Quote:
Where did you read about "it"? Please describe what you claim to have read.
It has been many years since I read about this. I don't recall much about it other than the concept.
Making money in the stock market isn't rocket science. Those who make money trading do so by watching trends and taking advantage of those trends or cycles. Stocks have cycles. All of them have cycles. All it takes is a little money, a plan and patience. For everyone who makes money in the market someone will lose money. Those who lose money in the market usually do so by getting greedy. They don't follow those things which worked for them in the past. It is not random.
This whole paragraph demonstrates your ignorance. Tell the guys writing the automatic trading algorithms that it's not rocket science. How many Nobel laureates did Long Term Capital have on their Board of Directors? Read "The (Mis)Behavior of Markets" by Benoit Mandelbrot and then make the above statement. Outliers exist and they will frock up every distribution they can. Markets, and indeed the universe as we know it, may well be fractal in nature.
I have made and lost a lot of money in the market. Like I said, it isn't all that complicated. You watch trends and invest accordingly. Some people make money by trying to make it complicated. Granted, there are events, such as a depression, which can mix things up a bit, but money can and will continue to be made in the market regardless of world events. There are those who will make money with this down economy just as they did during the Great Depression of 1929. When I lost money in the market it is because I got greedy and threw what was working out the window. Most people lose money in the market when they get greedy. I have always lost money when I listened to a broker, the so called professional. It seems to me as though you put too much faith in what others write.
What some people call luck is preparation. You can get "lucky" if you are prepared. You prepare for success. When opportunities come along you are prepared and get "lucky." People who fail, usually do so by not preparing. Again, it isn't random. It has nothing to do with genetics. You either prepare for success of failure. It is a choice. I am not sure what good it would do for me to read a book about random success. If I am to be successful or fail then there is nothing that I can to to effect the outcome since everything is random.
CAN YOU PLEASE READ THE BOOK BEFORE YOU START TO COMMENT ON IT?
In one of his books Taleb talks about someone who did a study of successful entrepreneurs and decided that the largest quality they had in common was a willingness to take risks and thus decided that to be successful a person needed that ability. Taleb pointed out that if they had done a study of FAILED entrepreneurs they probably would have found an equal, if not greater, willingness. Sometimes the very qualities that get you to a certain point in life keep you from going any further.
I have only been commenting on what you have written. I don't need to read a book to comment on your words. I do agree that to be successful you need to take risks. You will never be successful unless you are willing to take a risk. I believe the difference is in the type of risk one is willing to take. Those who succeed are single minded and stay focused on their goal. They don't give up. When they have a setback they move on or take a different direction. Those who fail give up and don't even try again.
We all have setbacks in our life. Einstein, Edison and others had many setbacks over their lifetime. Some would have called them failures. A failure would have given up. They learned by their failures and persevered. That was not random
[I]What does that statement have to do with anything we are discussing here? What I read into it is that you will only get lucky if you keep gambling. I agree that randomness can't strike you if you quit. That's why I keep going, someday I will get another opportunity. I will also say that people like Einstein and Edison appear to pretty randomly distributed..[/QUOTE
I never said anything about gambling. If you believe that random events control your success or failure without any contribution from you then you would not continue to try. I was not talking about Einstein and Edison personally, only their achievements. They succeeded because they refused to give up. It had nothing to do with randomness. Again, you assume that I am commenting on the book itself. I am only commenting on your statements about the book.Originally Posted by GMAN
I have no need to be frightened about ideas. As I stated earlier, this is not new. I read about it several decades ago. Feel free to challege any of my ideas or assumptions.Where did you read about "it"? Please describe what you claim to have read.
It has been many years since I read about this. I don't recall much about it other than the concept.
Making money in the stock market isn't rocket science. Those who make money trading do so by watching trends and taking advantage of those trends or cycles. Stocks have cycles. All of them have cycles. All it takes is a little money, a plan and patience. For everyone who makes money in the market someone will lose money. Those who lose money in the market usually do so by getting greedy. They don't follow those things which worked for them in the past. It is not random.
This whole paragraph demonstrates your ignorance. Tell the guys writing the automatic trading algorithms that it's not rocket science. How many Nobel laureates did Long Term Capital have on their Board of Directors? Read "The (Mis)Behavior of Markets" by Benoit Mandelbrot and then make the above statement. Outliers exist and they will frock up every distribution they can. Markets, and indeed the universe as we know it, may well be fractal in nature.
I have made and lost a lot of money in the market. Like I said, it isn't all that complicated. You watch trends and invest accordingly. Some people make money by trying to make it complicated. Granted, there are events, such as a depression, which can mix things up a bit, but money can and will continue to be made in the market regardless of world events. There are those who will make money with this down economy just as they did during the Great Depression of 1929. When I lost money in the market it is because I got greedy and threw what was working out the window. Most people lose money in the market when they get greedy. I have always lost money when I listened to a broker, the so called professional. It seems to me as though you put too much faith in what others write.
What some people call luck is preparation. You can get "lucky" if you are prepared. You prepare for success. When opportunities come along you are prepared and get "lucky." People who fail, usually do so by not preparing. Again, it isn't random. It has nothing to do with genetics. You either prepare for success of failure. It is a choice. I am not sure what good it would do for me to read a book about random success. If I am to be successful or fail then there is nothing that I can to to effect the outcome since everything is random.
CAN YOU PLEASE READ THE BOOK BEFORE YOU START TO COMMENT ON IT?
In one of his books Taleb talks about someone who did a study of successful entrepreneurs and decided that the largest quality they had in common was a willingness to take risks and thus decided that to be successful a person needed that ability. Taleb pointed out that if they had done a study of FAILED entrepreneurs they probably would have found an equal, if not greater, willingness. Sometimes the very qualities that get you to a certain point in life keep you from going any further.
I have only been commenting on what you have written. I don't need to read a book to comment on your words. I do agree that to be successful you need to take risks. You will never be successful unless you are willing to take a risk. I believe the difference is in the type of risk one is willing to take. Those who succeed are single minded and stay focused on their goal. They don't give up. When they have a setback they move on or take a different direction. Those who fail give up and don't even try again.
We all have setbacks in our life. Einstein, Edison and others had many setbacks over their lifetime. Some would have called them failures. A failure would have given up. They learned by their failures and persevered. That was not random
[I]What does that statement have to do with anything we are discussing here? What I read into it is that you will only get lucky if you keep gambling. I agree that randomness can't strike you if you quit. That's why I keep going, someday I will get another opportunity. I will also say that people like Einstein and Edison appear to pretty randomly distributed..[/QUOTE