Greece
 

Ever since the start of "The Great Recession", I've been noticing that oil prices have been where people "put there money where their mouth is" about our economic future. When things are looking up, oil is sitting there at over $105 a barrel, after some bad news, oil gets driven down into the $80s.

Lately I've been watching this:

Two Year Government Bond Acting as Benchmark Greece (GGGB2YR:IND) Index Performance - Bloomberg

Holy omgRweallfcked Batman! (the % stuff is how much it went up or down today, the number after "value" is the current interest rate)


Got your pantry stocked with goodies?

? Whats does a greek government bond have to do with our economy? Plus i wouldnt use oil trading as an indicator since the deregulation of commodities markets.

It's all dominos. French, Italian, Spanish and German banks are heavily into Greece and if Greece tumbles they all get hurt. Our banking system is interconnected with Europe so we take the hit too. They say it might play out just like Lehman Brothers in 2008 but maybe a little worse. There we just had a wall street bank/brokerage house go under, here it's a minor country's bonds/credit/government going kaput.

I read a really sad story today. If Greece goes under and has to withdraw from the EU, they'll be printing drachmas and nobody will want them. They run a huge trade deficit, including importing 70% of their energy. Winter is coming. What a humanitarian crisis that would be if noone accepts their drachmas for fuel (or food!).

Edit: Since they're on the Mediterranean I guess winter coming wouldn't be that big of deal. :) They'll still need fuel and food though.

I would suggest you keep one eye peeled on the value of the US Dollar. Last year, there were 4 countries that attended a secret meeting about currency. The USA did not attend, nor were we invited.

For the last fifty some odd years, the US Dollar has been the "WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY". That means that countries all over the world used the US Dollar for international dealings. Oil is traded in US Dollars. Well, Japan, China, France, and one more met to discuss replacing the US Dollar. If we lose the status of being the World Reserve Currency, the value of the Dollar will really go down. The bottom will drop out. You'll see triple-digit inflation. It will make the 30s look like a walk in the park.

Now, the problem is that the more money we print, the less the value of each Dollar. And, Berneke is printing more and more. The farther the US Dollar goes down, the more value other countries lose with their reserve currency. Not much different than the stock market. Stock goes down, get rid of it. And, the more that get rid of it, the more the value goes down. The credit rating of the USA might not sound like much, but it is another reason to get rid of the US Dollar.

You could be looking at some very hard times ahead. And, for all of the people that are selling off gold, it would be one way to hold a "hedge" while the dollar drops. But, actually those that invest in silver stand to do far better, dollar for dollar. Gold stands to go up 200% to 300%. But, silver stands to go up as much as 800%. It might be cheaper, but it's a better bet.

And, if all this happens, jobs????? Or "jobless"... You ain't seen nothin' yet.

So, keep a very close eye on the value of the Dollar.

Omg chill out bro! It doesnt matter what wall street does, it does not directly impact our lives, neither does the value of the dollar. Unless you like to buy foreign goods,well then you made that choice...if the bottom falls out, then the big banks will all fail, we will be free from their thieving and own our homes. If we cannot buy foreign goods anymore cuz the dollars is worth nothing, so what? We do nt really need all the foreign oil, poisoned chinese ****! grow locally, produce locally and if u cant do it yourself in your area, trade with other areas in the vicinity that can and made biofuels to power engines if you do not have oil. Maybe its for the better, i dont like buying oranges from california in florida anyway, its sick.

[QUOTE=One;502938]Omg chill out bro! It doesnt matter what wall street does, it does not directly impact our lives, neither does the value of the dollar.
if the bottom falls out, then the big banks will all fail, we will be free from their thieving and own our homes. QUOTE]

What planet do you live on? Even if you don't have a 401K or any other investment, Wall street still has an effect! Ever think about people that do have money invested? What happens when things are good and it goes up? They spend money and buy stuff, not to mention pay taxes on it and support all the poor people. What do you think happens when the market crashes? Think all those "rich" people still spend? No they keep on driveing trucks and makeing widgits or become one of the jobless poor.
You want the bank out of your life? Pay off your house and don't wait for big brother or someone else to do it for you! ( you'll feel better about yourself too)

I cought part of a related story and I think they said Germany was thinking about pulling out of the EU. most people here will say so what, no biggie. Problem is they (Germany) is about the only ones that have any money. They've allready loaned Greece a ton that they may never see again.

Wow! Up 11% just this morning!

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I guess Greece saying elected officials will go a month without pay and enacting an emergency property tax (about $700yr extra for a 1000 sq' house) and claiming they have enough cash to last until Oct isn't convincing anyone.

Oops, that was so half hour ago.
Now it's up 11.6%

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Spaghetti. I'm thinking fill the cupboards with spaghetti and cheap sauce. :)

Germany huh? It the first time being of German decent sounds like a positive. Das is gut.

[QUOTE=repete;502940]401k? Its a ripoff in the first place. Investments? In Banksters? if youre dumb enough to take a chance like that youre wealthy enough to afford to lose it. If it gets as apocalyptic as these guys are saying, then cash wont matter anyway, it wont matter if you have a big house or nice house, a mil in the bank etc. - it will matter if you have skills you can trade for food or better yet if you can grow and produce food.

"if the government doesn’t use all-out force to make its citizens to go along with austerity, the international banking cartel, having blown up the global economy, will withhold further sovereign lending and cause a political crisis. Do you like your debt at gunpoint?"
International Banksters, Now Running Greece, Invoke Wartime Powers | Richmond Tea Party

And you guys think government is bad? try living under the rule of a bankster!

Happy economic news from Greece today
 

I seem to have misplaced my "The Economy" thread. Maybe it wasn't happy enough for the current breed of moderators. Or maybe they don't think truckdrivers are smart enough to digest and make sense of economic news. Or maybe they are misinformed enough to think that what happens across the pond has no effect on the average American "working Joe".

Happy, oh so happy news from across the pond today:

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It's non-political and happy-happy-joy-joy.

As long as the the discussion stays on the economy and how this affects us without breaking down into outright politics it can stay Michigan.

Good to hear the better news from Greece though I'm not completely buying their newest fixes. Eventually they are going to have to make some hard decisions that will further inflame their people. We really do not want to see this domino fall the wrong way, they are the hinge point for the rest of Europe as you said in the other thread.

I was just packaging my remarks in happy talk in an attempt to avoid being censored. The higher rate on Greek bonds simply means that no one wants them and Greece's cost of borrowing has gone through the roof. The only real good news out of Europe yesterday that I saw is the head of the European Central Bank said that Greece probably will get the 11B Euro loan they're waiting on and China wants to buy Italian debt. Bad news included one comment after another that all the headlines out of Germany were about Merkel becoming increasingly isolated in her views on giving Greece more time. Politically it seems either Greece is cooked or she's cooked.



Would you please change the title of this thread to something more appropriate? "Greece" would work.

[QUOTE=One;502957]WOW Your really way out there arn't you? Tell me, are planning on working right up till the day you die or are you planning some kind of retirement?
As far as the end of the world as we know it, a gallon of gas would be worth more than a handfull of $20s but I doubt that will happen. BUT if it does I have a hunting cabin in the woods and room for a big garden, I can make you a deal if you have a green thumb. :LOL:

You do bring up an interesting side thought with Italy there Michigan. Few people knew that they were very close to following Greece. Between us and NATO, we saved Italy at the last second by using them as a staging point for the Libya actions. All countries involved with the Libyan situation are paying Italy essentially rental fees for using their airbases. It has bought the Italians some time to get their house in order without defaulting and last I heard they are rebounding ok.

I didn't know that. Italy getting paid for airbases, that's good. The rumor mill has been working overtime. It's the internet age, spread some good or bad news and go long or short an index fund and make a pile of cash if your planted story goes viral. Italian bonds and China? It turns out no. The biggie today though was a WSJ report quoting an anonymous source at a French bank that said French banks were shut out of US money markets because they were deemed too risky. Of course the market tanked (for awhile) and someone made a pile of money. The bank is supposedly trying to figure out the source of that manure.

I think this might be true. Merkel, Sarcozy and Papandreou are supposedly going to do a conference call tomorrow and they'll probably release a statement about how wonderful everything is and the Dow will go up 200 points and 2 days later everyone will suddenly say "wait just a cotton pickin' minute, we've been had!!!" and the markets will tank. lol

Everyone really needs to simply keep up with Greece and forget all the other BS. Unfortunately the market won't do that, it will just keep jumping back and forth each day and annoy anyone who is playing in the market on what to do next.

What is going on with Greece makes people very nervous. Greece is a very old country. To think about one of the oldest economies in history failing is almost unthinkable. I think that it forces others, such as the U.S. to consider that if Greece can fail, so can we and others.

Ummmmmmmm.......Greece's economy is what.........about the same as that of Tennessee and Mississippi combined??

You can not judge their economic situation by the size or the age of the country. You have to look at the people governing the country, the general business climate, and the population as well. Greece depends on Tourism to sustain their economy. With the majority of the "middle class" hurting world-wide....no wonder they are in trouble. Prime example of how the rich don't help.

That is correct Stan. Greece relies on tourism, they thought that getting the Summer Games would give them a huge boost in tourism so they borrowed a whole lot of money from Europe in order to build the facilities needed to put the Games on. The huge boost in tourism never happened so now they are stuck trying to pay off a lot of large debt to Europe while also asking for more money. They were banking on that boost in tourism to cover paying the debt back. The reason they can't get tourists is due to the cost of everything there. The cost of inflation has killed their tourism because nobody wants to spend such a huge amount of money in these economic times when they can visit a place like Ireland for much cheaper.

And then there's this:

Greece Is Not Contagious - TheStreet

Maybe the glory days of Alexander the Great are over. :)

I wasn't thinking about the size of the Greek economy, but the age of their civilization. Greece has been going in a downward spiral for many years. Had it not been for the worldwide economic collapse, they might have continued for a while. At one time Greece was a major trader of goods around the world. As you stated, they are now mostly dependent on tourism. When the economies of the world are down then people don't travel as far from home and don't spend on things that are unnecessary. Although there is a hugh difference in the size of our economies, it is easy to see that we are heading down the same path of self implosion. I hope they can turn things around. The question is whether they have the will. It will certainly not be a popular political move to address their economic problems. One of the issues they will need to address is their huge retirement obligations. Like our social security, it will not be easy to face.

And now it looks like Italy is back in trouble along with Greece. The future is looking bleak for them again.

'Weakening' Italy's Debt Rating Downgraded - Yahoo!

It's not just "them". When and if any one of these countries start's to fall, it's going to be a domino effect, all of Europe is going to be in BIG trouble, which will end up affecting us.

They're all cooked.

S&P Cites Austerity In Its Downgrade Of Italy

Medium Rare?? :p

For anyone that hasn't been following this. Forced austerity has cut Greek expenditures but every person laid off means one less taxpayer and every dollar in benefits cut means one less dollar being "money multiplied". The net effect is a severe recession with negative gdp growth and higher expenses. To get the next bailout money Greece is being forced to fire 100,000+ government employees.

Default would hurt but at least then the Greeks would have the power to devalue their currency.

As for Italy, Portugal, Spain and Ireland. They'll be watching what happens with Greece to see what their best move is.

Meanwhile, money is flowing out of Euro banks and German politics is a mess (lol complete with a political party called the "Pirate Party" - I'm not joking).

I'm thinking crispy.

I think Ireland is in the best shape of any of them thus far but yes, once one goes they all start going. Ireland has been really hammering with tourism ads in the US and UK whereas the others have not been doing that as hard as the Irish have.

It's going to darn near take a miracle at this point for Greece and Italy is on the verge of needing a miracle, maybe they can get the Pope to perform one as part of his sainthood.

The Greeks no longer have their own currency since they joined the EU. The use the eurodollar and cannot devalue it themselves. However, if they do default it might have an impact on the eurodollar.

I meant if they default and drop out of the Euro. They would then be able to devalue Drachmas all they want. Some people are saying that default is possible while staying in the EU. I wonder if that would be tolerated.

After 2 days of conference calls between Greece and the people representing their creditors there was no major announcement which of course means that no agreement was reached. Greece could run out of money in Oct but I think that just means Gov employees wouldn't get paid (is that default???). The next debt payment they have to make isn't until Dec and if they fail to make that, it's default by anyone's definition. That gives 2 months between apparent default and real default to work things out. Or the Greeks could simply announce default sooner (I think).

That bond I was posting pics of early in the thread - the 2 year Greek bond. It got up to 75% last week when it looked like default was about to happen. It dropped back down to under 55% by last Friday. Now it's over 65% and climbing. For people that know even less about bonds than I do (and someone please correct me if I'm wrong!), a 75% return on a two year Greek bond means you buy a $100 bond for $40. Two years from now Greece pays you $100 for it which gives you around $30/yr interest - about 75%/yr. For comparison, the 2 year US bond pays around 2%.

Edit: For an idea of how cooked Greece is - from the NY Times...