Higher Rates in 2011
 

Trucking rates forecast to roll higher - USATODAY.com

So what does everyone think??

Yep, they are definitely going higher. I just missed a stepdeck load paying $1.38 per mile GROSS from Alberta Canada to Michigan, USA. 1,880 miles; machinery; 33,000 lbs. Just my luck!

I expect the rates to go much higher as the demand for drivers goes way up, due to all the regulations and hours changes they are trying to implement.

However don't expect to see much of it, the companies will hold down the driver/owner pay as low as they can, as they always have.

With the advent of EOBRS and the hours changes they will pretty much FORCE any independents out, therefore eliminating the competition from under bidding the large fleets.

Whatever the driver/owner can salvage from the increase rates will go in the fuel tank, or into the cost of a compliant truck

There will be NOTHING to entice ANYONE into a career in trucking once all the regulations are in place, other than $$$$, and if history shows anything, ( I've been in trucking since 73) the trucking industry has NEVER EVER addressed the issue of pay, they THINK we are over paid now.............LOL

To give an example, I have an old road atlas here with a JB Hunt add in it from 1982, and it says top pay 28 CPM..........how much more is it today, some 30 years later?

How will EOBR force independents out of business?

I believe rates are result of supply and demand forces in the market. They are not dictated by large carriers or even brokers. We should all hope nobody wants a career in trucking. CAN YOU SAY NAME YOUR PRICE?

Supply and demand WILL definitly drive up the rates, like I said, there will be a real driver shortage this time, especially when the new heath rules come into play, If you think CSA will thin the herd, the health rules will REALLY thin out the field, AND make it harder to get in a truck.


Name your price?....LOL.....Been hearing that for years, (since 73 actually)..........you are dreaming if you think that you will ever be able to do that, especially with only a few large carriers holding the cards

As far as forcing indies out of buisness, I should have said most will voluntarily shut down because they don't agree with the rules, or don't want to play the game

I read an article that I thought was interesting around the beginning of the recession. They broke jobs that paid pretty well into 5 categories or requirements. 1 was special skills or abilities like a star athlete, another was special training like a doctor and so on. Category 5 was jobs that noone in their right mind wants. They didn't mention trucking but that's what I was thinking. Who in their right mind would want to live part of their lives in a truck with all the hours of boredom while destroying their bodies and putting up with tremendous risk should they be in an accident?

I just hope I'm not overestimating people. :)

One thing I'm wondering about and maybe I'm missing something is why does everyone seem to think eobrs are going to be bad for o/os? Won't they help with supply and demand by helping to keep people from trying to become o/os? According to this thread the price doesn't seem very high:

http://www.classadrivers.com/forum/o...oing-eobr.html

Of course there's the issue of not being able to drive as many hours with new hos rules and eobrs to enforce them. But again, if that helps to keep the new blood out it might put upward pressure on prices.

According to a recent article in the Canadian media, Canadian exports of lumber and construction materials might jump through the roof as Japan is starting to rebuild its economy after the earthquake and tsunamis. I think flatbed truckers will benefit too and rates might go up.

I thinking the heavy equipment coming out of the ports might dry up because most of this stuff is made in Japan and it won't be getting to our shores.

Your free market theory only works if there are no external forces acting on the market. We will continue to see the trucking companies lobbying for looser immigration laws so they can import lower paid drivers from other countries.....and let's not forget the Mexican trucks hauling freight for discounted rates.

Mexican Canadian what's the difference?

As an indepedent I do name my own price everyday. If the rate is not profitable for me with my costs then I pass on the load. I don't care what large carriers or brokers offer.

1) CSA2010 will help thin out the driver and carrier population - just a matter of when.
2) Improving economy will help thin out the driver population because "X" percentage of drivers will gladly leave the truck and head back to the job they had before they "had to" drive for a living.
3) (potential) Shortage of trucks = many loads will not be picked up / delivered as needed. As loads become more important ("hot") the rates go up.

Add all three together and the recipe for higher rates are there - IF it happens, it's just a matter of when - not if - - - Just my opinion of course.

And it is a fairly accurate opinion.....in my opinion.

Because they won't let you manage your time the way you need to, for me it isn't about driving time, most of my runs average 500 miles or less one way, I have never looked at my watch while eating dinner or anything else I stop to do, I'm not going to start now.

Not everyone can drop and hook, not everyone wants to take a shower at night, or eat fast food, or not eat at all, as far as supply and demand, it will definitly thin out the herd.

EOBRS will put more trucks on the road, and more trucks, more accidents/incidents, it isn't about safety, never is or will be.

Big carriers admit "it will level the playing field"....So naming your price won't work unless you can deliver better than the large carrier can, its all about price now anyway, service no longer matters

That article says rates to go up 5%, so subtract 2.5% for inflation, and then the price of fuel, ya got nuthin, pennies if your lucky.

As far as naming your price, yes you can, getting it is the other story, nobody ever talks about how much they actually got.

Here's the scenario: Your 2 hours from home on Friday afternoon, because of a traffic accident and road closure/detour you are out of hours, it is your son's last little league game of the season, and you promised him you would make it, your EOBR says you are out of time, you MUST take a break............what do you do?

Me? I'd keep my foot right where it is and go home, don't even have to think about it.

How about the rest of you?

As long as I'm wide awake. I'm headed to the house!

Takin' the truck to the ballgame, officer!

Really? Aren't there specific rules for what can be considered personal use. I know you can't get away with that in Canada.

Big difference LOL.

CDN dollar = $1.03
US peso = $1.00
Mexican peso = $.08 + PLUS CHEAP FUEL

I wasn't implying that you could get away with that as an excuse to go over hours but they aren't likely to check every truck every day. I cannot remember the last time I had my logs checked. Last FMCSA audit was 2005! I'd take the chance. Surely not everyone thinks safe and legal are the same thing. Besides you can just slip NY DOT cops a couple bucks to look the other way like the Canadian carriers were doing until the just got busted.(ha ha look who got caught cheating)
As for Mexican Canadian being American makes me think you all are just visiting. Although the Mexicans working the dairy farms in western NY never seem to go home.

LOL. Taking the truck to a ball game? What else could you possibly have been implying?

Last week for me. We've had 23 inspections in the last 24 months.

Yeah, I know about how the DOT cop was extorting money from the Canadian companies, but he was extorting...they weren't bribing.

Not really sure what this is about, but my point was whenever rates get too high the government will "inject liquidity" into the free market. In this case, the liquidity takes the form of adding drivers....Mexican drivers that can work for pennies on the dollar.

So, no it's not as simple as supply an

US peso? Is this Ice Road Rick?

My point about Mexican Canadian had nothing to do with money. Just people.

Increase in demand is an increase in demand. How can it not be good for us? The trucking industry has a 120% turnover and according to the BOLS a large number of drivers are going to be retiring soon creating more demand. The next generation doesn't want to run the long hauls the way the old generation did. I'm not knowledgeable enough to make predictions but I'd say we're in for a change. I don't think truckers like change much, but maybe change isn't necessarily a bad thing.

I've never seen that turnover rate fully explained, but it's obviously exaggerated. No way companies turn over their entire driver pool every 9 months. It isn't possible.

As far as the increase in demand being bad...well that might mean less experienced drivers, more accidents and more laws and more inspections.

Hence greater focus on driver retention. Better money, better treatment, better working conditions. I can't imagine anyone wanting less demand for drivers.

I have no idea what the future brings, but rates are up that's for sure right now. I already have EOBR's in the truck now in the form of the GPS system I use. I don't use electronic logs though (running 14 trucks) but I can have them turned on. If they are mandated, imagine companies with 100 trucks having to install them? They are not cheap. If and that's a big if the smaller guy can hang in there, there is no competetion between us and the big companies. The ones that have their own brokerages are so inefficient it isn't even funny. Even KTI out of Georgia, which probably only has a couple of hundred trucks are so disorganized it isn't even funny. You go to pick up a load and one of the company trucks already did it. Just signed up with Knight Brokerage and did 3 loads and that's enough of them.

There is no way they can compete on service, no way. And really I don't understand why they can't give better service. I myself can let a customer track their load via the GPS program up to the minute. But the big companies are full of employees and we all know what that means. I finally had to hire an assistant and I went through 3 girls in one month. A bunch of lunatics out there. Finally got a good one though. I've said it before though, this is one brutal business; I hate it really. However my accountant did my taxes and he told me I better learn to like it as I'm not going to go get a job making what I make now. Of course one driver could wipe out everything, that's why I wish I were in a business that I can shut the doors at 5PM and not worry about a phone call.

Up to 14 trucks now? wow.

I know. Holy crap. Thats impressive to watch.

Rising fuel costs are sucking up anything higher rates are bringing in. Great for the A-rabs thoug.