a rocky ride. For too many years, we've allowed a group of foreign powers to regulate the cost of our energy, and that controls our economy.

Geomon, I have spoken with several people lately who have basically stated the same thing. I spoke with one friend from Nevada who was told by a clerk that there have been literally hundred's of owner operators turning in their plates in that one office alone. Anytime there are large fuel spikes and lower rates you will find owner operators losing their trucks. There is one guy I know who has already turned in one truck and will probably turn in another one. I don't know that it is in every part of the country, some will be hit harder than others. We still seem to be doing fairly well, but still need to fill a drivers seat. With me, it is more a matter of finding a good qualified driver rather than a lack of freight. I can usually come up with something that pays decent, even if I have to deadhead to a better freight area. I just try to stay out of the bad freight areas. I think the owner operators who are leased to carriers are suffering more than those of us who run our own authority. When you are leased to a carrier, you rely on them for your freight. If you run your own authority, you can get a load anywhere. We can negotiate better rates where someone who is leased to a carrier may not be able to do much negotiating. Some owner operators obligate themselves for large payments. When slow times come they cannot meet their obligations because they over committed on the payment and didn't put enough aside to see themselves through these slow times. A new owner operator should not have a payment over $1,000/month. In talking to another fleet owner I know, he thinks that an owner operator should keep his payment under $500/month. When you have a cheap payment, you can always double up and pay the truck off early. When things are slow, you should have been able to save enough to make payments during those times. It is much easier to make a $500 payment than $1,500 or more.

When business is slow, those with big payments tend to panic. They are so scared of sitting for a day to get a better rate that they are willing to take anything, going anywhere, for any rate offered to keep moving. That is the worst thing they can do, but I see it all the time. Most carriers don't realize that they control the rates. They think the shipper or broker controls rates. If the carrier or owner operator refuses to haul below a certain price, then he controls the rate. He needs to know what he rate he needs to haul freight. A shipper or broker is out of business unless they can move their products. The owner operator is out of business if he hauls freight less than his operating costs and a fair profit. In order to move those products the broker or shipper must find a truck to move it. These people will not pay more than they must to move a load. They make a profit on what they sell. Why should an owner operator not demand a rate that will guarantee him a fair profit after covering his operating expenses? If an owner operator gets a fair price and keeps his expenses low, then he will survive and make a decent profit. I spoke with another friend of mine a few days ago who is leased to a carrier. He told me that his fuel costs were running about 50% of what he is making. He is averaging about $1.30/mile for all miles. He is having financial difficulties. I have not yet convinced him that running a lot of miles doesn't necessarily translate into profit. I do think that I am making progress.

I'm afraid you may be right on.

I've been visiting a few finance/investment forums and a whole crapload of those folks have been comparing notes and crunching numbers the last couple months and I'm seeing a LOT of "We're in deep shit and .gov can't bail us out of this...." type posting going on.

And not a lot of argument to the contrary.

I know what you mean considering the cost of fuel has TRIPLED in 7 years let alone the cost of Insurance yet what has our great president done. Drained our treasury by going to war with a country that had nothing to do with the attacks of 9-11 also giving away all the surplus that he was given. Face facts people our Nations debt DOUBLED under DUBBA Bush and soon the bill will come due when it does say goodbye to the USA.

It is going to be interesting to watch, (in a perverse way) as the banks attempt to shore up their “shadow banking” activities. And the gov’t to tries to explain away the “cooked” numbers on inflation, personal income levels, jobs creation, etc. .
DaveP: You are very wise to learn from these financial forums. Learn as much as you can. It is very possible, depending on who you believe, that our entire banking system is under assault. For years now the banks and Wall Street have been trading “off balance sheet” derivatives, these are now in the TRILLIONS of dollars. It is a house of cards, founded on totally reckless lending practices, greed, and a huge amount of unregulated imagination.
Recession will most likely occur, jobs will be lost, the severity will depend on how fast and how much the gov’t is willing to spend to bail out the banks, Wall Street, and the money speculators to save our banking system from collapse, our economy from a depression similar to the 30’s, possibly even our way of life here. Depends on which “Chicken Little” we believe. I personally believe we are only seeing ½ of the iceberg that lies dead ahead. Pretty much anyway you look a it, the gov’t will again be mortgaging the future of our country far into the future, for the last 10 years of greed , totally reckless spending and poor trade agreements brought to us by our political leaders in Congress and the White House.

The gov't influences behavior through taxation and regulation.

Jobs have been flowing off shore, for many years.
Chickns look to be coming home to roost.

That sub-prime problem was not the problem that it was portrayed as. It is an attempt to stem the losses of big inverstors, the world over.

The derivatives - nobody understands the impact, there.
A lot of of it could be risk diversification, but again, nobody understands the full impact.

Ben B - the new fed chief, gave a speech a couple of days ago. I didn't hear it, but someone that did, said that he stuttered, stammered, hemmed and hawed, and basically had to be relieved in the middle of the speech.

Sounds to me like somebody is holding a gun on him, to do as he is told...

That would make a good thread:
"Do as your told!
IT's the LAW!"

If you think that gov't can bail us out, you have had too much cool aide.

There are a hand full of things that are rightly the function of gov't. Beyond those, the gov't can only get in the way.

It wasn't gov't that built this country to greatness.
IT will likely be gov't that sinks it, though.

You can thank a liberal, for current conditions.
Liberals are an enemy to We The People.

It is easy to blame the president for the current economic conditions. The truth of the matter a major recession has been coming for a number of years. We are seeing the result of gross mismanagement of public assets over a period of decades. Banks are merging to postpone bankruptcy. Regions and Amsouth recently merged. I went into a Regions bank the other day to cash a check written on their bank. They wanted to charge me $5.00 to cash the check since I didn't have an account. That tells me that they are either dishonest or in great financial difficulty. These banks have been allowed to merge again and again which is creating a monopoly and a dangerous business environment. It is bad when a small bank goes under, but a major disaster when one of the largest banks in the country goes bankrupt. Chase and Citibank are both in difficulty. Country Wide is the largest mortgage lender in the nation and was recently saved from bankruptcy by a merger. All this is only postponing the inevitable collapse unless the government bails them out.

Excessive government regulation and greed has encouraged many major companies to move manufacturing facilities abroad. Excess taxation has also encouraged these companies to move abroad. We continue to reelect lawyers to mismanage public funds and divert them for their own purposes. Blaming one party or individual is wrong and misguided. They are all part of the problem.

Rather than drilling for more oil in the U.S. and encouraging alternative sources of energy, we continue to rely on foreign sources to supply our energy needs. Our political leaders have allowed most of the major oil companies to merge creating a virtual monopoly of oil in this country. This country runs on energy. When those costs are out of control, then the entire economy suffers. We have no energy policy.

If you must place blame on someone then the one to blame most is the person in the mirror. There are those who continue to look for a government handout, both personal and business. This is supposed to be a capitalistic country. In reality we have been living under socialism for years. Capitalism allows people and businesses to fail. Government continues to bail out major companies which defeats one purpose of capitalism. It encourages mismanagement. People refuse to become involved in the political process by an ever increasing number.

If you want to see governments who are in deep financial difficulty and mismanage public funds, then look at those states who are selling off toll roads and others who are pushing for new toll roads on free public access roads. We don't need higher fuel taxes. Politicians need to stop stealing or mismanaging public funds, including fuel taxes and diverting them to other areas. These people keep spending more of our money and we continue to encourage them. My question is when is enough, enough? When are we going to stop demanding a handout and take responsibility for our own welfare? When are we going to demand that our leaders start cutting their spending and start reducing the size of government?

This tax rebate is nothing but a shell game. It will not solve the problem. Government has NEVER done anything efficiently. The best thing our government can do is NOTHING.

You could purchase fuel for $1.16 per gallon in 2001? Wow, that's absolutely amazing. :roll: You know what else is amazing? How easily people forget the skyrocketing fuel costs under the Clinton administration.

The other scary thing is that Candidate Clinton is advocating a freeze on the trouble spots of the economy, like a freeze on interest rates to prevent the poor helpless borrowers from having to pay any higher payments. Does anyone know what happened when President Carter froze the gasoline price? :roll:

This tax rebate plan is actually a shell game, but it does in fact work. An economy is not made up of a fixed amount of money, but in fact made up of how many times that money is used, the activity so to speak. An economy comes from the fact that each week people earn money, then they spend the money, allowing someone else to earn it the next week. When people get scared and hold onto that money for an extra day or two before spending it the economy slows down, and because that slows down the next people in the chain don't have as much to spend the next week. Think of it like this: In the ancient civilizations all the gold and valuables were kept in the palace, so the king was rich but the peasants lived in squallor, but allow the peasants to have a chance at owning that gold and you have an economy. The tax rebate will net the government more money in the end, because that $100 that people get will be spent at Walmart, where the clerk will be employed and taxes deducted from their paycheck, The clerk will spend that money at the grocery store, and the clerk there will have taxes deducted, and so on, Eventually the money returns in a circle. It works because people think it will work, so it actually does.

Rev I talking about before 9-11 and Dubba Bush went on his Rampage. In 2001 living in MN I could fill up my tank living in MN in the Twin Cities for right around 1.10-1.20 a gallon with out a problem. Now a celebrate when I can get gas for anything under 3.00 a gallon. Lets see here under Clinton I was getting gas normally for around 99 cents or so after buying it under Bushes dad for 1.40 a gallon now tell me Rev who raised prices.

It is not a liberal vs. conservative thing now, it is as said, total mismanagement of public funds by our government, both parties and every single member of Congress, and extremely imaginative banking and accounting rules invented by Wall Street investment firms. (which own the mortgage companies.) Initially allowed by Congress, with the urging of special interest groups, to protect the “people” but left unregulated with the urging of Wall Street. Look up in Wikopedia the definitions of Credit Default Swaps (CDS), and Credit Default Obligations (CDO) See if you can figure that one out. (Don’t feel bad if you cannot, apparently the new Fed Chairman, Berneke, couldn’t either, and had to go have a “refresher course”) The highly leveraged debt obligation instruments are held off the books. Neither a asset or liability. But if credit worthiness or default occurs a very real liability to someone.
The recent infusion of BILLIONS in capital into our banks and investment firms from China, Saudi Arabia, Dubai, etc., is a attempt to “shore up” the “off book” exposure of the banks and brokerage firms. All for a bigger share in our financial institutions. In effect the selling off of more USA assets to ISLAMIC foreign governments or COMMUNIST state backed companies.
Will the 150 BILLION money back deal help the economy? Slightly, for a very short period of time. Much depends on how much will go to the people, and how much is another example of “Corporate welfare.“ This money will be spent, and then spent again over and over , until it is TAXED out of existence. The money is then returned to the Gov’t via taxation, but the gov’t fails to calculate the possibility of savings. If people, fearing tough economic times, actually save any of the money, then the gov’t calculations of the economic benefits are incorrect and will fall far short of the expectations. Also, the fact that corporate America seeing the upcoming bad times, will raise their prices to grab more of the 150 BILLION giveaway. This will fuel INFLATION. Needing more cash infusions into the economy. But with less money coming into the gov’t coffers due to recesssionary pressures, and now inflation, the gov’t must raise taxes to make up the short fall to infuse back into the economy. So say “goodbye” to the Bush tax cut. Say “hello” to higher tax rates from the federal gov’t., state and local municipalities.

Your memory is failing you. According to this report, the average gas price in 2000, a full year earlier than 9/11 (and while Clinton was still in office, I might add), was $1.67 per gallon.

Really? Then why did Clinton dump the strategic oil reserves into the market while he was still in office? Just for the hell of it? Or was it due to the outcry over increased gas prices?

The oil companies and the refineries did. The president doesn't raise the cost of fuel. :roll:

Selective memory, I tell you. :roll:

As usual ironeagle2006 is again clueless....

Not a chance. I'm siding with Rev on this one. In '01 when the planes hit the towers, gas was over $2 a gallon and the big outcry was on how much gas would spike and price gouging would go on. I saw it on a few stations pushing $5 a gallon and Casey's actually had a government lawsuit filed against them because of it.

Gas was relatively cheap when Clinton took office, but it got more expensive the longer he was in office. I don't blame him for the rising gasoline prices any more than I blame Bush. It's a combination of refinery issues and the growing violence and unrest in the Middle East. That violence has been escalating for years...far longer than Bush has been in office. :roll:

Twilight were I lived at we got gas right up to the attacks for right at 1.10-1.20 a gallon in fact the customers screamed if it hit over 1.25-1.30 a gallon.

Big Diesel you call me clueless yet you are the one that all you do is attack people refuse to post anything constructive can you say TROLL anyone.

Rev the reason CLinton did what he did was simple called he was not in the Oil Companies Back Pockets and was actually looking out for the middle class instead of the Super Rich. Tell me this who got 99% of Bush and Regans tax cuts the Upper 1% and Big Businesses so they could ship the good paying jobs overseas and gut the middle class.

In Central Wisconsin, I was paying between $1.15 and $1.36 a gallon twenty years ago. It would go up, and then a month later it would go back down. I was driving 24 miles to work everyday, and another 24 miles back home again. But, each time it went up, it went higher than the time before, and when it came back down, it didn't come back down to it's previous level. It was doing that way back under Reagan and Ford.

Prior to OPEC, I was paying $0.17 to $0.24 a gallon. Ever since OPEC, it has started to climb, until recently when it has spiked in geometric proportions. It's been going on well before either Bush or Clinton, or Bush.

This month, Bush signed a law that will require auto makers to have an overall MPG average on all their vehicles of 35 miles per gallon, and I believe it is by the year 2020. If I'm right, by that time, at the present rate, the price at the pumps will be about $21 a gallon. Where is it coming from?

I would suggest that you go to a site called: WILLYOUJOINUS.COM (WILL YOU JOIN US) Read what the game plan is for reducing consumption. And, look at who is sponsoring the site. SHELL OIL. And, I wonder who is smiling all the way to the bank.

By the year 2020, Americans will become very inventive with horses, donkeys, and goats pulling their bicycles. But the folks on WILLYOUJOINUS almost sound like they are being brainwashed. They are having a severe time trying to envision that.

Ya know, I always hear about the Middle Class being gutted and tax cuts are always for the rich. However, I'm solidly middle class. My wife and I don't splurge, we do save, and we do OK. We aren't rich, by any means, but we are not hurting.

That said, I've done well under Bush I and Bush II and found things more difficult under Clinton, not just in taxes, but in everyday survival. Tax time, though, is a whole lot easier under Bush I and Bush II with substancial refunds every year. However, under Clinton, I received no refund and ended up paying on 6 out of his 8 years in office. THe two years I did get a refund, it wasn't enough to take my family out to dinner.

So tell me again how the tax cuts benefit the wealthy and gut the middle class. Tax cuts, when they are across the board, are going to benefit everybody the same...by percentage. A wealthy person making $10 million a year is obviously going to get a larger $$$ tax cut than someone making $50K a year, but the percentage is still going to be the same.

Ironeagle2006,

I only post constructive info for the individuals who can actually comprehend viable info.... unlike yourself and your merry band of short bus riders.......

Then this magical land you lived in was the exception, not the rule.

Are you really that delusional?

You're absolutely right. The ones who actually paid the majority of the taxes got the biggest amount of the tax cut.

ROFL

Twilight under Regan and Bush the 80% meal dedction was taken away from OTR truckers for expenses on the Road. Put it to you this way under Regan and Bush 1 my folks normally paid in simply because my father was an OTR trucker regardless of how much or little he made. Under Clinton that was restored were people that are effected by any and HOS regulations can deduct 80% of their meal espenses or the standard amount given them by the IRS. Under Bush 2 my parents every Year are back having to pay again into the IRS and my mother who is the only one that works dad is disabled blind in one eye and also lost a lung and some other issues former OTR driver 30 years. Now they get hit with the AMT regardless and have to pay here is the rub mom claims ZERO and Single on her W-4 and has an extra 40 a week taken out how in the HELL is she having to pay every year considering the first 32K of SS is tax free. They have one annuity Hers and her 401k and Pension that they have not touched yet they are getting slammed. With Clinton they were able to get ahead and get all those going and since Bush hit they have not been able to do anything at all.

I hate to provide accurate information.... But, Congress passed a Bill that repeals the AMT for 1 year.... And the economy that Slick Willie inherited was due to the programs in put in place by Congress under Reagan's and 41's presidency's..... Again you are clueless.... :lol:

Wow. The ignorance shown in this thread, as well as the selective memory, is astounding. I'm waiting for golfhobo to show up and claim Bush stole the election.

Can't we all just get along? :roll:

:twisted: :twisted: Hey, Rev!!

I RESEMBLE that remark!! :twisted: :twisted:

Lets then give Regan some credit then. LIKE ARMING OSAMA BIN LADEN IRAN IRAQ AND EVERY OTHER TERRIOST GROUP IN THE 80'S. Also being the first to cut and run when casulties got high anyone remember the Beruit Embassy Bombing were 245 Marines died in 1983 all he did was fire a few 16 inch shells into Lebanon and then pulled our troops out. Iraq hit the USS Strak in 1987 with an Exocet missle we did nothing about it. Hezbollah terrorists killed a Navy Diver in the TWA hijacking Nothing done. He showed we were a paper tiger and the terriorts groups saw that and got bolder.

I can't tell you what the exact price of fuel was at the time, but I remember voting for W.Bush because I was pi$$ed at the price of fuel and I thought he would do something to relieve it.
I think that's the year that I registered to vote, and it was to vote for Bush (and cheaper fuel)

I'm going to chalk that decision up to a learning experience. :lol:
(I still wouldn't want Gore though.)

Having said that, if you want cheap fuel use less of it, that's the only way to fix the problem. We only have ourselves to blame for high energy prices. (not that I don't think there's some unscrupulous behavior at play)A lot of Americans are gluttons.
We want big houses with open foyers and cathedral ceilings (that's where all the heat goes). Cost more to heat it and cool it.
We want big engines that have POWER be it in a car, truck or SUV. (I'm severely guilty of this one myself, however I blame my small.........never mind ) :)

As far as a recession, I think it's going to get ugly for a while. Too many people lived beyond their means for too long. Now it's time too pay.

I heard something the other day that really teed me off concerning fuel. I was listening to CNBC and the lady said if you think the slowing economy will have an impact on fuel prices you're wrong. Refiners are going to cut production to keep their profit margins up. :shock: Huh?????

What we need to do is build more refineries but the government doesn't want us to so the refiners are forced to revonvate or expand their current refineries. I live by Conoco Phillips formerly Shell Oil formerly Standard Oil and they have expanded and in Hartford (Illinois) it's Valero.