What trucking SEGMENT best in next 2-3 years?

[Frogman]

OK, here's a question for the economists in the crowd . . . or drivers who have been at this a while and have seen the economy go up and down.

It seems to me that

Flat bedding pays best . . .
Then tankers . . . especially food . . .
Then reefers . . .
Then vans . . .

(Car hauling is in there but not sure where.)

What I get from that is that in a strong economy, flat bedding pays best (to feed the construction and manufacturing industries) but then food comes next.

So, question: If the economy does slow and housing construction continue slowing . . . would it be smarter to go into tankers and/or reefers?

Or is there enough business regardless, to always make flat bedding #1?

[Uturn2001]

IMHO the most stable segment in trucking is reefers. People have to eat, they usually do not have to buy durable goods.

When the economy slows, every segment of trucking is affected one way or the other. Out of the categories you listed, reefer would likely be less affected since it deals mostly with food products (AKA: consumer staples). Ditto for the fuel-haulers and food-grade tankers. When the housing market slumps, skateboarders (flatbeds) generally take it on the chin more so than other sectors. Alot of time, the the flatbed guys start horning in on the dry-van guys freight to keep their trucks moving.

Last year at this time, the economy was booming at about a 5.5% clip. The problem now is that most fleets have too many drivers and too many trucks chasing too little freight. Thus, alot of guys are sitting around more waiting on loads.

That's another reason why I advise younger guys to get into LTL. Pretty much all of the LTL companies have a seniority board, so you're less likely to get canned and more likely to work once you get up there on the totem pole. As you start getting long in the tooth, you'll be on an old-man's gravy bid-run.

Heck if work does slow and\or I do happen to get laid off, I'd rather be kicked back at home collecting max unemployment than parked in some nasty-azz truckstop. Plus I can always go to work for my buddy off the books until things pick up.

[ken_o]

not really a segment but more of a sub segment. trucks and trailers will always break, theirs gotta be someone to fix em. be a mechanic charge an outrageous hourly rate and laugh all the way to the bank.

[Ian Williams]

OK, here's a question for the economists in the crowd . . . or drivers who have been at this a while and have seen the economy go up and down.

It seems to me that

Flat bedding pays best . . .
Then tankers . . . especially food . . .
Then reefers . . .
Then vans . . .

(Car hauling is in there but not sure where.)

What I get from that is that in a strong economy, flat bedding pays best (to feed the construction and manufacturing industries) but then food comes next.

So, question: If the economy does slow and housing construction continue slowing . . . would it be smarter to go into tankers and/or reefers?

Or is there enough business regardless, to always make flat bedding #1?

For our purposes here I would throw Car Hauling in with flatbedding. Might as well throw in oversize/overweight as well.

As usual I'm going to agree with ColdFrosty, LTL is the best segment of trucking in terms of pay & home time.

If I had to choose between foodgrade tanks and reefers I'd take the tanker in an instant. Unless I got paid detention time to the tune of like $15/hr I would never deal with reefer.

[Adam9315]

LTL is nice if you don't have many bills to pay and you have some money saved up. That on-call mess is horrible I bet. I'm looking into some LTL companies myself though. That otr mess would probably mess me up mentally. OTR is last resort for me.

[screven]

I have never had trouble finding enough to do with flatbed. I think it's a very stable way to run.

[BanditsCousin]

Household goods are ppredicted to go down, despite this being one of the slowest seasons in the past 4-5 years.

Housing booms affect the bedbugger industry. The economy does NOT affect bedbugging. When jobs are scarce, people are moving to lower cost of living demographics. When the economy booms, people are buying big (New) houses that they often barely afford

Intermodal is going to increase. Based on what I learned in school, the general public does not know that China is going to be a superpower soon. Plus, our trade deficit with them is like 13% or like 13:1 ration of import/export. Expect stuff coming into the ports in unprecedented numbers in the next 2-10 years

As long as people eat meat, livestock hauling will remain strong and rise with population growth. I guess the same goes for refrigerated carriers, because, even if there is a wave of "vegetarianism" veggies will still need hauling!

Pretty much, trucking will be growing with the economy. Thats why politics is a subject we should all have in the back of our minds.

[GMAN]

I agree with some of the others who mentioned reefers. Historically, reefers seem to be less affected by economic changes than other segments of the industry. Anything do do with food will be more stable and less volatile than other segments. Most economists projects the entire industry to be in a major growth spurt for the next decade or so.

Any time you can become more specialized and provide a service which others either don't or unwilling to do you should do better than most segments of the industry. Hauling cars is at the top of pay, but is very sensitive to economic changes. Flat bedding is very much reliant on the steel and construction industries. When building is down or car sales are off, then flatbed freight will be down. We will probably see the changes before other aspects of the industry. You are right about flats paying better than vans. Again, it gets back to specialization. Over-sized and over dimensional freight also pays better. There are specializations within certain segments of the industry. For instance, HHG has electronics, trade shows as well as household moving. Carhauling has auctions, POV's, new and exotic. Each of these segments may pay differently. Some segments require several years of experience before you will be allowed to work for some companies. You don't just walk in off the street and start hauling exotic cars.

There are more containers coming into the country. The pay has been lower than most other aspects of the industry. If the growth continues, the shortage should help increase rates. Pulling tankers tends to pay fairly well. The lower end of the pay scale tends to be vans. It is a matter of supply and demand.

I would not worry too much about which segment pays better or will grow more right now. Just find something you enjoy hauling and have a good time. We tend to excel at things we enjoy.

[Useless]

Gotta' Question For'ya', Mr. G-Man!!

I thought about hauling reefers when I first started driving, but figured it wasn't worth the prison time if I got caught!!

In any event, even though the demand for drivers should remain strong, my concern is that with the influx of drivers from Mexico, and other countries, pay scales for regular freight haulers could become very stagnant.

What about hauling specialized loads, like drop-deck or "Over sized Loads"?? What does it take to get into that type of specialized hauling??

[stevedb28]

Household goods are ppredicted to go down, despite this being one of the slowest seasons in the past 4-5 years.

Housing booms affect the bedbugger industry. The economy does NOT affect bedbugging. When jobs are scarce, people are moving to lower cost of living demographics. When the economy booms, people are buying big (New) houses that they often barely afford

Intermodal is going to increase. Based on what I learned in school, the general public does not know that China is going to be a superpower soon. Plus, our trade deficit with them is like 13% or like 13:1 ration of import/export. Expect stuff coming into the ports in unprecedented numbers in the next 2-10 years

As long as people eat meat, livestock hauling will remain strong and rise with population growth. I guess the same goes for refrigerated carriers, because, even if there is a wave of "vegetarianism" veggies will still need hauling!

Pretty much, trucking will be growing with the economy. Thats why politics is a subject we should all have in the back of our minds.

Not to get off topic, but to the vegetarians out there had their dose of spinach today, lol sorry a little dig I suppose. But how many people died in the U.S. died of mad cow as opposed to ecoli or however its spelled? And red meats bad for you, noooo a lot of red meat is bad for you. A glass of wine a day good, a case a day baaad. A tablespoon of baked beans to go with that bbq good a can, baaaaad. lol ok I made my jab today. Im sorry if I offended anyone, I just had to get on my soapbox for a min.

Popeye
1918 - 2006
R.I.P

[ken_o]

not to getoff topic the thread is about truck segments and your speaking of mad cow and ecoli come on i got a laugh though.

[Ian Williams]

There is another segment that we have overlooked here

Recycling & Waste Disposal. With the exception of some hazardous stuff it is entirely local or regional. Where I used to live in Humboldt County (CA) all the trash was trucked up to Southern Oregon. It would have to rank with Reefers in terms of being non-cyclical.

Intermodal seems to be the pits in terms of pricing & wages. They make $8-10 hr in LA/Long Beach. Heck you can make more at the In & Out burger and get bennies too!

[Sizzle]

I did driveaway and that was a great paying job. [You deliver new trucks to dealerships and trucking companies.] You get a lot of home time. You fly after delivering the trucks and stay in motels every night of your life. All the motels and airfares are paid for by the company. I don't know where it fits in the "big picture". However, it doesn't seem to be as cyclical as regular freight. Although, I'm sure in really bad economic times there won't be many truck sales.

I can't imagine the sale of semis slowing down too much since I've spoken to people who have done driveaway for years. They've made it sound pretty stable. This next year might not be very good since the new EPA standards will have to be incorporated into the 2007 models.

Once you've passed the obligatory 90 day probation period you are vested in retirement within 5 years. I doubt there are many trucking positions that offer that?!? The specific job that I'm talking about is with Auto Truck Transport out of Joplin, Missouri. They haul the Volvos, Macks, Freightliners, Western Stars, Sterlings, Fords... Their sister company Active hauls the Peterbilts and Kenworths.

I personally would never do reefer due to the horror stories I've heard about the exorbitant wait times at grocery warehouses. Although, I admit I'm spoiled I started in freight for all of two months and then I got lucky and went right into driveaway. It's a much different lifestyle than regular "truckin". All my friends that stayed in driveaway rant and rave about their pay and benefits.

You get 40 cents a mile to start and I understand it's up to 50 cents per mile now at some of the top pay scales. You also get paid to take the trucks apart. You get one day off per six days. If you have 5 days or more off you get the weekends before and after also. That will never happen in freight. It's definitely hard work taking trucks apart but it's a skill that very few drivers have or will have. It's tough to get into them because they run extensive background checks on you. There was a time they wanted you to be Canadian qualified also, don't know if that's still in effect. [Can't have any felonies, misdemeanors or owe back child support.]

I got addicted to staying in motels and flying. I tell everyone that I was a princess and puff I'm now back to a frog. When our company stopped hauling the Volvos I was hired by Auto Truck but they wanted me to move back east and I live in the Rockies and didn't want to go back east. When I hauled Volvos for my old company I was in the east and Canada all the time. I missed the snow capped mountain peaks out west so I've stayed out here and unfortunately I'm back in freight. UGH!!!

Good luck with your decision. If you want to do driveaway call Auto Truck (800) 329-2815. The drawback is they want you to live within 100 miles of one of their terminals so they don't have to get two airline tickets every time you go home. [One home and one back to one of their terminals.] When I hauled the Volvos, I was in Quebec, Canada at Christmas time of 2004 and they had to fly me back to Denver for hometime and then in turn fly me back to Virginia after home time to the terminal. As you can see that can be very expensive to have to give a driver two airline tickets every time they go home. You get to keep your frequent flier miles so you rack up free tickets all the time.

Make sure you know where their terminals are and use a friend's or family members address if you don't live within 100 miles of their terminals. The terminals I know about are: two in North Carolina [Freightliners]; one in Virginia [Volvos]; Springfield, Ohio; Laredo, TX; Garland, TX; Portland, Oregon. Check their website for other terminals. 8)

[marcel27208]

Intermodal is increasing the most

[tdriver1959]

yes intermodal is increasing a lot and the pay our company is getting for them is going up. We give them 2 hours to unload and after that they have to pay an hourly rate for every hour we sit. being paid by the hour if we are moving or not is the best way to go. Had to sit 10 hours last week at a place and was paid all the time i was sitting there. better than being paid mileage

[Frogman]

Intermodal is increasing the most

What is intermodal?

[larryh31]

intermodal is shipping the trailer by rail close to its destination and then using a truck to deliver the freight to the customer.

[dieselgrl]

As long as people eat meat, livestock hauling will remain strong and rise with population growth.

I don't have any figures on that one, but watching these ranches suffer during the Texas drought would have me a little doubtful on that segment. Too many of these ol' boys are having to sell out the livestock because it's too expensive to feed them...granted, that's just in this area, so maybe if you run Wyoming or Montana or something it would be better....

Eh, digression....

EDIT - had to fix one of my tags...

[Ian Williams]

I just read in yesterdays Wall Street Journal that Volvo is laying off about 1/3 (~1000) of its workforce at their plant in Virgina. This is in addition to the 500 laid off at the Mack plant in Maryland.

Class 8 truck sales are going to take a dive next year. No one wants to be a paying Beta tester for all the new emissions control gear. If this plays out the same as when the lead was taken out of gas in the early 80s for cars we are in for a few years of grief.

Ian