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-   -   Price of a barrel of oil $44 today! (https://www.classadrivers.com/forum/owner-operators-forums/36372-price-barrel-oil-%2444-today.html)

Orangetxguy 12-07-2008 03:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jackrabbit379 (Post 427751)
I remember hearing that Exxon Mobile made such-n-such hundred billion in 3 months, this summer?

First 3 quarters of 2008, approximately $37 Billion and change. $49 billion and change if you include the last quarter of 2007, to make a full cycle year.

Exxon breaks record for profit, yet again - Oct. 30, 2008

This was a story updated yesterday;
Oil speculation is rampant, even as gas prices fall - Dec. 1, 2008

Oil speculation: It's back

There's more of it today than there ever was this summer. And this time around, it really is making oil more expensive.

Quote:

By Jon Birger, senior writer
Last Updated: December 5, 2008: 1:55 PM ET

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- With oil now at $50 a barrel, you no longer hear Congress complaining about oil speculators. The irony is there's probably more real speculation going on today than there ever was back in June and July.
I'm talking about the type of speculation that involves hoarding oil today so it can be sold for more down the road. Today's speculators are actually buying oil. They're not merely flipping futures contracts without taking delivery - which is what hedge funds and commodities index funds were doing when they were in the crosshairs of Congress this summer. As I've argued before, investors who trade futures but never take delivery of actual oil can't have a material impact on oil prices because their trading affects neither supply nor demand.
What's different now is the structure of the futures market, which is giving big investors an incentive to buy and hold huge sums of crude. Specifically, the November 2009 price of oil is considerably higher ($12 a barrel higher, to be precise) than the spot price - a scenario futures traders call a "contango" market. (The opposite scenario - spot prices higher than futures prices - is known as "backwardation.")
"The steepening of the contango has opened up carry-trade arbitrage opportunities that are slow to be closed due to constrained credit conditions," Goldman Sachs wrote in a recent research report. Translation: this is a great time for investors to be hoarding oil.
Today's market is giving Goldman clients and other well-heeled investors an opportunity to buy oil in the spot market for $50 a barrel, sell it forward in the futures market for $62, and then pocket the $12-a-barrel difference, less storage costs.
This type of oil investing was quite popular in 2005 and 2006 when, like today, the price of oil one year out was much higher than the spot price. Back then, contango trades were so popular that one of Morgan Stanley's top energy traders, Olav Refvik, leased so much oil storage that he earned the nickname "the King of New York Harbor."
There's no question the investing strategies pursued by Refvik and others were pushing up oil prices. By putting large sums of oil into storage, they reduced the supply available to consumers. By 2007, however, the gap between spot prices and futures vanished, and so did the opportunity to profit from that difference. And the amount of oil held in inventory began to fall.
Nevertheless, Congress needed a scapegoat for rising oil prices and an easy target proved to be hedge funds and other investors dabbling in oil futures. But these pseudo-speculators were simply making a bet on the direction of prices; they weren't driving them. Their gains (or losses) came out of the hides of the investors or airlines or oil companies on the other sides of their trades, not the oil-consuming public. Moreover, a lot of commodities hedge funds were actually making the wrong bets: According to Merrill Lynch, the average commodities hedge fund had a negative trailing 12-month return through June.
Unlike futures flippers, contango traders really do impact oil prices, yet they're getting a free pass. According to the U.S. Energy Information Agency, domestic oil inventories have risen 9% since oil prices peaked in early July. While some of that is attributable to the weak economy and slack energy demand, gasoline consumption declined only 5% over the same period and gasoline inventories have risen only 4%. (If you're wondering why contango traders would target crude oil but not gasoline, vaporization issues make gasoline harder to store.)
Demand for oil storage is so keen today that some big investors who can't secure storage on land have resorted to leasing supertankers and using them as floating oil tanks. For example, the U.S. oil trading firm Koch Supply & Trading recently leased the 2-million-barrel-capacity Dubai Titan, a Koch spokesperson confirms, the third supertanker Koch has leased this year.
It's hard to quantify exactly much lower gas prices might be were it not for the current speculation. In the United States alone, crude oil inventories have increased by 27 million barrels since early July, the equivalent of about 200,000 barrels a day being pulled off the market. Based on the estimates I've seen, a 200,000 barrel-a-day decrease in supply could raise gasoline prices by anywhere from 20 to 40 cents a gallon.
For the average consumer, that's real money. But I bet you a barrel or two that actual oil investors like Koch never get targeted by Congress the same way the hedge funds and index funds did this past summer.

After all, who needs a scapegoat when gas is $1.90 a gallon? http://i.cnn.net/money/images/bug.gif First Published: December 1, 2008: 9:22 AM ET


Anybody wanna bet on when the first refineries start blowing up? Their going to need some excuse to leverage gas prices back up.......just like the old days.

Bug 12-07-2008 04:10 AM

The Price of fuel at 44 dollars a barrel still isnt cheap enough as someone said in another post they would like to see fuel at 70 cents a gallon. Would be nice but im not holding my breath

RostyC 12-07-2008 12:06 PM

The thing about Exxon and the other companies like that though is that they work on a percentage and if I recall I think it's a 6 to 10 percent profit margin. So when crude is high they made a boat load of money but now they're not making as much. I thought it was wrong for Hillary and Obama to single them out earlier in the race for POTUS and want to go after "windfall profits" which still hasn't been defined that I can recall. The real problem was investors were flocking to oil futures to try to make money when other things were showing signs of weakness and it got way out of hand.

I'm starting to think maybe oil shouldn't be on the market at all so it can't be manipulated like that again, but I'm not sure what the downside of that theory would be, meaning what problems it might cause in the future.

What were seeing now reminds me of an article I read a while back that basically said you can not manipulate supply and demand because if you do, yes you will make big money for a while but when the pendulum swings back the other way it can put you out of business.

After reading the article that Tom posted I'm convinced this recession will not last long, only because these guys are never right. They said (one of the big investment banks that is) oil was going to 200 by Christmas? Hell even I new they were wrong about that, I could see the demand dropping in the reports plus my demand was dropping cause I wasn't driving that much.

Personally, I think they were trying to manipulate the market so they could make as much as they could because of the bad mortgages they had, which they really didn't know the exact number if you guys get what I'm trying to say.

GMAN 12-07-2008 01:46 PM

I don't think the world's economy can handle $200/barrel oil. At this point I am not sure that they can handle $100/barrel oil. I hope these speculators lose their shirts. This time I hope the government doesn't bail them out.

RostyC 12-07-2008 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GMAN (Post 427796)
I don't think the world's economy can handle $200/barrel oil. At this point I am not sure that they can handle $100/barrel oil. I hope these speculators lose their shirts. This time I hope the government doesn't bail them out.

Absolutely not, and I agree 100$ barrel oil is too high for strong growth as well. This whole energy thing really gets under my skin and here's why. We need oil for energy but then we're told it damaging the earth and we should stop using oil, coal etc. To simplify the way I see it I'll post it like this.

We need oil + it's bad for the earth = money to made on both sides while the lemmings believe all this propaganda. ;)

GMAN, now your a man of experience compared to me at 38 but here's the way I feel and you tell me if you see more now a days than you used to too, but it's like state, local and fed government along with corporations don't even try to hide the fact that there f*cking you anymore, it's just right out in the open and you still can't do anything about it.

A couple of examples, I went to get my TWIC card because sometimes I'll need to go into the ports here in Baltimore. The so called "office" that I went to looked liked a mash hospital with curtains for walls and the first thing out of the girls mouth was "do you have the 132.50 ? and how are you paying? make check payable to Lockheed Martin." Now why does Lockheed Martin get my money I thought?

Another one was here in Baltimore with politics. When Earlich (R) was Governor he wanted slots and O'Malley (D) who was mayor of Baltimore opposed it, said it was terrible for Maryland. As soon as O'Malley won the Governors seat he wanted slots. WTH man?

I'm at the point where I am getting discouraged of voting anymore.

GMAN 12-07-2008 02:55 PM

There are a lot of things our governments are doing which are not in the best interest of the people it is supposed to represent. There is absolutely NO reason to force those of us who do business in these ports and are U.S. citizens to have to spend over $100 for a TWIC card. I have a commercial drivers license and have had one for over 35 years. I have been on some of the most military installations in this nation, yet I am told that I need to have a background check to pick up or deliver machinery to the ports. I am also told that although I have had a hazmat endorsement ever since they came out with them that I must now go through another background check and give them over $90. Lockheed Martin and other companies are in bed with the federal government. I believe it is Lockheed Martin who operates all of the traffic cameras we see going up across the country. Frankly, I am not sure it is actually legal for a private enterprise to decide that I ran a traffic light or traveled too fast. It just goes to show you that if you have enough money or can show the government how you can give them a cash cow you can do well. That is what is happening in this country. Our elected officials have sold this country out to the highest bidder. It is no wonder that people are mad and some are not even voting. We need to go back to a constitutional government. We would only need a fraction of the government we now employ. The government has gotten to the point where we work for the government, not the other way around. The government has gotten so bloated and there are so many companies and individuals who profit from big government I don't know if citizens will ever get control of our government again. We may actually see another revolution in this country. Government doesn't remember history. Free citizens will eventually rebel against an oppressive government and high taxes. The hazmat check is nothing short of a tax as is the TWIC. These background checks could easily be done at the time we renew our CDL's without all the associated costs. The government is very generous in that they will allow a discount on the TWIC if you have a hazmat background check after 2005. Georgia used to fingerprint CDL holders every time you renewed your license. They no longer require fingerprints. In order to get a hazmat endorsement you must be fingerprinted and have the background check. There are only a few places where you can get fingerprinted and those are handled by private companies. It will take at least 1/2 a day to make the trip to get fingerprints taken. We need to go to these private locations rather than the local sheriff or MVR office. I suppose local law enforcement can no longer fingerprint people. I wonder if they can still fingerprint those who want a carry permit?

If it wasn't profitable the government would not be doing these programs. Oh, I forgot, it is about security. :roll: Some shippers who ship through these ports are now requiring drivers who pick up from them to have a TWIC card to enter their property. I spoke with woman the other day who's brother works for the Coast Guard. She told me that it is a $1,500 fine to any company who allows a driver on their property who doesn't have a TWIC if they go to the ports once the requirement goes into effect. I had a driver who delivered to Portsmouth the other day and he was told that he would not be allowed in the port after January 1 without a TWIC. Whether we like it or not, it looks as though we will be forced to pay the extortion money for the TWIC. It just makes you feel warm and fuzzy to know our government is looking out for us. :pissedoff:

Try not to get too discouraged. I think one thing we could do is to vote whomever is in office out. Give them one or two terms and then send them back home. We could also start calling and writing our representatives to express our opinions. It can make a difference. Those who benefit the most from government programs are the ones who continue to vote in those who give them the most money. We need to stop that practice. It is apathy that has allowed our government to get to this point. It the government that is the most responsible for so many companies moving operations abroad. Over taxation and over regulation has sent them abroad to more friendly governments. Imagine what industry must spend each year to comply with EPA and other rules that we must comply. And keep in mind that if our constitution was followed an income tax would never have been introduced in this country. Some feel that it is still not legal for the government to tax our income. It is a time to get MORE involved rather than staying out of the voting booth. Citizens need to be heard.

The government make money on both ends when it comes to oil and the environment. Most people still believe in global warming. Now we are told that we are heading toward another ice age. They can't make up their minds. In any case, it is costing industry and citizens billions of dollars to comply with laws and rules that were implemented using false or unproven science. I think they must have a test you must take when applying for a job with the government. If you show common sense you cannot work for the government.

asdfghjkl 12-07-2008 03:50 PM

I agree 100% with what GMAN said. Government has gotten out of touch with their purpose, TO SERVE THE PEOPLE. I believe part of the problem is that Congress is made up mostly of people looking for long term jobs with the government rather than people interested in serving the country. They serve with a focus on getting elected for another term rather than doing what they ought to be doing. Case in point Obama selects his competition to fill cabinet positions. By keeping his enemies close they are less likely to oppose his ideas or run against him in 2012. Does anyone really believe he and Mrs. Clinton will get along well enough to show a great United States to the rest of the world? Is Bill Richardson in anyway qualified to lead the Commerce Dept? I highly doubt he knows squat about jobs and the economy having been a politician (aka a professional liar) for quite a long while.

The war on TERROR is no longer affecting oil markets because W is a lame duck. He cannot ratchet up the rhetoric to scare traders into thinking that there is a shortage of oil. We've heard about oil running out for thirty years but it hasn't. The truth is that so called experts merely guess on limited knowledge. Orangetxguy hit the nail on the head about prices falling then stabilizing based on actual demand rather than speculation.

Red Clay Rambler 12-07-2008 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by asdfghjkl (Post 427812)
He cannot ratchet up the rhetoric to scare traders into thinking that there is a shortage of oil.

I don't recall W. being the one that is trying to scare us into thinking there is an oil shortage. I do recall many Libs doing that.

asdfghjkl 12-07-2008 07:15 PM

Maybe you were on vacation over the summer when W. escalated the conflict between Israel and Iran and the price of oil surged a single day record of $10.75 a barrel. Their conflict really did not affect oil supplies. Bush however took the opportunity to describe the effects of an Iranian naval blockade on the world supply of oil coming out of the Stait of Hormuz. Recall the pictures on all of the tv networks of the Iranian ski boats pestering our battleships. All sending the price higher and higher due to the geopolitical instability and ensuing panic of how we could not survive without middle east oil.

BigDiesel 12-07-2008 07:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by asdfghjkl (Post 427822)
Maybe you were on vacation over the summer when W. escalated the conflict between Israel and Iran and the price of oil surged a single day record of $10.75 a barrel. Their conflict really did not affect oil supplies. Bush however took the opportunity to describe the effects of an Iranian naval blockade on the world supply of oil coming out of the Stait of Hormuz. Recall the pictures on all of the tv networks of the Iranian ski boats pestering our battleships. All sending the price higher and higher due to the geopolitical instability and ensuing panic of how we could not survive without middle east oil.


:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:


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