Is the Recession over?

[kipwinger]

Is now a good time to persue a trucking position as a starter with no experience? Will they sideline me
at Flying J for weeks and give the old farts all the runs?

[geeshock]

they won't sideline you but the recession is far from over

[Mr. Ford95]

Since your making the least as a new driver they will run the dogpiss out of you vs an older driver that is making much more per mile than you. More money in the compaines pocket if you run it. Now if have no freight, they have no freight, nobody will move. As for the recession, were still in the middle stages of it, it's going to get better but right now the small gains we've made are starting to tank again.

[Malaki86]

I dunno - I'm still running my tail off. I left the house last Tuesday @ 8am. Between then and now, I've driven 4,251 miles. I still have just under 1,000 miles to go to finish out this run on the 20th. I've ran like this since I came back to Celadon at the end of March.

edit: it would've been more miles, but I had to do a 34hr restart that ended this morning @ 5am.

[GMAN]

The recession is not over and I believe that we will still see a dramatic downturn before this thing ends. There is freight, but rates are down over a few weeks ago. Rates do not usually begin to decline for at least a couple of months. That in itself tells me that the recession is NOT over. In fact, things could be getting much worse. Hopefully, I am wrong.

As a new driver this is probably a good time to get started as long as you have a clean background. We are expected to lose around 275,000 drivers next year as CSA2010 gets in full swing. That could create some opportunities for those with a clean work record and MVR. As someone else mentioned, you are likely to be more busy than the older drivers due to the lower pay scale that you will be paid compared to a seasoned driver.

[geeshock]

I dunno - I'm still running my tail off. I left the house last Tuesday @ 8am. Between then and now, I've driven 4,251 miles. I still have just under 1,000 miles to go to finish out this run on the 20th. I've ran like this since I came back to Celadon at the end of March.

edit: it would've been more miles, but I had to do a 34hr restart that ended this morning @ 5am.

thats what I wanna hear, lol. start orientation on the 23rd

[Malaki86]

thats what I wanna hear, lol. start orientation on the 23rd

Good deal - you can take a bit of my miles (just a TINY bit of em) so I can rest a little.

[One]

I just know that my company is slammed and if there were 3 of me id run 3 trucks. Also the Truckstops are packed as the havent been in a long time, so its not just us...Even weekends they are busier so...But like i tell anyone if u have other options, dont go into trucking...many drivers get broken within the 1st 6 mos and end up worse off than before..

[silvan]

That in itself tells me that the recession is NOT over. In fact, things could be getting much worse. Hopefully, I am wrong.

I have that impression too. I got geared up to dive back into this thing when I picked up a paper and saw there were actually jobs I would never dream of taking advertised in there for the first time in a couple of years. They were even advertising for a trucking school again. Wow. For the longest time, the only ad in the paper was for that infamous bottom feeder from Utah.

I just went on a little road trip to go get fingerprinted today, and it looked pretty bleak. My world has really contracted since I hung it up, and I rarely get more than two miles from my house. I hadn't driven any distance on the Interstate in some time.

Where were the trucks?

I didn't pass any Schneider or Swift trucks at all. I used to live my life planning how I was going to get around all the Schneider and Swift trucks without holding up the fourwheelers too badly. I passed one JB Hunt, one Bowman, one Old Dominion, one TMC, some red Peterbilt with a flatbed, and maybe half a dozen generic dry boxes. This was on one of the busiest freight corridors in my state, which is normaly (from my two years out of date perspective) jam packed with trucks 24 hours a day.

It was kind of scary. It doesn't look like trucking is back by any stretch of the imagination.

I'm hoping that was just an unusual sample though. I also walked straight into the DMV and got through everything with no waiting at all, but they had people piling out the doors by the time I left. Maybe I just caught everything in a rare lull.

I'm hoping. But in the meantime, I'm planning to squirrel away a lot of nuts and keep my head down. I think this is just the eye of the storm right now.

[GMAN]

There are still a lot of trucks on the roads where I have been running. Parking continues to be a problem. There are still more people fighting for the same loads which drives rates down. We still have more capacity than freight, but you can still make a decent living.

[Rev.]

The recession is not over and I believe that we will still see a dramatic downturn before this thing ends. There is freight, but rates are down over a few weeks ago. Rates do not usually begin to decline for at least a couple of months. That in itself tells me that the recession is NOT over.

A shift in freight availability over the course of a few weeks is not an indication of the health of the overall economy.

[GMAN]

A shift in freight availability over the course of a few weeks is not an indication of the health of the overall economy.

Actually, it does or can. The trucking business has normal business cycles which are directly related to the economy. When those normal business cycles are interrupted then it can be an indicator of external forces which may be influencing the industry. For instance, much of trucking involves working with manufacturing, such as the auto industry, and construction, which is the building industry. If one or both of those segments are off then it will directly affect the availability of freight. When that happens the the trucking industry will be affected. When construction is booming and manufacturing is doing well then trucking will also do well. When either or both are off then it will affect trucking in a negative manner. We are usually the first to realize a slow down and the first to see a pick up in the economy. If you stop to think about it neither of these segments can survive without trucking. It is trucking that brings the raw materials to manufacturing and then haul them to the various points of distribution. It is the same with construction. Trucking usually doesn't begin to slow until about October. This year it started around August. That is a change in the normal business cycle. The same thing happened 2 years ago when the economy first took a dive. It is not yet as bad as then, but both saw a dramatic change in the normal business cycle.

There are some who are staying busy. We are getting into the holiday season. Rates are down. The fact that rates are down is yet another indicator of a slowing of the economy. Rates are directly tied to demand and capacity. When capacity is high and demand low then rates will be down. When capacity is low and demand high then rates will rise.

Any deviation from the norm can be an indicator of what is going on in the economy. Some will ignore the signs and others will plan accordingly. I will be one of those who will plan accordingly. I would rather operate and plan based upon a slowing economy than plan for a healthy economy and be disappointed.

There are others who feel the same as I do about what is going on with the economy.

[Rev.]

There are some who are staying busy. We are getting into the holiday season. Rates are down. The fact that rates are down is yet another indicator of a slowing of the economy.

Maybe rates being down is an indicator of an inability to negotiate decent ones. My rates have been doing great (some of the best rates I've seen with a dry van, including the time I was doing military freight), and I've been busy as all heck ever since I went back OTR. Therefore based on your "couple of weeks" economic model, the economy is obviously roaring along.

[Joey Shabadoo]

maybe rates being down is an indicator of an inability to negotiate decent ones.

Bingo!!!!!

[Rev.]

As far as parking is concerned, most of the truck stops I've been in have been ghost towns. That includes a much of the Northeast and Midwest. It's been a long time since I've had to fight for a parking spot.

I've also noticed that the repair shops attached to truck stops have been extremely busy, which would indicate that things are doing much better now (since maintenance is generally the first thing to get put on the back burner when rates are down).

GMAN, while your elementary business lesson is generally correct, I'm not seeing what you are at all. When I can get over $2.50 per mile OUT of the Northeast heading back to the Midwest, then that indicates to me that things are not as bleak as you're painting them. When I can do that multiple times (like I have over the past few weeks), then that indicates to me that we are on an upswing.

Frankly, I wish I had time to haul some of that holiday freight. I have a feeling I'm going to miss out on it this year.

[GMAN]

Maybe rates being down is an indicator of an inability to negotiate decent ones. My rates have been doing great (some of the best rates I've seen with a dry van, including the time I was doing military freight), and I've been busy as all heck ever since I went back OTR. Therefore based on your "couple of weeks" economic model, the economy is obviously roaring along.

I have been getting some decent rates the last several months, but I have noticed a drop. I am not the only one. I have spoken to others who pull various types of freight and they are seeing the same thing. I have one company that I haul for and their rates are the same year around. The only problem is that they ship everything the last week of the month. I have a friend who is pulling a van and although he is staying busy, he has seen a drop in rates in the Midwest and Northeast. I am being offered some rates less than $2/mile and some are no longer willing to negotiate much due to the over capacity of equipment. It is fortunate that I don't have to take those cheaper loads. There are some out here who are hauling loads out of the Northeast for less than $1/mile. That is what is really going on in the current market.

[GMAN]

As far as parking is concerned, most of the truck stops I've been in have been ghost towns. That includes a much of the Northeast and Midwest. It's been a long time since I've had to fight for a parking spot.

I've also noticed that the repair shops attached to truck stops have been extremely busy, which would indicate that things are doing much better now (since maintenance is generally the first thing to get put on the back burner when rates are down).

The shops may be busy but that is not necessarily a good indicator without knowing what they are doing in those shops. I have spoken to some shops and they tell me that they are selling more used and recapped tires rather than new. I stopped at a TA in Indiana a few weeks ago to have a muffler clamp put on my truck. They were not very busy. They were mostly doing flats. No matter what is going on with the economy, there will be trucks with flats that must be repaired. On the other hand, I have seen some shops who do seem to be staying busy. I stopped at a Petro not long after stopping at that TA and they were very busy when I stopped.

When shops are busy it could also mean that carriers and owner operators are trying to repair their equipment rather than buy new. When equipment sales pick up dramatically, then I would be more inclined to say that the economy is turning around.

GMAN, while your elementary business lesson is generally correct, I'm not seeing what you are at all. When I can get over $2.50 per mile OUT of the Northeast heading back to the Midwest, then that indicates to me that things are not as bleak as you're painting them. When I can do that multiple times (like I have over the past few weeks), then that indicates to me that we are on an upswing.

Frankly, I wish I had time to haul some of that holiday freight. I have a feeling I'm going to miss out on it this year.

I am glad that things have turned around for you, Rev. Van freight does tend to pick up as we get into the holidays. There are some types of seasonal freight that usually pays well, such as Christmas trees. Most rates coming out of the Northeast tend to be lower than going in unless you want to stay in the Northeast. That seems to be true no matter what time of the year. A friend of mine has been running mostly the Midwest and Northeast with some Southeast. He pulls a van and has seen rates drop dramatically the last several weeks. Only a couple of months ago he has gotten over $3/mile on several loads. Most of what he has been running the last several months has been over $2/mile with little deadhead. But that is with a van and he has been careful where he has been running. He has been having to work harder to get the better paying loads. I think that he is now averaging around $1.70 for all miles. That is a drop over what he was doing only a couple of months ago. I expect things to pick up for him during the holidays. At least I hope that they do.

In talking to several brokers they have told me the same thing that I am seeing myself. It is difficult to negotiate much when you have scared owner operators or carriers who are willing to bid $0.75/mile to haul a load out of the Northeast just to keep the wheels moving. Most flat bed rates that I have seen are about $1.10-1.20 coming out of the Northeast. With some deadhead I can do better than those rates. I won't haul freight at those rates, but many will.

[Rev.]

[B]I am glad that things have turned around for you, Rev. Van freight does tend to pick up as we get into the holidays. There are some types of seasonal freight that usually pays well, such as Christmas trees.

Haven't hauled a lick of it this year.

Most rates coming out of the Northeast tend to be lower than going in unless you want to stay in the Northeast. That seems to be true no matter what time of the year.

Except that isn't what I've been seeing at all.

A friend of mine has been running mostly the Midwest and Northeast with some Southeast. He pulls a van and has seen rates drop dramatically the last several weeks.

Your friend's anecdotal evidence is as useless as your own anecdotal evidence, which is as useless as my anecdotal evidence that shows quite the opposite. That would be like saying that global warming is real because there were a couple of warm days in November. You know darn well that's not how it works.

[GMAN]

Haven't hauled a lick of it this year.



Except that isn't what I've been seeing at all.



Your friend's anecdotal evidence is as useless as your own anecdotal evidence, which is as useless as my anecdotal evidence that shows quite the opposite. That would be like saying that global warming is real because there were a couple of warm days in November. You know darn well that's not how it works.

It is still early for Christmas trees and some of the other seasonal freight. Hopefully, it will be a good freight season.

It isn't just my friend who has told me about those rates. I am glad that you have had a few good paying loads out of the Northeast. How long are those runs you are hauling for $2.50? It would be interesting to hear from others as to what rates they are seeing out of the Northeast.

[Rev.]

How long are those runs you are hauling for $2.50?

Last one was a little over 1400 miles.