Is it that bad?

[merrick4]

According to this article it seems pretty bad. I know as a company driver I have been doing a lot of sitting. Would like to hear how you guys are doing or any other insight you might have into the following article. Was thinking of getting a truck in a month or so but I think I might wait.




FEATURE-US truckers grim as freight slows, future clouds
Mon Apr 9, 2007 3:27 PM ET



(Paragraph 18 contains language that may be offensive to some readers.)

By Nick Carey

DAVENPORT, Iowa, April 9 (Reuters) - Every hour that truck-driving team Barbara and Robert Skeel sit around waiting for a load to haul, they're losing money.

"Business is pretty bad," said Barbara, the more vocal half of this man-and-wife team, while killing time at the Flying J truck stop in eastern Iowa. "Not just for us. Everyone is feeling the pressure right now."

The Skeels -- a driving team for more than 20 years -- hire out their truck to a company that contracts for FedEx Corp. <FDX> express freight unit FedEx Custom Critical that specializes in time-sensitive freight. Driving teams are ideal for moving goods quickly as they can alternate at the wheel without stopping to rest as single drivers must do by law.

After waiting for nearly 48 hours, the Skeels were finally told they would get a load heading to Florida, where they live.

"We've been stuck here making no money," Robert said glumly, a lit cigarette hanging precariously from his lip.

Interviews with other truckers in Iowa, along Interstate 80 -- a major commercial artery stretching 2,900 miles coast to coast from downtown San Francisco to the suburbs of New York -- paint a gloomy picture of weak freight volumes and pricing pressures reflecting the slowdown in the U.S. trucking sector.

Weighed down by the woes of the domestic auto makers in Detroit and the U.S. housing market, the truck companies and analysts say a recovery may come sometime this year, later than originally hoped, but no one knows for sure.

"We're in no-man's land," said Morgan Keegan analyst Art Hatfield, who covers the sector. "The economy doesn't seem to be worsening, but so far we haven't seen much sign of improvement either."

Meanwhile, driver Doug Raines, 41, a St. Louis-based independent contractor, who like the Skeels owns his own truck that he hires out, says simply: "Business is bad."

"There are too many trucks out there at the moment chasing too little business," said Raines, heading West with a load of beer. "I've had to turn down some business because the price was so low I would have lost money."

UNCERTAIN PROSPECTS

The first quarter is always a slow one for the U.S. trucking industry, with January and February particularly quiet after the fourth-quarter peak shopping season culminating at the end of December.

The 2006 peak season never came, as retailers kept inventories low amid lackluster holiday consumer spending leading to disappointing results for publicly-traded truckers.

This has left trucking companies keeping a keen eye out for signs that U.S. economic growth will pick up again. Although truck freight volumes improved in March, analysts said expectations for first-quarter results are quite low and doubt the trucking industry's hopes of a second-quarter recovery will be realized.

"The economic data that we've had so far this year reinforces a more pessimistic view," said Kevin Kirkeby, an equity research analyst at Standard & Poor's. "The recovery seems to be getting pushed further out."

Kirkeby said Standard & Poor's still expects to see the trucking sector pick up in the second half of the year as U.S. economic growth picks up.

At the Flying J truck stop, Wesley Wiley, a 14-year veteran who drives for St. Cloud Minnesota-based Anderson Trucking Service Inc., is waiting to haul a large Deere & Co. <DE> bulldozer to Missouri.

Business improved in March, he says, but he's worried.

"In a market like this, I have to stay a step ahead of the game," said Wiley, 38, from Winfield, Louisiana. "I'm hauling ass and dropping as many loads as I can to make a living."

Another driver, who declined to give his name but said he had 30 years of experience and was hauling goods for Swift Transportation Co. Inc. <SWFT>, predicts the worst is yet to come.

"It's getting harder to get a decent rate per mile," he said. "When April's this bad, the summer will be worse."

Most truckers get paid by the mile, meaning the majority of conversations with truckers focus on that rate.

Dan Skubiz, a senior equity analyst at St. Louis-based Missouri Valley Partners, which manages assets of close to $2 billion and holds a number of transport stocks, said it is difficult to tell what the future holds for truckers in the near-term.

"The big question I am hearing in the trucking industry right now is: How is this all going to play out?" he said.

"And the concern is that maybe the second half (of 2007) isn't going to be as good as people hope," Skubiz added.

That uncertainty also raises the question of when to invest in trucking stocks. Typically, industry analysts recommend getting in at the bottom of a cycle and benefiting as business booms.

"But nobody really knows for sure where the bottom is at this point," Skubiz said. "It's hard to read the tea leaves."

For truckers, including teams like the Skeels, that uncertainty is much closer to home.

"Things may get harder for a while," Barbara Skeel said, staring pensively out the window of the Flying J at an overcast Iowa sky.



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[allan5oh]

I haven't sat a day for about a year now. It all depends on the company and how insulated they are from freight slow downs.

[merrick4]

I haven't sat a day for about a year now. It all depends on the company and how insulated they are from freight slow downs.

And what do you haul? I assume right now the reefer units are not as affected.

By the way, I was reading anothe article and this caught my eye:

From 2001 to 2003 slack freight volumes forced more than 10,000 U.S. trucking companies out of business

I've only been in this industry for about a year now, so I wasn't really reading trucking news back then, but nonetheless that statement surprised me.

[allan5oh]

Dry van, they seem to have a lot of good regular customers. I haven't hauled to a "new" customer in a long time.

[Ian Williams]

Its also the nature of the beast for the hotshot folk to sit for a while then hammmer down on a lot that has to be there "yesterday".

If you are sitting on a regular basis find a new gig. There is plenty of freight out there.

[merrick4]

Its also the nature of the beast for the hotshot folk to sit for a while then hammmer down on a lot that has to be there "yesterday".

If you are sitting on a regular basis find a new gig. There is plenty of freight out there.

Well that's why I started this thread. A reporter talked to a few people wrote the story and moved on. It's the nature of the beast with regard to journalism. Of course they did mention analyst comments which would carry weight, but I was just interested in comments from people that frequent this board with regard to this issue.

Yes I do need to find a new gig, and have already been accpeted by Melton, but there were some issues that she mentioned that I'm not too comfortable with. I don't want to be jumping around from company to company either.I would like to get out of dry van (actually I haul reefer) for the simple fact that I'm competing with everyone from 50 year old ladies to every other person that wants to drive. I figure flatbedding would cut down on that competition. (no disrespect intended to older woman or men, but obviously less competition means more money for me).

I'm pulling a flatbed for myself and not having a problem at all. You need to watch out for new articles. Talk to enough people and you can bias the news in any direction you want to make something look worse than it is.

I interviewed 1,000 truckers yesterday and all but 3 truckers said it was real bad out there.

Report: Talking to 3 truckers today gave a grim report on a dark outlook for freight.

[rank]

Like Steve, we are a carrier.

Unlike Steve, I agree with the article. Our current cost is $1.42 including drivers. I would say flatbed rates range from $1.50-$1.75/mile so we make a theoretical $.20/mile. But our dead miles are at least 30%...which means real rates for all miles are more like $1.05-$1.22. At these rates we'd be losing money.

All winter I kept hearing "Wait 'till March". March came and went and I've seen no real consistent increase in rates. If anything I think rates have gone down. Today someone told me they were paying $.57/mile for 20 of deck, 17,000 lbs Wilmington DE to Toronto ON. I have NEVER seen anything less than $1 for something like that.

Because the equipment is paid for, and because we don't have flats, and because we have good outbound rates, we are able to decline cheap freight and cherry pick the better stuff. The $2/loaded mile line still has not been crossed.

[no_worries]

The volume is better than Jan-March, but that's to be expected. It's not as high as it was this time last year and certainly not like the few years previous to that. Rates in general are not reflecting volume. They're reflecting too many trucks who are taking whatever they can get. Just a few observations from the reefer/dry van side.

[Ian Williams]

Housing Construction is dead in the water. Compared to this time last year or two years ago.

I wonder how many veteran O/Os like GMAN have both a flat/stepdeck and a van/reefer to hedge their bets.

[LOAD IT]

Looks like everyone they interviewed was fleased to a company. The man with authority, has authority. He controls his own destiny, not some 23 year old dispatcher. Get your truck, your authority, your customers and a few good brokers.

[mike3fan]

Things seem to be better the last 3-4 weeks in the tanker business,haven't sat yet but have had a few extra deadhead miles.

[GMAN]

Things have picked up somewhat. I don't have any problems getting outbound freight, but it can be challenging to get something coming back to where I need to be at a rate which I will accept. I have one company which whom I do business that should run strong for at least another month. I could have had one of their loads tomorrow had I been able to get back home. They postponed the pickup until Monday so that I can get back. I have another shipper which whom I have been doing business who is just getting cranked up. I could likely do much more outbound business if I had the drivers. It was a much different story a few months ago. I am in Florida right now and will get a reload in the morning. I have received a number of calls about loads. None were great, but some were not too bad for Florida. I had several brokers call today with loads which paid in the $1.50/mile range. Most were around $1.30 or so. Some areas of the country are better than others. For the most part, if you want to find a load, you can. The problem is that there are so many carriers and owner operators who are willing to settle for fuel money, rates are still way too low. There are good rates available, but you may need to work harder to find them. If you run your own authority, you will be much better off having at least some of your own shippers. All you need is one that will pay as agreed. I find some shippers would prefer dealing with a smaller carrier. They will probably get better service.

There is little question that the entire economy is sluggish right now. Things are improving and hopefully will continue to do so during the coming months. Things are much better than a few short months ago.

[Dejanh]

"In a market like this, I have to stay a step ahead of the game," said Wiley, 38, from Winfield, Louisiana. "I'm hauling ass and dropping as many loads as I can to make a living."

Hm, thats where the problem lies, people are in this buisiness just to make a living , and thats really sad ...If you have been O/O and worked well last year you should be able to sit it out and not be forced to fork for cheap.....I have new truck with 2000 in expenses at the end of the month on the truck only and i can sit my ass till December if need to be but i aint gonna be FORCED into doing anything. Those that are forced dont need to cry and blame anyone but themselves..

California freeze had alot to do with this situation i think and this particular article has taken into concideration lives of a couple who run Expedited freight which is well known to have Loooong wait times. Slowdown aint got nothing to do with them waiting as i have known people to wait 3-4 days running expedited freight for Fedex 2-3 years ago..

Article is somewhat true but it doesnt paint the best picture of the situation, why arent they talking about how much shippers acctualy pay for their freight to be hauled and whats the brokers cut and whats the truckers????

There is no real slowdown, fake one, yes !

[heavyhaulerss]

freight has just started picking up in my area. ( last 3 weeks) before that... real slow. everyone has there reasons on why it's slow & when it will pick up. i do beleive the home sales has a lot to do with it. if people are buying homes & building new ones & at record numbers as have been in past years, then freight generally moves. lumber in demand plus other materials for the new construction & furnishing of a new or existing home. plus the auto industry has a lot to do with steel hauling, as they use quite a bit.

[solo379]

Well, I'd say it's about as close to truth, as it gets! :sad:
And anybody, who don't see that, are in, for a rude awakening.
Don't get me wrong, it doesn't mean, that some people, couldn't make some money. But the whole picture, doesn't look bright!

[LOAD IT]

Well, I'd say it's about as close to truth, as it gets! :sad:
And anybody, who don't see that, are in, for a rude awakening.
Don't get me wrong, it doesn't mean, that some people, couldn't make some money. But the whole picture, doesn't look bright!

The whole picture doent look bright at all!!! Its almost May and things just havent JUMPED off. Up until last year, spring time (starting in early to mid March) was the time to go trucking. The housing market is definitely a factor as is the auto market. I think this wacky weather has also caused some issues, I'm no farmer. Seems like more nursery and Florida produce would have been moving by now. I like Florida produce and nursery, charge arm and a leg to go in, get great rates coming out. Just not seeing it yet.

[no_worries]

Actually, from what I can tell, volumes out of FL and the NW have been pretty decent. However, the rates aren't reflecting that. There hasn't been been any shortage of offers for me, just a shortage of offers worth accepting. There are way too many trucks out there willing to haul for garbage.