[Useless]

Originally Posted by golfhobo

You would think... by now... but, IF it went in between Java and Northwestern Australia.... the currents would continue to carry the debris southwest around the corner of Australia and down near Perth. Even IF something washed up on the coast near where I described, I'm not sure there is so much as a fishing village up there. Well, actually.... Port Hedlund is close. See this map:

Australia Map

Of course, IF it made land.... there is nothing out there but the Great Sandy and Gibson deserts.

Update: Not so sure of my theory anymore. I heard that the Indonesian navy WAS conducting search in the waters south of Java (I think.) But.... it's still a big triangle. Also.... hard to believe Aussie Jindalee radar system didn't see it there.

Update 2: Chinese possibly have found a pinger signal near my "other" suspected site - halfway up that arc between Java and their first search area. I hope they're right!

Either way, I hope I'm right that the pilot(s) were trying to return to KL.... and not trying to disappear in the Indian Ocean.

Have you seen the recently released full transcript of ATC comms? Media keeps saying "nothing abnormal" but.... I see two instances of possible "confusion" in the pilot's responses... and then there's that OTHER pilot that contacted them and only got a garbled, mumbling response. Could have been a very slow decompression/oxygen loss.

Hey, Golf!!

I've really gotta' hand it to you. You've put a lot of work into trying to think this thing through. The people in charge seem rather encouraged by the latest pings. What will come of it?? We can only wonder. Still, you've exhibited some very sound path roads of logic and reason in following this.

My hat's off to you!!

[Useless]

Not Official.......Yet........But It Looks Like They're Closing In On It.

The team of international investigators hunting for Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 has "unquestionably" located the missing jetliner and could soon have high resolution images of the wreck site, an expert in deep sea recoveries of ships and planes told FoxNews.com.

'There is virtually no chance that the pings picked up by ships towing sophisticated listening devices could be anything other than signals emitted by the plane's flight data recorder, or "black box," David Mearns, of Blue Water Recoveries, a United Kingdom-based company that holds the Guinness World Record for the deepest ocean recovery and has assisted searches for sunken planes.

"This cannot be coming from anything else," Mearns said. "This is the best equipment there is, and the signal is unmistakable.”

If Mearns is correct, what remains is to pinpoint the precise location, map the debris field on the seabed and begin recovering parts of the plane and, possibly, the bodies of victims. The site is some 15,000 feet, or 2.8 miles deep, Mearns said, and in a remote part of the Indian Ocean that is deeper than the Titanic's final resting site and too deep for humans to dive.

Mearns, who is not involved in the effort but knows people who are and has been through the process himself, said he believes Angus Houston, the retired Australian air chief marshal heading the Joint Agency Coordination Center, is deliberately awaiting incontrovertible visual evidence out of respect for the passengers' families. The search for the Boeing 777, which disappeared March 8 with 239 passengers and crew, has been flawed from the beginning. So far, an estimated $50 million has been spent on the effort, which involves teams from the U.S., Australia, Great Britain, China and Malaysia.

"The reason they haven’t announced it is what the families have gone through in terms of all the false leads, and they are demanding that they see pieces of wreckage," Mearns said.

Houston himself on Tuesday gave his strongest indication yet that he believes the pings mean the searchers are above the wreck site.

"(The analysts) therefore assess that the transmission was not of natural origin and was likely sourced from specific electronic equipment," Houston said. "They believe the signals to be consistent with the specification and description of a flight data recorder.

“I believe we’re searching in the right area,” he added, “but we need to visually identify aircraft wreckage before we confirm with certainty that this is the final resting place.”

If the pings are indeed from the black box, the searchers may have won a race against time. The batteries that power the recorders are only built to last about a month, and that's how much time has elapsed since the plane disappeared. Once the battery dies, finding the plane could become nearly impossible, according to experts.

Mearns laid out the search process in phases, with Phase I, a search for a floating debris field, having failed. Because investigators spent weeks looking in the wrong places, tell-tale pieces of the plane have long since dispersed or sunk, he said. The next step was to hunt for the plane by listening underwater for signals transmitted from the black box, an effort that even Mearns saw as nearly hopeless until ships with sophisticated listening equipment began picking up signals in recent days.

Mearns' company set a record in 1996 by probing the wreck of the World War II German blockade runner the "MV Rio Grande," at a depth of 20,000 feet in the South Atlantic. It also took part in the recovery of the cockpit voice recorder from South African Airways Flight 295, which went down in the Indian Ocean in 1987, killing all 159 aboard.

Now, investigators are working to "box in" the source of the ping first picked up by a Chinese ship, then heard again on Sunday by crew aboard Australian naval ship Ocean Shield, which has a sophisticated pinger locator on loan from the U.S. Navy. They have to hope the battery holds out long enough to help them triangulate the box's location.

By crisscrossing over the area where the pings were detected, searchers can narrow the search field from 300 square nautical miles or so to 50 or less, Mearns said. Once that is done, the next phase -- a side-scan sonar search of the seabed using the Bluefin 21, a submersible vehicle that can drop down 2.5 miles to map the seabed. That tool, 21 inches in diameter and shaped like a torpedo, owned by U.S. Navy contractor Phoenix International and now aboard the Ocean Shield, will help craft a route and plan for the next phase, carried out by an unmanned ROV, or remotely-operated vehicle. "The Bluefin has a camera that can get an entire map of the debris field, with high-resolution images," Mearns said.

Once investigators on the surface have the wreckage mapped, the ROV will be sent down to recover the black box. Information gleaned from that will tell them what else they need to recover. In the case of TWA Flight 800, which went down off the shore of New York's Long Island in 1996, investigators recovered nearly all of the plane, reconstructing it in a hangar in an effort to determine what caused the crash. In other cases of plane crashes over the ocean, only the black box was recovered, because information contained in it answered the key questions.

"Investigators will recover whatever they feel is necessary, depending on what information they get from the black box," Mearns said. "That information may direct them to pick up a larger or smaller amount of wreckage.”

The ROV could also be used to recover bodies, he said. In the case of Air France Flight 447, which went down in the Atlantic in 2009 after departing from Brazil for Paris, 154 bodies were recovered during a process that involved robotic submarines and spanned two years. Some 74 bodies were never found.

While most of the work in recovering Flight 370 will be done aboard the Ocean Shield, the land-based component of the investigation will take place at the nearest sufficient port, in Perth, Australia, Mearns said.

[golfhobo]

Originally Posted by Useless

Hey, Golf!!

I've really gotta' hand it to you. You've put a lot of work into trying to think this thing through. The people in charge seem rather encouraged by the latest pings. What will come of it?? We can only wonder. Still, you've exhibited some very sound path roads of logic and reason in following this.

My hat's off to you!!

Thanks, Useless. But, it seems my theories were Partly wrong. Although... until they actually FIND it.... I'm not conceding totally! lol.

The original search area was based on an assumption that the plane turned left at the last known RADAR contact (in the strait of Malacca) and assuming fuel consumption, flying right over Indonesian landmass, to the southernmost point on the ARC. (I saw this graph somewhere.) That would have been the southernmost point to start searching... and they SAID that was what they would do.... and then work their way back in.

But, there was always this "possible" right turn towards the Andaman Islands. From there... the fuel wouldn't last as long and they SHOULD have been searching further UP the arc. NOW, they say it might have actually gone that way, and THEN skirted ADF systems on the western coast of Indonesia (who weren't giving us any information for weeks!)

I chose NOT to base my analysis on this "possible turn" north before heading south. I might have been wrong.

Unfortunately, they wasted the battery lifetime searching that far south. Remember my second theory... or the one that included the "string?" Once they decided that it DID fly up to the Andaman islands, for whatever reason, the "string" said they couldn't be that far south! So.... they moved the search area further north along the arc.

This became the search area that I mentioned could be the possible location (if my original theory was wrong.) And, it seems, this is where they are finding the possible pings from the black boxes.

Still don't know why or WHO chose that path! Still not sure it is there.

I think they are plotting the "expected" path due to the Indonesians not being willing to admit they didn't see it! Not SURE they went around the northern tip of Indonesia to avoid "sleeping" radar! They could end up at the SAME point IF they turned south through the Strait of Malacca, flew low and slower, possibly dumped fuel for an emergency landing, and then lost control while the RIGHT engine flamed out.... causing a slow turn to the right... and ending up exactly where they say they are getting "pings."

I can't deny the "pings" are where they say they are. Still... at my "second" location. But, it doesn't PROVE they went around the horn. IF they did it to avoid radar.... how do they KNOW it went that way? They are scoped in on a constant airspeed and altitude that they are only ASSUMING!

They are using a "string" that is of a certain length based on assumptions of airspeed, altitude, and fuel consumption. Not ONCE have I heard a theory that includes dumping fuel for a return to base scenario with a blown/burnt out front landing gear!

They are assuming nefarious actions by the crew OR a hijacker (without a cause) and NOT the most reasonable expectation that the pilot was trying to save the plane and the passengers!

I HOPE these pings are for real... and that they locate the plane on the ocean floor and FINISH this thing! Then... ONLY the FDR will possibly provide some answers. But... I wish they would STOP convulsing over the fact that they haven't found any "wreckage" FLOATING on the surface in the SEARCH AREA! After 30 days.... it would be long gone SOUTHEAST!

Still... too bad they wasted time at the southernmost possible location on the arc! I understand their reasoning at the time... but... I NEVER believed that was the route, airspeed and altitude of the plane.

And now... it seems that they are starting to come in line with MY thinking! lol.

And with the batteries about dead.... too little, too late!

[Mr. Ford95]

Well, since it's been more than a week since the battery ceased to exist on the black boxes several attempts to send a robot down have proved tough. On the first attempt, it reached it's max depth of 15K ft and immediately re-surfaced.....data showed nothing. Ocean is pretty deep there. 2nd attempt didn't even come close to the same depth before it had a malfunction and came back up. Why not get James Cameron's sub that went down into the Mariana Trench at around 35K ft? That is considered the deepest point around that region and can obviously reach to where the plane might be laying at a shallower depth but deeper than the robots can go.

[GMAN]

I feel so sorry for the families of those who were on that flight. It has been a real yo yo effect with their emotions. First, they find some debris that "might" be part of the plane. Then, they find that it has nothing to do with the missing plane.

[Useless]

Originally Posted by golfhobo

Thanks, Useless. But, it seems my theories were Partly wrong. Although... until they actually FIND it.... I'm not conceding totally! lol.

Well, in this case it's not really a matter of being right or wrong. Even the professionals are confounded here. Still, you've demonstrated some impressive measures of objective analysis and critical scrutiny.

[GMAN]

If the plane did crash into the ocean, it will be more difficult to find it without the transponder signal.

[Mr. Ford95]

We may eventually find it if we keep looking but it could take 2 years to locate it. The robot moves so slow, takes 6 days to cover the same ground the towed array behind a ship can cover. Still looking at a very large square as they were unable to get enough pings to close the target zone down any smaller. It was closed down some, but IIRC, they said it was like 20k sq miles still. Depending on depth, may have to build a robot that can go deeper to recover parts and pieces.

[golfhobo]

Mr. Ford: It is my understanding that the bottom there is NOT deeper than the UAV's can go (though close to their limit.) The earlier problems had something to do with the programming (?) Pretty sure it is working properly now. Any manned sub/DRV would (for some reason) not be equipped with the side scanning sonar, and be mostly dependent on visual search. This is not good enough when they haven't located a more precise area yet. What I don't like is that the UAV (if it gets a "hit") would have to resurface and have the sonar swapped out with a camera! Geez... is it so hard to have BOTH?

JUST heard that they are considering another method besides the Bluefin. Not sure what that could be BUT a manned DRV or sub, so.... maybe you're on to something. Not sure also about that 20k figure. They are concentrating on an arc that includes 4 ping detections from the TPL. Seems it shouldn't be THAT many square miles... but hard to tell by the graphic they show. I've really stopped watching to some extent.

At any rate... I heard that after 5 days, they had covered about 15% of the prime search area. That's not a bad rate. That leaves about 30 more days or less. Sounds better than 2 years. But... we'll have to wait it out.

Also.... IF they find the wreckage, the DRV's already exist to go to the depth needed to recover parts and pieces.

[Useless]

It has now been one month since Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 mysteriously vanished from the radar screens. The search, which has now become the most exhaustive and expensive aircraft search in history, has yielded sporadic clues as to the missing plane's whereabouts, but the precise location of the aircraft remains unknown.

Malaysian government officials, working in cooperation with American NTSB experts, now believe they have discovered the reason why Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 vectored off it's intended course. Ironically, they the have also made it clear that hopes of locating the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 that is now believed to be at the bottom of the Indian Ocean have grown slimmer. In fact, they now concede that the missing Boeing 777 may never be found.

The reason for growing pessimism in the search process is apparently based upon upon factors pertaining to the work histories of Flight 370's pilots, Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah, and First Officer Fariq Abdul Hamid.

Today, Malaysian government spokesperson, Fhauqui Suquee, disclosed that during the course of investigating the Boeing 777 pilots' backgrounds, it was discovered that both pilots had previously held visas which permitted them to work in The United States as truck drivers. Flight 370's Captain, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, had previously worked as a Lease Operator for C.R. England, was deeply in debt, and was being hounded by bill collectors for money he owed as result of breaking his lease.

First Officer Fariq Abdul Hamid drove as a trainee for SWIFT Transport. According to a SWIFT Transport dispatcher who has asked that his name not be revealed, Fariq Abdul Hamid and his trainer, driver Dhamitchu Sunhovabitch, were delivering a load of pet food from Chicago, Illinois to a grocery warehouse in San Marcos, Texas, when Fariq Abdul called the SWIFT dispatcher to report that their truck had run out of fuel in Las Cruces, New Mexico. The dispatcher confirmed that Sunhuvabitch is one of SWIFT Transport's most experienced trainers, with a career as a professional truck driver spanning nearly seven months, and logging a total of nearly 20,000 miles. Five and a half of those months have been spent as a trainer.

In an exclusive interview with CNN, Sunhovabitch stated that Hamid showed considerable promise as an OTR driver, having driven nearly 700 miles in just two week's time. "I don't know if that's a record for the most miles driven by a trainee in such a short period of time here, but if it isn't, it comes pretty close!!" "He (Hamid) was doing quite well, having only one wreck in his first four days as a trainee." "We were ready to assign him a truck when he received his job offer from Malaysia Airlines".