March trucking index- not the bottom, yet.

[lowrange]

trucking news: Ata reports for-hire tonnage index is down 4.5 percent


jeff berman, group news editor -- logistics management, 4/30/2009

arlington, va.—following two months of growth, the american trucking associations (ata) reported this week that its tonnage index slipped in march for its first month-to-month decrease of 2009.

the ata said that its advanced seasonally adjusted for-hire truck tonnage index was down 4.5 percent in march. the for-hire index was up 4.5 percent cumulatively in january and march.

and the ata’s seasonally-adjusted index equaled 101.4 (2000=100), which represents its lowest level since march 2002. The ata’s not seasonally adjusted index in march was up 10.2 percent over february at 104.7, indicating that fleets reported higher volumes in january. But ata officials said that this gain falls short of the typical 15-20 percent increase that typically occurs from february to march.

what’s more, another sign that tonnage levels remain depressed is that tonnage contracted 12.2 percent in march and is the second-worse year-over-year decrease, following december 2008 when tonnage dipped 12.5 percent.

even though tonnage remains down, ata chief economist said the bottom has not been reached.

“many fleets were telling us during march that freight was getting a little better,” costello said in a statement. “the problem is that freight should be significantly better in march, which is why the seasonally adjusted index fell. While the industry is desperate for some positive news, it is unfortunate that march’s data suggests the industry has not hit bottom just yet.”

similar views and observations were heard at this week’s national shippers strategic council (nasstrac) annual conference in orlando, fla., with trucking executives telling lm that business conditions and volumes started to appear “less worse” in march, but there is still ways to go before a full recovery is seen.

last month, stephens inc. Managing director thom albrecht wrote in a research note that despite a few inferences that freight volumes are seeing moderating declines and/or even establishing a floor, nothing suggests any sort of measurable recovery. And even though tonnage has seen gains in recent months albrecht pointed out tonnage has not seen these current low levels since september 2003.
albrecht told lm in an interview that he focuses on the not seasonally adjusted index on a year-over-year basis for an “apples-to-apples” comparison.

“this is what the actual truckers feel out there,” he said. “i’m not a big fan of seasonally adjusted data.” he added that the ata’s not seasonally adjusted index fell 8.5 percent year-over-year in march, coming off of a 2.1 percent year-over-year decline in march 2008.

trucking serves as a barometer of the u.s. Economy, because it represents nearly 70 percent of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods, according to the ata. The ata notes that it hauled 10.2 billion tons of freight in 2008, and that motor carriers collected $660.3 billion—or 83.1 percent—of total revenue earned by all transport modes.

http://www.logisticsmgmt.com/article/ca6655487.html?industryid=48467

12345

[lowrange]

Just completed a couple of phat loads, to California and back. The eery thing is, 'back' is the Dow plant in Midland, MI.

We lost our contract with Dow and our terminal has been closed. I'm sitting in the terminal right now, it's a good-sized terminal and it's quiet and peaceful, set back in the woods a bit. I'll probably have to deadhead 150-350 miles to a tankwash and to get another load.

I'm not trying to depress anyone with these postings, I'm just trying to stay on top of things. I wonder how much capacity has been taken out of the industry the past couple of years.

[mike3fan]

Just completed a couple of phat loads, to California and back. The eery thing is, 'back' is the Dow plant in Midland, MI.

We lost our contract with Dow and our terminal has been closed. I'm sitting in the terminal right now, it's a good-sized terminal and it's quiet and peaceful, set back in the woods a bit. I'll probably have to deadhead 150-350 miles to a tankwash and to get another load.

I'm not trying to depress anyone with these postings, I'm just trying to stay on top of things. I wonder how much capacity has been taken out of the industry the past couple of years.

The QC terminal in Midland,MI closed?

[lowrange]

The QC terminal in Midland,MI closed?

Deserted. Tankwash, everything. How are things over there, Mike? As I said, I just had a nice Cali run. Tomorrow, I pick up a load in the Joliet vicinity going toward Baltimore to try to get back into that little niche. It's working for me, you just hear things. And, seeing that terminal...a ghost town.... Anyway, I think it was Transport Service that got the Dow contract.

[mike3fan]

Deserted. Tankwash, everything. How are things over there, Mike? As I said, I just had a nice Cali run. Tomorrow, I pick up a load in the Joliet vicinity going toward Baltimore to try to get back into that little niche. It's working for me, you just hear things. And, seeing that terminal...a ghost town.... Anyway, I think it was Transport Service that got the Dow contract.

Interesting, we got alot of our Dow trailers washed there, but the last few times I went to Transport Service to get them done, so that might explain things. I know that it was a union terminal so not surprised that it ended up closing after they lost the Dow contract, I can't count the number of time that my BOL from Dow said do not ship by Quality Carriers.....

I have been trying to stick close to our Chicago terminal as they seem to be the only terminal that has consistant freight on a day in day out basis. It's been slow for sure but keeping my head above water so far.

[GMAN]

I hope things pick up soon for both of you. All we can do is hang in there until freight picks up and rates come up.

[lowrange]

Interesting, we got alot of our Dow trailers washed there, but the last few times I went to Transport Service to get them done, so that might explain things. I know that it was a union terminal so not surprised that it ended up closing after they lost the Dow contract, I can't count the number of time that my BOL from Dow said do not ship by Quality Carriers.....

I have been trying to stick close to our Chicago terminal as they seem to be the only terminal that has consistant freight on a day in day out basis. It's been slow for sure but keeping my head above water so far.

What? Some kind of conspiracy? I wonder what the story was there. Who did we piss off and how? Anyway, I was talking to one of the Transport Service drivers and they are jamming them on the delivery times. I won't miss that.

Transport Service wouldn't do Lotran 35A, or whatever it is called- herbicide. I'd have gotten a brokered shorty out of there if I could have found someone to wash me out in Midland.

[Orangetxguy]

Just completed a couple of phat loads, to California and back. The eery thing is, 'back' is the Dow plant in Midland, MI.

We lost our contract with Dow and our terminal has been closed. I'm sitting in the terminal right now, it's a good-sized terminal and it's quiet and peaceful, set back in the woods a bit. I'll probably have to deadhead 150-350 miles to a tankwash and to get another load.

I'm not trying to depress anyone with these postings, I'm just trying to stay on top of things. I wonder how much capacity has been taken out of the industry the past couple of years.

Miller closed the Little rock AR Terminal yesterday. They lost the Ashland account to QC.

[lowrange]

I hope things pick up soon for both of you. All we can do is hang in there until freight picks up and rates come up.

Actually Gman, I'm probably doing better than most- just guessing. The thing is, there is just enough work, and the rates are much better than when I was pulling vans for Landstar. Going out to Cali, $2.70 linehaul plus fuel. My load tomorrow, $2.40 linehaul plus fuel. Pulling vans, I'd jump on $2.40 linehaul, maybe 'all in', taking a load out of van paradise Chicago into trucking no man's land Florida. I did well to get half that coming out.

The tanker rates are good, though I don't have any past to compare them to. Yes, you have the unpaid washout, but I don't really mind that. The trick for me is, can I get the freight? So far it's there. Not a lot, but enough. The important thing is I'm not working 7 days a work for low rates just to get by. When I do work, I make enough so that I can actually afford to sit and mess around on the computer for a few days.

How's the flatbed end?

[no_worries]

I wonder how much capacity has been taken out of the industry the past couple of years.

Not nearly enough.

[lowrange]

Miller closed the Little rock AR Terminal yesterday. They lost the Ashland account to QC.

Hey! One for the good guys! Probably slashed the heck out of that, huh?

[lowrange]

Not nearly enough.

Well, we are talking about guys losing their livelihood. Seen any stats? We need to track some down. Sounds like Mexican trucking refuses to die. If I got a 'B' in econ 101, increasing the supply of drivers ultimately means depressing the wages. I got that B!

[no_worries]

Well, we are talking about guys losing their livelihood. Seen any stats? We need to track some down. Sounds like Mexican trucking refuses to die. If I got a 'B' in econ 101, increasing the supply of drivers ultimately means depressing the wages. I got that B!

I've seen stats. They vary depending on the source. I don't have them in front of me so this is all just ballpark. Q3 last year was the worst for trucking failures. Depending on the source, I've seen everything from a .4% decline in that quarter to 10%. The last two quarters haven't been near as bad but again, the data varies. Some sources cite small drops in the fleet while some say the number of trucks increased slightly. Much of this discrepancy comes from data sources used. Some are simply class 8 registrations, others are an estimate of sales, and some try to accumulate fleet numbers.

My impression. We saw a decent drop in Q3 of actual OTR trucks working, probably in the 5-7% range. There were a few high profile failures that figured in that quarter (Jevic, autos) and a ton of O/O's went down due to fuel. I think we shrunk a little more in Q4 and Q1 as the large fleets idled trucks. Most of the SEC reports have cited this downsizing activity. I think the idling has mostly stopped and we're starting to see hiring activity increase again as the seasonal pickup occurs.

I would guess that we're probably down somewhere around 10% from peak capacity which occurred in 2007. Unfortunately, at the time that peak occurred, analysts said we were at approximately 16% excess capacity. We still haven't pulled back to anywhere near that equilibrium and current freight volumes are significantly lower. All that translates to far worse relative overcapacity today.

The Mexican trucks are a non-issue. Our problem is wholly domestic. Since the freight recession began over two years ago, we've experience high fuel prices and low rates, but not concurrently. High fuel took out far more trucks than low rates have. Low rates will eventually have the same effect, but it takes much longer. That's what we're seeing now. Guys are out running for cash flow, which they can keep up for a given period of time. However, it eventually catches up to them.

What I'm seeing (and what the ATA numbers reflect), is that we're getting a seasonal bump. There's more freight now than there was last month, but the size of the increase is well below normal. Lots of trucks have been trying to hold on until the "Spring rush" and now that it's here, they're moving, but rate cutting is rampant. We'll lose a lot of trucks over the next few quarters simply due to slow freight, and if we get a bump in fuel prices at the same time, we'll lose a lot more.

[lowrange]

I've seen stats. They vary depending on the source. I don't have them in front of me so this is all just ballpark. Q3 last year was the worst for trucking failures. Depending on the source, I've seen everything from a .4% decline in that quarter to 10%. The last two quarters haven't been near as bad but again, the data varies. Some sources cite small drops in the fleet while some say the number of trucks increased slightly. Much of this discrepancy comes from data sources used. Some are simply class 8 registrations, others are an estimate of sales, and some try to accumulate fleet numbers.

My impression. We saw a decent drop in Q3 of actual OTR trucks working, probably in the 5-7% range. There were a few high profile failures that figured in that quarter (Jevic, autos) and a ton of O/O's went down due to fuel. I think we shrunk a little more in Q4 and Q1 as the large fleets idled trucks. Most of the SEC reports have cited this downsizing activity. I think the idling has mostly stopped and we're starting to see hiring activity increase again as the seasonal pickup occurs.

I would guess that we're probably down somewhere around 10% from peak capacity which occurred in 2007. Unfortunately, at the time that peak occurred, analysts said we were at approximately 16% excess capacity. We still haven't pulled back to anywhere near that equilibrium and current freight volumes are significantly lower. All that translates to far worse relative overcapacity today.

The Mexican trucks are a non-issue. Our problem is wholly domestic. Since the freight recession began over two years ago, we've experience high fuel prices and low rates, but not concurrently. High fuel took out far more trucks than low rates have. Low rates will eventually have the same effect, but it takes much longer. That's what we're seeing now. Guys are out running for cash flow, which they can keep up for a given period of time. However, it eventually catches up to them.

What I'm seeing (and what the ATA numbers reflect), is that we're getting a seasonal bump. There's more freight now than there was last month, but the size of the increase is well below normal. Lots of trucks have been trying to hold on until the "Spring rush" and now that it's here, they're moving, but rate cutting is rampant. We'll lose a lot of trucks over the next few quarters simply due to slow freight, and if we get a bump in fuel prices at the same time, we'll lose a lot more.

Remind me never to research all this. I can just ask you and learn much more than I'd ever find on my own.

Ok, so we started out with excess capacity and there has been a surprising amount of staying power. That said, if guys really have been struggling, maybe all of a sudden they'll start falling away in droves. I don't want to celebrate too much, we're talking about peoples' livelihoods. Not only that, many of us got into trucking in the first place because something else dried up. When the auto plant or the steel plant closes what do you do? You get a CDL, of course? Now, what happens when there isn't the work in trucking? I guess we work for President Obama. And, what happens after the economy collapses? Better dig out that Boy Scout survival guide.

I'm not trying to get too morbid, just paying attention. I have to say, I'm blessed. I had no idea if there would be any work after the New Year. Thanks largely to Mike3fan, I got into this tanker gig and the rates are holding up, though I hope Panera never finds out how much of their bandwidth I'm using.

[GMAN]

Actually Gman, I'm probably doing better than most- just guessing. The thing is, there is just enough work, and the rates are much better than when I was pulling vans for Landstar. Going out to Cali, $2.70 linehaul plus fuel. My load tomorrow, $2.40 linehaul plus fuel. Pulling vans, I'd jump on $2.40 linehaul, maybe 'all in', taking a load out of van paradise Chicago into trucking no man's land Florida. I did well to get half that coming out.

The tanker rates are good, though I don't have any past to compare them to. Yes, you have the unpaid washout, but I don't really mind that. The trick for me is, can I get the freight? So far it's there. Not a lot, but enough. The important thing is I'm not working 7 days a work for low rates just to get by. When I do work, I make enough so that I can actually afford to sit and mess around on the computer for a few days.

How's the flatbed end?

I am glad you are getting good rates, lowrange. Are those gross or truck money? Flatbed rates have been pretty flat (no pun intended). Most flat bed rates that I am seeing range from around $1.40-1.80. $2.00 rates are still around but not as common. We do some seasonal freight that paid a little over $2.00, but the heavy rains pretty much killed our season this spring. There were some who came in and undercut prices which also hurt the season. I did pull a load the other day that paid $2.10. That is one of the highest rate that I have seen lately. There are many more close to $1/mile than $2/mile. I do see some upward movement, but not nearly enough. There are still too many fingers in the pie and too many who are willing to haul those cheaper loads. It makes it much more difficult to get a better rate. We are still basically in a survival mode. At least our volume is coming up somewhat. Fuel is on it's way up so that should help push rates up. Higher fuel should also force more carriers and owner operators out of business. We still need to reduce capacity about 20% to have a major impact.

[GMAN]

I've seen stats. They vary depending on the source. I don't have them in front of me so this is all just ballpark. Q3 last year was the worst for trucking failures.

The 3rd quarter was pretty good for us but the 4th quarter was the pitts. The 1st quarter of this year wasn't very good either. So far the second quarter of this year has been a little better. The 1st quarter didn't have much freight. The second has had freight but cheap rates. We shall see how it ends. I think smaller carriers are in a different position than the large carriers. It is much easier for a smaller carrier to find a niche' and do better during lean times. (I am still looking for my niche')

[WillLowbed4Food]

This thread is pretty enlightening for me. It's information coming right from the horse's mouth, not the other end.

I'm a 30 year-in-the-business driver/former owner op., who has seen a lot of changes over the years. I got out in 2006 due to the rising costs, and a million-mile truck that was paid for but nickel & diming me to the point I couldn't hang on any more.

For instance, my last truck was a '97 379 with an N-14. If it weren't for that bullet-proof motor and my ability to fix a lot of things myself, it would have been a lot harder.

When I blew a rear in the spring of '06, I made the decision to buy a used cut-off with freshened up suspension and differentials out of a wreck. I unbolted my old worn out stuff and rolled the "new" back underneath and rebolted. For $3K, I was in better shape than most would have been. Trouble was, I was out of money and needed to get going and build myself back up. Unfortunately, I let the well get a little too dry, and ended up selling the truck and try the job market, with the intentions of working for a while until I get another deal in a niche and another truck.

Now I've found myself scratching around since then, having had about 10 different jobs since. Something always seems to change for one reason or another. The biggest complaint I have is, wages...I try to stay in a specialized niche such as heavy haul or oversized, but that freight is down dramatically along with all the rest. Tanker work has always been a good fallback as well, but in my region around Albany, NY and the surrounding areas, there a lot of competition, keeping rates at bay all the time. Wages remain the same way.

I now am currently hauling propane in the Northeast, a lucrative job in the winter, but on the verge of literally stopping right now due to season being done. I'm out pounding the pavement daily, and obviously going to the extremes of joining trucking forums now I'm so desperate... Now my thinking has switched to looking for work outside the northeast, hoping the midwest or thereabouts would be a bit more productive.

My point is, you'd think a guy like me and many of us with a little background in just about all phases of the business could get a job anywhere...so I used to think. Not so much right now. I was really seriously hallucinating lately about getting into a used truck again and bustin' my arse to create another specialized deal to create a job for myself again, but after eavesdropping in on you guys' experiences in the field right now, I'm a little bit leary.

So now what do I do...remain in a survival mode like the rest, keep pounding the pavement to no avail, or what?

Tough decision. Anyways, didn't mean to get so long-winded guys. I enjoyed your honest opinions. Keep on truckin', hang in there, and eventually it'll turn around. I truly believe EVERYTHING is cyclictic.

[GMAN]

This thread is pretty enlightening for me. It's information coming right from the horse's mouth, not the other end.

I'm a 30 year-in-the-business driver/former owner op., who has seen a lot of changes over the years. I got out in 2006 due to the rising costs, and a million-mile truck that was paid for but nickel & diming me to the point I couldn't hang on any more.

For instance, my last truck was a '97 379 with an N-14. If it weren't for that bullet-proof motor and my ability to fix a lot of things myself, it would have been a lot harder.

When I blew a rear in the spring of '06, I made the decision to buy a used cut-off with freshened up suspension and differentials out of a wreck. I unbolted my old worn out stuff and rolled the "new" back underneath and rebolted. For $3K, I was in better shape than most would have been. Trouble was, I was out of money and needed to get going and build myself back up. Unfortunately, I let the well get a little too dry, and ended up selling the truck and try the job market, with the intentions of working for a while until I get another deal in a niche and another truck.

Now I've found myself scratching around since then, having had about 10 different jobs since. Something always seems to change for one reason or another. The biggest complaint I have is, wages...I try to stay in a specialized niche such as heavy haul or oversized, but that freight is down dramatically along with all the rest. Tanker work has always been a good fallback as well, but in my region around Albany, NY and the surrounding areas, there a lot of competition, keeping rates at bay all the time. Wages remain the same way.

I now am currently hauling propane in the Northeast, a lucrative job in the winter, but on the verge of literally stopping right now due to season being done. I'm out pounding the pavement daily, and obviously going to the extremes of joining trucking forums now I'm so desperate... Now my thinking has switched to looking for work outside the northeast, hoping the midwest or thereabouts would be a bit more productive.

My point is, you'd think a guy like me and many of us with a little background in just about all phases of the business could get a job anywhere...so I used to think. Not so much right now. I was really seriously hallucinating lately about getting into a used truck again and bustin' my arse to create another specialized deal to create a job for myself again, but after eavesdropping in on you guys' experiences in the field right now, I'm a little bit leary.

So now what do I do...remain in a survival mode like the rest, keep pounding the pavement to no avail, or what?

Tough decision. Anyways, didn't mean to get so long-winded guys. I enjoyed your honest opinions. Keep on truckin', hang in there, and eventually it'll turn around. I truly believe EVERYTHING is cyclictic.

If you have having a problem finding another job I would guess the number of jobs you have had the last couple of years is the main reason. 10 jobs in 2 years or so is very high. Most carriers want to see no more than 3 jobs in 2 years.

Most people are making changes in order to survive. For some it may mean running to other areas of the country to find loads. For others, it may mean relocating to another region.

You are right about everything running in cycles.

[lowrange]

I am glad you are getting good rates, lowrange. Are those gross or truck money? Flatbed rates have been pretty flat (no pun intended). Most flat bed rates that I am seeing range from around $1.40-1.80. $2.00 rates are still around but not as common. We do some seasonal freight that paid a little over $2.00, but the heavy rains pretty much killed our season this spring. There were some who came in and undercut prices which also hurt the season. I did pull a load the other day that paid $2.10. That is one of the highest rate that I have seen lately. There are many more close to $1/mile than $2/mile. I do see some upward movement, but not nearly enough. There are still too many fingers in the pie and too many who are willing to haul those cheaper loads. It makes it much more difficult to get a better rate. We are still basically in a survival mode. At least our volume is coming up somewhat. Fuel is on it's way up so that should help push rates up. Higher fuel should also force more carriers and owner operators out of business. We still need to reduce capacity about 20% to have a major impact.

By 'linehaul', I mean gross, of course. I get 62%. On top of that, I get about 17 cpm fuel loaded and empty. So, I guess I went to California for about $1.90/mile all in. The one to Baltimore today, about $1.65 all in. And, for anyone reading this, remembering I am not under my own authority and I pull a company trailer. Come to think of it, I wasn't doing nearly so well with a van.

[lowrange]

This thread is pretty enlightening for me. It's information coming right from the horse's mouth, not the other end.

I'm a 30 year-in-the-business driver/former owner op., who has seen a lot of changes over the years. I got out in 2006 due to the rising costs, and a million-mile truck that was paid for but nickel & diming me to the point I couldn't hang on any more.

For instance, my last truck was a '97 379 with an N-14. If it weren't for that bullet-proof motor and my ability to fix a lot of things myself, it would have been a lot harder.

When I blew a rear in the spring of '06, I made the decision to buy a used cut-off with freshened up suspension and differentials out of a wreck. I unbolted my old worn out stuff and rolled the "new" back underneath and rebolted. For $3K, I was in better shape than most would have been. Trouble was, I was out of money and needed to get going and build myself back up. Unfortunately, I let the well get a little too dry, and ended up selling the truck and try the job market, with the intentions of working for a while until I get another deal in a niche and another truck.

Now I've found myself scratching around since then, having had about 10 different jobs since. Something always seems to change for one reason or another. The biggest complaint I have is, wages...I try to stay in a specialized niche such as heavy haul or oversized, but that freight is down dramatically along with all the rest. Tanker work has always been a good fallback as well, but in my region around Albany, NY and the surrounding areas, there a lot of competition, keeping rates at bay all the time. Wages remain the same way.

I now am currently hauling propane in the Northeast, a lucrative job in the winter, but on the verge of literally stopping right now due to season being done. I'm out pounding the pavement daily, and obviously going to the extremes of joining trucking forums now I'm so desperate... Now my thinking has switched to looking for work outside the northeast, hoping the midwest or thereabouts would be a bit more productive.

My point is, you'd think a guy like me and many of us with a little background in just about all phases of the business could get a job anywhere...so I used to think. Not so much right now. I was really seriously hallucinating lately about getting into a used truck again and bustin' my arse to create another specialized deal to create a job for myself again, but after eavesdropping in on you guys' experiences in the field right now, I'm a little bit leary.

So now what do I do...remain in a survival mode like the rest, keep pounding the pavement to no avail, or what?

Tough decision. Anyways, didn't mean to get so long-winded guys. I enjoyed your honest opinions. Keep on truckin', hang in there, and eventually it'll turn around. I truly believe EVERYTHING is cyclictic.

Is a downward spiral considered cyclic? Seriously, all this we are talking about and I don't think we've yet to feel what it means for the government to just blow up in debt. We were slowly killing ourselves before TARP last fall, now we've taken the whole bottle. Again, I don't think we've yet to see the impact, but that could still take 10 years playing out, as far as I know.

In trucking, there could definitely be a short term bounce for a few years, particularly if a bunch of guys go out of business first.

Have you jacked up your record with all those job changes? Yours is a situation I've wondered about, the ability to simply fall back on a company job.

I don't know, I'd go to Alaska if it meant steady work. I hope I don't have to, but like Sam Kinison used to teach us, go where the food is.