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RostyC · Joined: 21 Oct 2005 Posts: 1041 Location: Maryland

"Wow" is all I can say about this economy right now. We have a housing bubble collapse, weakening dollar, soaring energy prices, as well as rising food prices. It looks like the Fed is going to cut the rate again in March which will further weaken the dollar, causing oil to rise even further. I ran across this article in Yahoo Finance. I'll paste it below also.

Quote: Oil Rally May Be Economy's Undoing
Saturday March 8, 5:36 am ET
By Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer
Record Oil Prices Becoming Hard to Ignore for Investors Preoccupied by Credit Crisis

NEW YORK (AP) -- Preoccupied the last few months with shrinking credit and a slumping economy, Wall Street has all but ignored the relentless rise in oil prices that has taken a barrel of crude to a once-unthinkable $106.

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But the market may not be able to look the other way much longer -- especially when consumers, already hurting from the soaring cost of gasoline, find themselves paying even more to fill their tanks come spring.

"Investors are just getting used to higher oil prices in what has really been a stealth rally," said Peter Dunay, chief investment strategist with Meridian Equity Partners.

He said lofty oil prices "should be getting lots of attention" by Wall Street. But, investors have instead been distracted by a nearly endless stream of bad news about the economy -- from banks taking steep write-downs for soured mortgages to the loss of tens of thousands of jobs.

To be sure, there is a lot for Wall Street to worry about these days. Major stock indexes have slid by double digits since the start of the year as economists fear the economy might already be in a recession. And, the summer's subprime mortgage collapse continues to threaten financial institutions around the world.

Although there certainly were many days last year that Wall Street tumbled in response to the punishing march in oil prices, the advance toward $100 a barrel at 2007's end and the surpassing of that milestone this year might actually have been welcomed by some investors. Institutions have been piling into crude -- along with other commodities -- to flee not just sagging stocks but also the flailing U.S. dollar.

The greenback's fall against other major currencies has helped drive buying across commodities as investors overseas view dollar-denominated assets as relatively cheap. Meanwhile, big institutional investors have used hard assets like oil as a hedge against inflation.

On Friday, oil prices jumped to a new record above $106 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. At the pump, gas prices are 68 cents higher than a year ago, and within a nickel of last May's record price of $3.227 a gallon. And they can only go higher as the summer driving season, which always sends gas climbing, arrives.

Those prices, which have sent the cost of almost everything in the economy higher, are expected to translate into a further increase in inflation. A growing number of economists are becoming concerned that the Federal Reserve, which has been cutting rates in hopes of reinvigorating the economy, will be forced to stop because of the overall effect of more expensive energy.

Should the central bank cut rates at its March 18 meeting, which is widely expected, that move could also further weaken the dollar -- and possibly keep the cycle of rising oil prices going.

Then there is the problem of an even greater impact on the consumer -- whose growing hesitation about spending has been reflected in weak retail sales, even during the holiday season. What happens as gasoline prices in particular increase? The fear is that Americans, forced to pay more money for gasoline and overwhelmed by other economic issues, will continue to hunker down.

"The U.S. consumer, who has carried the economy for the past half-dozen years, is in full defensive mode, battered by falling housing values, spiking food and energy prices, tightening lending standards, the teetering stock market and hints of weakening in the labor market," said T.J. Marta, economic and fixed income strategist for RBC Capital Markets.

He said the consumer is clearly pulling back, and the retrenchment could dramatically pick up speed as energy prices rise. Losing the consumer -- whose spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy -- would have disastrous effects, analysts said.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. reported better-than-expected same-store sales for February this past week. However, investors' cheer was short-lived as the gains appeared to come from bargain-seeking consumers who appeared to pare their purchases elsewhere.

Dunay said monitoring earnings and sales reports at the world's largest retailer is a good way to gauge the mood of consumers. And it's not just big-ticket purchases like televisions and computers used to determine if consumers are nervous.

"Many Wal-Marts have started to stock more food on their shelves," he said. "And, that's a really telling sign."

AP Business Writer John Wilen contributed to this report.

I also have found some good articles at Bloomberg and Blogging Stocks for anyone interested.

People are definitely changing their habits and eventually this commodity bubble will burst, but when? Five dollar fuel? Six? Last week I bought 150 gallons of heating oil for 3.48 a gallon. I wanted to try to hold out but with a cold snap coming I didn't want to chance it and all the companies have a 150 gallon minimum. Sucks when you know you're getting screwed but have no choice.

Batten down the hatches folks!
I might be hitch hiking to MATS! :shock:

Fredog · Joined: 23 Apr 2005 Posts: 2169 Location: North Georgia

RostyC wrote: "Wow" is all I can say about this economy right now. We have a housing bubble collapse, weakening dollar, soaring energy prices, as well as rising food prices. It looks like the Fed is going to cut the rate again in March which will further weaken the dollar, causing oil to rise even further. I ran across this article in Yahoo Finance. I'll paste it below also.

Quote: Oil Rally May Be Economy's Undoing
Saturday March 8, 5:36 am ET
By Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer
Record Oil Prices Becoming Hard to Ignore for Investors Preoccupied by Credit Crisis

NEW YORK (AP) -- Preoccupied the last few months with shrinking credit and a slumping economy, Wall Street has all but ignored the relentless rise in oil prices that has taken a barrel of crude to a once-unthinkable $106.

ADVERTISEMENT
But the market may not be able to look the other way much longer -- especially when consumers, already hurting from the soaring cost of gasoline, find themselves paying even more to fill their tanks come spring.

"Investors are just getting used to higher oil prices in what has really been a stealth rally," said Peter Dunay, chief investment strategist with Meridian Equity Partners.

He said lofty oil prices "should be getting lots of attention" by Wall Street. But, investors have instead been distracted by a nearly endless stream of bad news about the economy -- from banks taking steep write-downs for soured mortgages to the loss of tens of thousands of jobs.

To be sure, there is a lot for Wall Street to worry about these days. Major stock indexes have slid by double digits since the start of the year as economists fear the economy might already be in a recession. And, the summer's subprime mortgage collapse continues to threaten financial institutions around the world.

Although there certainly were many days last year that Wall Street tumbled in response to the punishing march in oil prices, the advance toward $100 a barrel at 2007's end and the surpassing of that milestone this year might actually have been welcomed by some investors. Institutions have been piling into crude -- along with other commodities -- to flee not just sagging stocks but also the flailing U.S. dollar.

The greenback's fall against other major currencies has helped drive buying across commodities as investors overseas view dollar-denominated assets as relatively cheap. Meanwhile, big institutional investors have used hard assets like oil as a hedge against inflation.

On Friday, oil prices jumped to a new record above $106 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. At the pump, gas prices are 68 cents higher than a year ago, and within a nickel of last May's record price of $3.227 a gallon. And they can only go higher as the summer driving season, which always sends gas climbing, arrives.

Those prices, which have sent the cost of almost everything in the economy higher, are expected to translate into a further increase in inflation. A growing number of economists are becoming concerned that the Federal Reserve, which has been cutting rates in hopes of reinvigorating the economy, will be forced to stop because of the overall effect of more expensive energy.

Should the central bank cut rates at its March 18 meeting, which is widely expected, that move could also further weaken the dollar -- and possibly keep the cycle of rising oil prices going.

Then there is the problem of an even greater impact on the consumer -- whose growing hesitation about spending has been reflected in weak retail sales, even during the holiday season. What happens as gasoline prices in particular increase? The fear is that Americans, forced to pay more money for gasoline and overwhelmed by other economic issues, will continue to hunker down.

"The U.S. consumer, who has carried the economy for the past half-dozen years, is in full defensive mode, battered by falling housing values, spiking food and energy prices, tightening lending standards, the teetering stock market and hints of weakening in the labor market," said T.J. Marta, economic and fixed income strategist for RBC Capital Markets.

He said the consumer is clearly pulling back, and the retrenchment could dramatically pick up speed as energy prices rise. Losing the consumer -- whose spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy -- would have disastrous effects, analysts said.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. reported better-than-expected same-store sales for February this past week. However, investors' cheer was short-lived as the gains appeared to come from bargain-seeking consumers who appeared to pare their purchases elsewhere.

Dunay said monitoring earnings and sales reports at the world's largest retailer is a good way to gauge the mood of consumers. And it's not just big-ticket purchases like televisions and computers used to determine if consumers are nervous.

"Many Wal-Marts have started to stock more food on their shelves," he said. "And, that's a really telling sign."

AP Business Writer John Wilen contributed to this report.

I also have found some good articles at Bloomberg and Blogging Stocks for anyone interested.

People are definitely changing their habits and eventually this commodity bubble will burst, but when? Five dollar fuel? Six? Last week I bought 150 gallons of heating oil for 3.48 a gallon. I wanted to try to hold out but with a cold snap coming I didn't want to chance it and all the companies have a 150 gallon minimum. Sucks when you know you're getting screwed but have no choice.

Batten down the hatches folks!
I might be hitch hiking to MATS! :shock:

I never though the day would come when the Canadian dollar was worth more than ours

jedfxg · Joined: 11 Feb 2007 Posts: 553 Location: se buckeye

"take off aye, you hooser."
Quote from the MacKenzie Brothers

RostyC · Joined: 21 Oct 2005 Posts: 1041 Location: Maryland

I'm hearing now the shoe is getting ready to drop on commercial lending, which will effect commercial construction. It's already getting bad in construction as the residential guys are coming over to commercial and bidding cheap. I got outbid the other day on a job in downtown Baltimore by half..........HALF! I just shook my head.

Perhaps we should hold off on building any walls on the southern border, as the illegals might be heading home soon. Probably more work back home. :lol: :lol:

I like that avatar jedfxg, best rockn roll band in the world!

LightsChromeHorsepower · Joined: 09 Jan 2008 Posts: 68

The thing about current oil prices is that they totally unsupported by any fundamentals. Stocks and reserves are growing and demand is, or should be, falling as the economy weakens. My personal opinion is that at least $30.00 of the current oil price is due to speculation. The root cause of which is that we have a global crisis of excess liquidity. A bunch of the money that was buying mortgage backed securities is now chasing oil futures. I predict that the price of oil will drop dramatically at some point, I'm just not sure when, or how much damage will be done to the economy before it does.

My favorite conspiriacy theory is that our current regime knows that it will be out of power next year, and is doing everything it can to destroy the nations economy, so the new regime will have a huge mess to deal with at home as well as in Iraq and Afghanistan.

I'd say if that's there goal, they are doing a great job.

RostyC · Joined: 21 Oct 2005 Posts: 1041 Location: Maryland

LightsChromeHorsepower wrote: The thing about current oil prices is that they totally unsupported by any fundamentals. Stocks and reserves are growing and demand is, or should be, falling as the economy weakens. My personal opinion is that at least $30.00 of the current oil price is due to speculation. The root cause of which is that we have a global crisis of excess liquidity. A bunch of the money that was buying mortgage backed securities is now chasing oil futures. I predict that the price of oil will drop dramatically at some point, I'm just not sure when, or how much damage will be done to the economy before it does.

Exactly, except for last week when crude inventory dropped some, it had been rising for 6 or 7 weeks,as well as gasoline. We're definitely moving away from market fundamentals which means it will crash eventually. I've heard a lot of the analyst say as well it should be between 60 and 75 a barrel.

It's almost fascinating to watch all this unfold but at the same time it's not fun filling the tank. :cry:

rank · Joined: 02 Oct 2006 Posts: 1268

LightsChromeHorsepower wrote:
My favorite conspiriacy theory is that our current regime knows that it will be out of power next year, and is doing everything it can to destroy the nations economy, so the new regime will have a huge mess to deal with at home as well as in Iraq and Afghanistan.

I'd say if that's there goal, they are doing a great job.
He's been doing a great job for 7 years. Funny how we only notice it now.....when it affects our wallets.

LightsChromeHorsepower · Joined: 09 Jan 2008 Posts: 68

If you think he's been doing a great job, I want the name of your drug connection. You're obviously smoking better stuff than I can find.

Unless you think having the economy and the environment both destroyed, while watching the greatest concentration of wealth in the hands of the upper class in 80 years, and seeing real jobs for the middle class move offshore at an unprecedented rate while speculators grow wealthier and the rest of us will spend decades paying the several trillion dollar bill for a completely unneccessary war is all good.

In that case we are in wonderful shape.

Just keep buying all the Chinese made $&!+ at Wal Mart and don't worry about your right of habeas corpus.

Ignorance is bliss.

geomon · Joined: 13 Jul 2005 Posts: 580 Location: Sacramento, CA

Quote: Exactly, except for last week when crude inventory dropped some, it had been rising for 6 or 7 weeks,as well as gasoline.

You have to be careful that you're not taking US (only) inventories as world wide demand has been and continues to grow fueled by both China and India's rise in standards of living...there's lots of them peeps over there that want air conditioning/heat-new toys-cars etc..etc...etc. Our % of WW oil consumption isn't what it once was.

As I don't know what either US or WW inventories are, I hope you're right and Mr Market adjusts to the decreased demand and those speculators get burned (oil burn??).

Fredog · Joined: 23 Apr 2005 Posts: 2169 Location: North Georgia

LightsChromeHorsepower wrote: If you think he's been doing a great job, I want the name of your drug connection. RUSH LIMBAUGH You're obviously smoking better stuff than I can find.

Unless you think having the economy and the environment both destroyed, while watching the greatest concentration of wealth in the hands of the upper class in 80 years, and seeing real jobs for the middle class move offshore at an unprecedented rate while speculators grow wealthier and the rest of us will spend decades paying the several trillion dollar bill for a completely unneccessary war is all good.

In that case we are in wonderful shape.

Just keep buying all the Chinese made $&!+ at Wal Mart and don't worry about your right of habeas corpus.

Ignorance is bliss.

rank · Joined: 02 Oct 2006 Posts: 1268

LightsChromeHorsepower wrote: If you think he's been doing a great job, I want the name of your drug connection. You're obviously smoking better stuff than I can find.

Unless you think having the economy and the environment both destroyed, while watching the greatest concentration of wealth in the hands of the upper class in 80 years, and seeing real jobs for the middle class move offshore at an unprecedented rate while speculators grow wealthier and the rest of us will spend decades paying the several trillion dollar bill for a completely unneccessary war is all good.

In that case we are in wonderful shape.

Just keep buying all the Chinese made $&!+ at Wal Mart and don't worry about your right of habeas corpus.

Ignorance is bliss.
I just had to quote you for the record since I was agreeing with you and you flamed me...and even called me ignorant in the process.

I've seen Bush for what he is since very early in his first term. I've been called every name under the sun by all manner of flag wavers as they struggle to support the worst president in the history of the United States. My favourite is "How dare you not support our troops"...because you've been brainwashed into thinking that lack of support for bush is lack of support for the troops.

I find it funny how all the Bush Bashers like you are crawling out of the wood work now that he's almost out of office.

Lou Dobbs even approached the threshold of anger a couple of evenings ago on his TV show. You're all so brainwashed to speak out against the presidency it's laughable. And this from folks who tout their "freedom" at every opportunity.

I find it ironic that people put an oil man in the white house and then complain when oil prices go up.

I stood in disbelief when I watched the leaders of the free world re-elect Hitler's spawn.

Yeah. I'm the ignorant one.

:roll:

stormothecentury · Joined: 31 Dec 2007 Posts: 132 Location: Rochester, NY

Rank, I thought the same thing when I read what you wrote - going back, I caught the intent, but it just didn't come across real well at first. Just one of the perils of the internets. :lol:

mike3fan · Joined: 04 Aug 2006 Posts: 1665 Location: michigan

rank wrote: I find it funny how all the Bush Bashers like you are crawling out of the wood work now that he's almost out of office.

I find it ironic that people put an oil man in the white house and then complain when oil prices go up.

I've been here all along,but not much support for my views on this board so it's gets kinda pointless.

If anyone thinks that our current President won't become the richest former President in history they are sadly mistaken,he will be put on many stockholders boards and given some ungodly fee for speaking engagements(kinda ironic).

Orangetxguy · Joined: 23 Jan 2007 Posts: 1505

mike3fan wrote: rank wrote: I find it funny how all the Bush Bashers like you are crawling out of the wood work now that he's almost out of office.

I find it ironic(Aint't it though !!) that people put an oil man in the white house and then complain when oil prices go up.

I've been here all along,but not much support for my views on this board so it's gets kinda pointless.

If anyone thinks that our current President won't become the richest former President in history they are sadly mistaken,he will be put on many stockholders boards and given some ungodly fee for speaking engagements(kinda ironic).

Republicans like to berate ole" Billy boy...who makes quite the little sum doing his "Speeches". Georgie boy is gonna kick Billy's ass, $$$,$$$,$$$wise, once he is out of office.

And we will still be left holding the bag...but Republicans are just not seeing the bag(They get to hold some of it too...at least those Repub's whom are not in the super-rich catagory)...it is pretty transparent material.

Orangetxguy · Joined: 23 Jan 2007 Posts: 1505

Here is someone with his head in the clouds.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080308/bs_nm/usa_paulson_dollar_dc;_ylt=AgMv687OScqk5TjD6gwn4j2yBhIF

STANFORD, California (Reuters) - Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on Friday reiterated his view that a strong dollar was in the U.S. interest and the greenback's value would ultimately reflect strong economic fundamentals.

"The strong dollar is in the nation's interest. Our economy like any other has got its ups and downs," Paulson told an economic policy conference at Stanford University. "The long term fundamentals are strong. And I'm confident they'll be reflected in currency market."

The dollar has declined in value as the U.S. economy has weakened under the strain of a housing crisis and financial market turmoil. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have also reduced the dollar's value against major currencies including the euro and Britain's pound.

(Reporting by David Lawder, editing by Todd Eastham)

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