What trucking SEGMENT best in next 2-3 years?
 

OK, here's a question for the economists in the crowd . . . or drivers who have been at this a while and have seen the economy go up and down.

It seems to me that

Flat bedding pays best . . .
Then tankers . . . especially food . . .
Then reefers . . .
Then vans . . .

(Car hauling is in there but not sure where.)

What I get from that is that in a strong economy, flat bedding pays best (to feed the construction and manufacturing industries) but then food comes next.

So, question: If the economy does slow and housing construction continue slowing . . . would it be smarter to go into tankers and/or reefers?

Or is there enough business regardless, to always make flat bedding #1?

IMHO the most stable segment in trucking is reefers. People have to eat, they usually do not have to buy durable goods.

When the economy slows, every segment of trucking is affected one way or the other. Out of the categories you listed, reefer would likely be less affected since it deals mostly with food products (AKA: consumer staples). Ditto for the fuel-haulers and food-grade tankers. When the housing market slumps, skateboarders (flatbeds) generally take it on the chin more so than other sectors. Alot of time, the the flatbed guys start horning in on the dry-van guys freight to keep their trucks moving.

Last year at this time, the economy was booming at about a 5.5% clip. The problem now is that most fleets have too many drivers and too many trucks chasing too little freight. Thus, alot of guys are sitting around more waiting on loads.

That's another reason why I advise younger guys to get into LTL. Pretty much all of the LTL companies have a seniority board, so you're less likely to get canned and more likely to work once you get up there on the totem pole. As you start getting long in the tooth, you'll be on an old-man's gravy bid-run.

Heck if work does slow and\or I do happen to get laid off, I'd rather be kicked back at home collecting max unemployment than parked in some nasty-azz truckstop. Plus I can always go to work for my buddy off the books until things pick up.

not really a segment but more of a sub segment. trucks and trailers will always break, theirs gotta be someone to fix em. be a mechanic charge an outrageous hourly rate and laugh all the way to the bank.

Re: What trucking SEGMENT best in next 2-3 years?
 

Originally Posted by Frogman:
OK, here's a question for the economists in the crowd . . . or drivers who have been at this a while and have seen the economy go up and down.

It seems to me that

Flat bedding pays best . . .
Then tankers . . . especially food . . .
Then reefers . . .
Then vans . . .

(Car hauling is in there but not sure where.)

What I get from that is that in a strong economy, flat bedding pays best (to feed the construction and manufacturing industries) but then food comes next.

So, question: If the economy does slow and housing construction continue slowing . . . would it be smarter to go into tankers and/or reefers?

Or is there enough business regardless, to always make flat bedding #1?

For our purposes here I would throw Car Hauling in with flatbedding. Might as well throw in oversize/overweight as well.

As usual I'm going to agree with ColdFrosty, LTL is the best segment of trucking in terms of pay & home time.

If I had to choose between foodgrade tanks and reefers I'd take the tanker in an instant. Unless I got paid detention time to the tune of like $15/hr I would never deal with reefer.

LTL is nice if you don't have many bills to pay and you have some money saved up. That on-call mess is horrible I bet. I'm looking into some LTL companies myself though. That otr mess would probably mess me up mentally. OTR is last resort for me.

flatbed
 

I have never had trouble finding enough to do with flatbed. I think it's a very stable way to run.

Household goods are ppredicted to go down, despite this being one of the slowest seasons in the past 4-5 years.

Housing booms affect the bedbugger industry. The economy does NOT affect bedbugging. When jobs are scarce, people are moving to lower cost of living demographics. When the economy booms, people are buying big (New) houses that they often barely afford :lol:

Intermodal is going to increase. Based on what I learned in school, the general public does not know that China is going to be a superpower soon. Plus, our trade deficit with them is like 13% or like 13:1 ration of import/export. Expect stuff coming into the ports in unprecedented numbers in the next 2-10 years :)

As long as people eat meat, livestock hauling will remain strong and rise with population growth. I guess the same goes for refrigerated carriers, because, even if there is a wave of "vegetarianism" veggies will still need hauling!

Pretty much, trucking will be growing with the economy. Thats why politics is a subject we should all have in the back of our minds.

I agree with some of the others who mentioned reefers. Historically, reefers seem to be less affected by economic changes than other segments of the industry. Anything do do with food will be more stable and less volatile than other segments. Most economists projects the entire industry to be in a major growth spurt for the next decade or so.

Any time you can become more specialized and provide a service which others either don't or unwilling to do you should do better than most segments of the industry. Hauling cars is at the top of pay, but is very sensitive to economic changes. Flat bedding is very much reliant on the steel and construction industries. When building is down or car sales are off, then flatbed freight will be down. We will probably see the changes before other aspects of the industry. You are right about flats paying better than vans. Again, it gets back to specialization. Over-sized and over dimensional freight also pays better. There are specializations within certain segments of the industry. For instance, HHG has electronics, trade shows as well as household moving. Carhauling has auctions, POV's, new and exotic. Each of these segments may pay differently. Some segments require several years of experience before you will be allowed to work for some companies. You don't just walk in off the street and start hauling exotic cars.

There are more containers coming into the country. The pay has been lower than most other aspects of the industry. If the growth continues, the shortage should help increase rates. Pulling tankers tends to pay fairly well. The lower end of the pay scale tends to be vans. It is a matter of supply and demand.

I would not worry too much about which segment pays better or will grow more right now. Just find something you enjoy hauling and have a good time. We tend to excel at things we enjoy.